Political and economic literature on the Horn of Africa suggest that the region is endowed with vast natural resources while the absence of peace and stability and the prevalence of insecurity among and within regional states have so far torpedoed any effort to build a viable economic cooperation that could promote peace, prosperity and stability. The fact that insecurity in the region is closely linked to what are called in the literature as international non-state actors like Al Qaeda and ISIS has made the task more complicated over time.
It is an incontrovertible fact that international terrorism is the enemy of global progress in the 21st century. Wherever terrorism rises its ugly head, the opportunities for economic and social wellbeing is reduced to naught. During the almost 20 years since 9/11, international terrorism has grown from a local or regional phenomenon to a global threat. Millions of people in dozens of countries have seen their chances of progress darkening and the economic losses from terrorist attacks have been staggering. Many countries have allocated considerable resources for fighting terrorism or at least for reducing its devastating consequences. Virtually no region has escaped the grips of its tentacles. From Europe to Asia, and Africa, terrorism has nowadays become the single most destabilizing factor in international and regional politics.
Terrorism is indeed a global phenomenon that is adapting itself to changing conditions. It has been evolving by embedding itself to changing economic, social and cultural conditions. It has been changing its names and tactics wherever it could insert itself and thrive under suitable circumstances. It is called Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al Shabab in Somalia, ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Taliban in Afghanistan. Its deeds however remain the same. It is driving millions into forced exile, and reducing many more millions into a life of misery in their own lands.
The geopolitical entity known as the Horn of Africa has always been captive to security threats and regional economic cooperation has been frustrated due to conflicts among countries but also within countries themselves. Until recently, almost all countries of the region have been living under the specter of permanent security crises and as a result of this; the prospects of economic cooperation have been pushed to the back burner of regional agendas. The rise of Al Shabab and the Islamic Courts before it in Somalia have marked another turning point in the security situation in the Horn. And Al Shabab terrorism still remains the single most formidable hurdle to peace and economic prosperity in the Horn of Africa.
This is not only a phenomenon unique to Somalia and has turned into a regional foe fighting to destabilize societies and create chaos across eastern Africa in its relentless bid to extend its sphere of influence and devastating impacts. Al Shabab attacks in Somalia and neighboring countries have become routine as a result of which hundreds of innocent citizens are losing their lives and livelihoods. Tens of millions of dollars are earmarked by the international community for the fight against terrorism in the region. This money could otherwise been used for improving the lives of millions of people and improve economic conditions in the region.
Al Shabab is relentlessly working to extend its sphere of influence in the Horn. It has so far tired and failed to extend its operations in Ethiopia which is the traditional bulwark of the anti-terrorism struggle in the Horn. According to the Country Reports on Terrorism, which is an assessment of the anti-terrorism records of countries of the region, Ethiopia occupies a vanguard role in the struggle against regional terrorism.
The book says that, “To counter the threat from elements of the Somalia based AL-ITTIHAAD AL-ISLAMI (AIAI) and other groups, the government has increased its military efforts to control its border with Somalia. It has also developed and installed improved security systems for its international airport at Addis Ababa, improved its capabilities for tracking terrorists and terrorist supporters, and introduced more secure passport technology with anti-tampering features.”
On the other hand, Kenya and Uganda have repeatedly been the targets of Al Shabab and other nameless and faceless terrorist groups. Djibouti is so far spared from the worst so far thanks in part to the presence of military bases from where drone attacks are taking place against Al Shabab hideouts and operatives.
However, the economic impact of security issues and terrorism in the region does not seem to attract as many headlines as its security threats claim. According to one study, “In the Horn, a long history of conflict and poor political relations means that military rather than economic considerations tend to dominate national security debates.”
According to one information, more than 140 million people are estimated to be living in the region which is endowed with many resources but lack of security has so far prevented millions of people from benefiting from them. Countries of the region are allocating considerable financial and human resources for combating the threat of terrorism that had apparently gained grounds in the past as a result of rising security threats in individual Horn countries and poor strategic partnership among them. The situation has only turned to the better very recently and the positive changes are still too fragile to withstand and/or effectively neutralize the security threats in the region.
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan and to some extent South Sudan, Djibouti and Kenya are witnessing relative improvement in their domestic security conditions and the prospects for regional cooperation is far better now than they used to be in the past. Improvements in the economic conditions of individual countries, however small these positive signs may appear, have a considerable impact in reducing the appeal of terrorism among the most underprivileged sections of societies in many Horn countries.
Terrorism is not only a threat to peace and stability of Horn countries. It is also a vicious threat against the resources of the region which terrorist groups such as Al Shabab try to control and use to boost their presence in the region. Terrorist groups are involved in illicit clandestine business in many countries in order to gain more power and influence in their ongoing competitions for scarce resources. ISIS has been active in exploiting the oil resources of the provinces it briefly controlled in Iraq and Syria to cover its expenses and even turn itself into a magnet for idealist youths from Europe and elsewhere.
In a way, terrorism is a powerful competitor for financial and other resources and in the absence of any political program or strategy, its chief objective seems to further destabilize insecure regions and countries in order to turn them into sources of exploited and illegal wealth. Islam is only used to justify this criminal design because modern terrorism is chiefly operating among Islamic communities that are often rocked by poverty and violence. Al Shabab is apparently thriving in Somalia for the same reason because Somali communities have been the victims of poverty, famines, natural as well as man-made calamities for many decades now. The poorer a country is, the more ideal for terrorism to take root and promote its destabilizing agenda. The opposite is also true. The more prosperous and stabile a country is, the less likely for terrorism to thrive. The most effective antidote against terrorism is therefore economic prosperity and political stability.
That is why countries of the Horn need to work harder and together in order to improve economic conditions in the Horn so that terrorism might be deprived one of its powerful ally which is poverty and hopelessness. International assistance for the Horn region in its fight against terrorism is an indispensable though complementary requirement and the most important factor that will shape the outcome of the struggle is, in the final analysis, is regional economic cooperation that would create long term condition for the decline and final defeat of terrorism in the Horn.
Terrorism and insecurity are going to define politics in the Horn region for many years to come. Terrorism is not something that can be wished away but something that needs to be fought and defeated. It has the capacity to rise from the ashes and gain ground whenever and wherever conditions are suitable for its revival as we are now witnessing in Iraq and Syria where ISIS is trying hard to have a second life. Terrorism is also a threat that is constantly testing the patience and straining the resources of Horn countries. Its unpredictability and adaptability is also something that requires consistent vigilance and unrelenting commitment on the part of the anti-terrorism alliance in the Horn.
As it has always been the bulwark of the struggle against terrorism in the region, Ethiopia should also play a vanguard role in promoting active economic cooperation among Horn countries as its recent diplomatic efforts are proving. This efforts however should be conducted not in an on and off manner but sustainably, vigorously and effectively so that it can attain the desired strategic goals.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday Edition 26 January 2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
