The situation in the African Horn region and in individual countries is highly volatile. Events are changing at breakneck speed and unpredictably. In a single year alone, Sudan has overthrown a military dictatorship and embarked on a transition to democracy. South Sudan has gone from crisis to crisis and the peace process is still hanging in a balance.
Ethiopia is going through a rocky transition marked by ethnic conflicts, massive human displacements. These challenges are made all the more complicated because of the economic downturn , massive unemployment and heavy foreign indebtedness. Somalia on the other hand is faring somewhat better although the demon of Al Shabab terrorism is still making life difficult for millions of ordinary Somalis.
Events in the Horn are bound to affect the political; and economic situation in every member country and vice versa. Ethiopia as a critical link between Horn entities is particularly going through a defining moment as it is facing a difficult transition. The success of democracy in Ethiopia will have a positive spillover effect on the Horn countries in general. The failure in Ethiopia’s transition would be a devastating blow to all countries of the region.
That is why the international community is seriously engaged in Ethiopia’s socio-economic and political transition a success story. That is also why US and European countries are sending assistance worth hundreds of millions of dollars and provide loans and financial assistance to help make the transition to market economy and democracy as smooth as possible. This is not however mean that these countries have no stakes in the success of Ethiopia’s transition are pouring in all the money driven solely by selfless and/or pure philanthropic instincts.
Peace, stability and democracy in Ethiopia would created the most ideal condition for trade, investment and growth. Western countries are greatly interested in making business with Horn countries and Ethiopia is the linchpin of this global vision. success in Ethiopia will certainly inspire other players to get involved in the process with more vigor and commitment.
That would in turn have a kind of positive domino effect as the other countries would fall under the charms of market economic and democratic politics. This is at least the calculation at this critical time. the international community is apparently tired of supporting the Horn countries with money that fell in the wrong hands and created deeper aid-dependency instead of promoting self-sustained growth beneficial to the majority of the peoples. Ethiopia’s transition is therefore a kind of standard bearer for the entire region for these and other reasons.
However, any transition from a command and control economy and politics to a free market and democratic reality is generally marked by ups and downs, advances and retreats as well as unpredictability and fluidity of the process. Ethiopia has started the reform process under difficult internal and external conditions. Internally, the reform is widely accepted by the majority of Ethiopians who fought for it and asked for change. That is why they are ready to endure material deprivation and other threats.
They want to see the reform program succeed and deliver its promises and hopes, namely peace, stability and a dignified life worthy of free citizens. Democracy without a marked improvement would be meaningless and even fraught with new crises. People do not fight for democracy for its own sake. They fight for a better life by using democracy as the main weapon of popular empowerment leading to fairer distribution of wealth by narrowing the gap between the haves and the have-nots.
Although the transition to democracy may be facing formidable challenges, externally, the reform program is clearly enjoying widespread support. Unlike in the past, the support has no ideological basis or similar political considerations. Traditionally such support was coming with strings attached. Ideology or strategic interests dictated the behaviors or many foreign countries.
This has apparently changed now for good and external support by rich country is rather more pragmatic and relatively more generous. As we said above, the global community wants Ethiopia to succeed for many reasons. This has in turn created a favorable regional and global scenarios, if properly and smartly exploited would make Ethiopia the leading reformist country with great potentials and implications for other African countries.
Economically, Ethiopia has experience one of the fastest growth scenarios in Africa, if not in the world for the last ten years or so. Despite present difficulties, Ethiopia is largely believed to proceed along the growth trajectory for many years to come. According to IMF and World Bank projections, (quotes) Ethiopia’s s economy is bound to grow at a relatively slower pace; but grow it certainly will. Yet, this growth will certainly be problematic because it may not be translated into tangible benefits for ordinary citizens, as it is most evident at this particular time.
