l The progression of full merger should not be rushed
EPRDF has not only lost its ability to manage a stable political transition, but has become a source of conflict itself. In this sense, it has contributed immensely to the proliferation of violence in the country, so disclosed senior researcher in the Horn of Africa program at the Institute for Security Studies, Semir Yusuf.
According to him, a perceived weak state shapes individual and group behaviors in sizable ways. A weak or incoherent state sometimes turns domestic politics into something that resembles realist international politics.
According to Realist international relations, the basic features of international relations include the absence of a world government, a state of affairs that confers upon states the sole responsibility of protecting and promoting their own interests.
He is of the opinion that states vie with one another to pursue their interests, maintain or restore their security or ensure their domination in an atmosphere of perpetual uncertainty and even fear. State competition at times leads to conflicts and war, and at times could be resolved amicably through negotiation.
However, this can never induce a permanent solution and security. The attempt by one state to ensure its security becomes a source of insecurity for another. In short, it is precisely the absence of a world government that perpetuates a security dilemma.
He further noted that the condition of domestic politics in the absence of a strong but liberalizing state coming out of centralized ethno-federal rule has some degree of similarity with this kind of international politics. Ethnic groups, tribes, clans and groups claiming to represent them immediately assume a central position in the looming political contestation and they compete for security, power and hegemony. It is not that they don’t want order, but they want order under their dominion.
“The effort by some groups to enhance their security creates insecurity in other groups. Intense competition sometimes results in violent conflicts, and even those resolved peacefully have no guarantee of holding for long. Individuals are pulled to their co-ethnics and consider it essential to show solidarity and loyalty to their ‘brothers and sisters’ in times of uncertainty and volatility. The Ethiopian political landscape presently features some of these issues. The major reason for this is the perceived lack of a strong state able or willing to enforce law and order.” He added.
He pointed out that in Ethiopia, political arrangements have contributed to the emergence and intensification of nationalist mobilization. During the imperial and Derg periods, a classical form of nation building promoted by an authoritarian unitary state engendered, along with other factors, a host of ethnic nationalist movements against the regimes or the state itself.
As to him, in 1991 the new ruling party, the EPRDF, remapped the Ethiopian state along ethnic lines, without shedding the centralist and authoritarian tendencies of the past. The outcome was the further proliferation and intensification of not only ethnic mobilization but contending nationalisms within a tightly controlled state through a hierarchically organized party structure.
The long-simmering ethnic dissatisfactions and mobilizations increasingly shook the foundations of the regime and proved unstoppable. They finally triggered a major shift in the institutional arrangements of the federal state and party system of the EPRDF, which had unknowingly long maintained a brittle party organization.
“Ethnic mobilization has reached unprecedented levels, with all sides mutually antagonistic and on a more or less open playing field. This is bound to lead to major violent conflicts. That is what is happening in Ethiopia. At a micro level, concerns for group worth beget intense devotion to one’s group, and that translates into concerns for group security, leading to the proliferation of weaponisation and counter-militarization,” he stated.
On his recommendation’s view, a major entry point to restoring sustainable order is to try to alter the institutional context that triggers the security dilemma at the local level. This requires ensuring internal party unity and reactivating state resilience.
To do this, nationalist forces must down their confrontational tendencies by resetting their priorities. The institutional and ideological transformations should go hand in hand in order to achieve stability. Specifically, the stakeholders must urgently consider taking of decisive measures.
In taking responsibility of EPRDF, he noted that such internally unified parties should then come to the negotiating table to achieve clarity and unity of purpose as either a coalitional front, or as a national party. Although the latter (party merger) seems to have by now become a fait accompli the progression of full merger should not be rushed; it should involve more intense negotiations that include as many voices as possible, even those who voted against the idea of merger itself.
“The opposition group should focus on the bigger picture of smooth transition into a stable democracy, without necessarily undermining their specific nationalist or ethnic interests,” he pointed out.
The state should work more towards exercising a reasonable monopoly over the means of violence, including a strict rule and practice of gun control and unleash it in a coherent and organized manner. Success in all these areas would in turn create a positive political
environment for the fruitful conduct of inter-party negotiations and national dialogue in general, adding he said, the government should continue working closely with traditional institutions and civil society organizations to prevent the eruption of conflicts or, when they erupt, to promote their peaceful resolution. The roles played by entities such as Oromo traditional leaders in mediating between the ODP and OLF is commendable.
“Civil society organizations must inject into society constructive non-ethnic and cross-cutting agendas and bring together diverse people to work towards realizing their goals. The best method for resolving conflicts is not always mediating warring parties on the contentious issues, but getting them to work together on entirely different issues of common interest.” He stated.
Regarding the significant plays of International organizations, he indicated that donor countries and international organizations could help financially by reducing the economic burden on ordinary people, and technically by enhancing government capacity to prevent and resolve conflict. Technical support in the form of consultation and training in the areas of establishing law and order, and preventing and resolving conflicts, should be escalated and diversified.
Contributions by Pact and the United Nations Development Program in helping government agencies launch an early warning system and map conflict, respectively, are especially noteworthy. Knowledge transfer and skills enhancement in relevant areas should encompass all killils and should be stepped up, especially before the planned 2020 national elections and immediately after, he added.
Head of public relation of Arena-Tigray for Democracy and Sovereignty, Amedom Gebre-selassie said that the Tigray people are a bit skeptic about the prosperity party. As such, they are not fully ready to espouse the campaigning for the programs of prosperity party in the country. First, there is a need to grasp its difference from the central command system, he said.
He noted that all citizens in the country do not have deviant outlook and interest. Almost all Ethiopians have demanded reform, justice, development, good-governance and peace. Such needs are not achieved yet in all states of the country. Demands of this nature are asked so many times; however, these are not still fulfilled to the benefit of the state and the people of the country.
These demands could be fulfilled through tabling high-discussion forums in the presence of political parties, pressure and independent groups. The problem could be solved prioritizing the rule of law.
“The government in power should make extra care to restrain itself from using coercive and excessive forces. Moreover, it is expected to sensitize the public and mobilize it driving home the very practical concept of common agenda for common goals averting the country’s critical hurdles. Establishing independent institutions is one of the resolutions for the existing problems in the country,” he added.
The Ethiopian Herald December 5/2019
BY MEHARI BEYENE
