The mood at the GERD project site last Friday was one of accomplishment if not jubilation. High level federal officials visited the site and inspected construction progress, to encourage if not thank all those involved in the construction of the historic dam.
The GERD project is not only something that fills all Ethiopians with pride and hope for a better future. It is also a factor, if not a giant step towards vital regional cooperation between all the Nile riparian countries. Although the GERD project was most of the time the cause of diplomatic rows between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the light at the end of the tunnel in the long and arduous water diplomacy seems to have entered its final phase with recent talks in Washington that ended with a spirit of mutual understanding.
The management and top engineers from the Italian-based Salini Construction were also elated as they expressed their hope of starting power generation at the dam as soon as possible. They also expressed their pride at being part of this historic project that has earned them respect and deserved pride.
As one of the top management team at the site said last week, the remarkable progress at the construction site was mainly due to the new Ethiopian management team that took over the previous one and is overseeing the mechanical engineering work and proved more cooperative to do things according to schedule. The short hiccup that emerged shortly after the political reform process in the country is now over and the project has found a new momentum as it was evident from last week’s visit by high government officials and other stakeholders.
What lies behind all these positive accomplishments is however the strong sense of determination Ethiopians displayed since the onset of the project and the relentless energy articulated in its unflinching position as far as its national interests were concerned in the face of many ups and downs on the diplomatic front. Here too, the bitter resentments that all sides expressed in the earlier days of the water diplomacy surrounding the GERD project, are showing signs of abetment and a new light is appearing at the end of the otherwise dark tunnel that sometimes led to frustrations and threat of breakdown of talks.
Patience is a virtue as they often say. In diplomacy in particular, patience is a great virtue that pays good dividends at the end of the long journey. Cynics often say that diplomacy might turn out to be an exercise in deception. Contrary to this assumption, Ethiopian diplomacy has proved a rare exercise in honest bargaining with a clear path to follow and a crystal clear objective to attain, and a national interest to defend. That is why Ethiopian diplomats did not bend under pressure or make undue or underserved concessions when it comes to defending national interests in general and Ethiopia’s interest on the GERD.
The other factor that led to the present diplomatic entente between the various players in the GERD controversy was US willingness to step in and help remove the dark clouds that were visible on the diplomatic front. This was a crucial turning point that could help change what was a potentially disastrous confrontation into a friendly and pragmatic approach.
Washington might have its own motives or interests favorably responding to the Egyptians’ initial call for mediation. Yet, all foreign mediations do not bear the expected fruits however noble or honest the intentions might prove to be. However, the US so far proved an honest broker as far as the Ethio-Egyptian disagreement over the GERD was concerned.
US impartiality and its observer status, along with representative of the World Bank during the talks was also a positive factor that contributed to the positive outcome.
What promoted the positive outcome of the talks might be the fact that both Egypt and Ethiopia are strategic allies of the US in the Middle East and the Horn region respectively. This alliance is based on their joint efforts to eradicate terrorism and bring about stability in the respective countries. If we stretch this alliance a little bit, we can say that US interest might also go beyond joint anti-terrorism strategy to include American political and economic interests in the two regions that are increasingly becoming bones of contention between and among great economic powers such as China, the European Union, Russia and the US.
What is important is that the US accepted Egyptian call for mediation and helped prevent a diplomatic row that could have continued without end and turned into something more dangerous for both Ethiopia and Egypt. As some analysts warned water diplomacy could have turned into water conflict or ‘water war’ between the two countries. This is now avoided for sure and all sides seem to be breathing a sigh of relief.
Ethiopia’s determination to go ahead with the GERD project was however the most important factor that possibly prevented escalation of the diplomatic row and its possible degeneration into something even uglier. Ethiopia’s claims over the use of the Nile waters was not only genuine, honest and legitimate. It is also free from any strategic or political considerations. Ethiopia always wanted to use the waters of the Nile to rid itself of age-old poverty and hunger. This is a noble goal that produced a sense of national solidarity and national purpose among all Ethiopians, while earning the nation international solidarity and support.
The third factor that is helping produce a positive scenario in GERD diplomacy is the slow progress the Egyptians are making in turning their diplomacy from the previous hard line, inflexible and ill-interpreted ‘historical claims’ towards a more pragmatic, more realistic and more balanced stance.
This is not however the product of any pressure from behind the diplomatic curtain. It may rather be taken as the outcome of the triumph of reason over emotion. And such a radical change cannot be expected to come ay about overnight or by miracle. It may only be the fruit of serious thinking, maturity and pragmatism. Egypt’s choice of the US as a mediator might have something to do with this kind of attitudinal or behavioral change on the Egyptians’’ side.
Recent trends in GERD diplomacy might be encouraging but do not by any means mean that all controversies have now completely vanished never to return again. Not at all. The post-agreement phase may create its own problems but they will certainly prove far less serious than those that characterized the earlier phase. Technical issues will be more prominent and engineers of the three countries rather than diplomats might be called upon to address them.
The last phase of the long GERD diplomacy might be the issue of turning what it was a three-country issue into a regional force of cooperation. The successful resolution of the GERD controversy will certainly open up new and unprecedented opportunities for regional cooperation and development in the Horn as a whole. the beneficiaries from the GERD are not a few countries bit a host of other stakeholders in the Horn and he Great lakes region.
The Horn region will find a new momentum for cooperation and economic growth and electricity generated from a nature-friendly source such as hydro-power will prove a boon for the ecology of the region as a whole. Countries of the Horn region will inevitably be linked with a web of electric-driven rail transport system and the GERD will provide the required energy for all countries of the region at a lower cost. This will also have a positive trickledown effect on other sectors of the economies of the region.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday Edition 9 February 2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