The strangest thing and the most undesirable outcome of any economic reform is that it hurts many people while it benefits a few of the relatively better off sections of urban and rural populations. It also aggravates some of the already existing problems such as unemployment and poverty. The dislocations that are inevitable under a reformist regime are bound to complicate economic management and policy choices. As there is no universally valid model for economic and political transition, the process is bound to go ahead tentatively.
The popular quest for change came spontaneously, and the government had no initial road plan to manage the process, things are bound to get worse before they get better. How long it would take for the economic challenges to reach breaking point is another unpredictable factor. All these things make it incumbent on external sources of support to show patience and generosity so that the tough times give way to easier ones. Stabilizing the Ethiopian economic might obviously have payback effects on the politics of the country and the region at large. Failure to do so might turn the clock back and plunge the region into unpredictable distress.
Economic stabilization in Ethiopia would create deeper faith and hope in the reform process and inspire people to work harder and improve their lives. Jobs will be created, unemployed youngsters would prefer work over revolt while the government might find the opportunity to try and implement better policy options by discarding ineffective ones.
First of all Ethiopia is one of the biggest and most important demographic, economic and diplomatic entities in Africa as well as in the Horn. These factors, may appear constraining at first sight but upon closer observation, one realizes that they are also promising dynamics for change, and sustainable growth, provided that the political backdrop is adjusted in such a way as to remove old hindrances and constraints.
Thus, Ethiopia’s economic and political reform program is worth supporting by Western as well as other countries for the above reasons. No doubt Ethiopia is going through a difficult economic time facing challenges in such areas as hard currency reserve, earnings from foreign trade and debt servicing difficulties. Inflation is real challenge that is make life more difficult for millions of underprivileged people in particular.
Politically too, the transition to democracy is proving tougher than previous assumed. Unaccounted factors and actors are emerging on the way to the promised land of freedom. One of the toughest tests is the organization of a credible, transparent, free, fair and capable of meeting international election standards.
The journey has already started but it does not seem to be progressing with the tempo and plan to make the pre-election phase one of institution building and meting the preconditions for a successful election and the post-election phase. Many positive features can be seen at present but there are also shortcomings such as reforming the justice system in such a way as it will never be used by the executive as an instrument of election fraud, rigging and human rights abuses.
There is not yet an independent constitutional court that would handle post- election controversies by the competing parties. The old institutional structures are not reformed in depth and still dance at the old music of authoritarianism and despotism by the executive that was a one-man show for a long time. The ruling party is not yet totally divorced from the ruling state although some measures are taken in that direction. The marriage between party and state was, as we remember, one of the bastions of despotism, election mishandling and abuse. Now things are seemingly improving but the speed with which they proceed leave much to be desired.
Election is a very costly enterprise and the government has allocated an unprecedented amount of money for the conduct of the May 2020 elections. Foreign countries and all stakeholders interested in the success of the Ethiopian election are contributing millions of dollars that add up to the fund already allocated by the government. Elections are not the alpha and omega of democracy. They are rather the beginning of a long journey to democracy.
As a marathon starts with the first steps, so is democracy with the first elections that will determine the pace and final outcome of any genuine democratization process. One has to take into consideration the fact that the voters or the electorate is the most decisive stakeholder in the process. An election will not be successful because millions of dollars allocated to conduct it. Not do they succeed because the political parties are willing to take part in them. The process will have to be open, transparent a free for all contest at the center of which are the electors.
A democratic election needs the approval and direct and free participation of electors. It must be a process overseen by an independent and impartial body involving election observers chosen from the people themselves. They should not be paid agents of the state who guarantee the uncontested victory of the incumbent as it was the practice in the past. As its name indicates, a democratic election is expected to be a political festival of the people, from the people and by the people.
This should be done not for some foreign consumption but for the sake of planting the first seeds of a genuine democracy that will be watered by the knowledge, commitment and creative spirit of future generations. It will have to be a democracy that will stand the test of time and prove a powerful inspirational force not only for the people of Ethiopia but also for the peoples of the Horn region.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday Edition 15 December 2019
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
