American political scientist Hans Morgenthau who is largely considered the father of political realism in relations between nations used to say in his book, Politics Among Nations published in 1945, “politics is about the national interest” which is the key concept in international politics.
This was known as the realist school of thought or the realist school of international relations. Though Morgenthau’s basic concern was the role and nature of power in international relations, he looked at the pursuit of national interest as a way of acquiring power by a state or states in the global system.
Although Morgenthau’s concept of national interest did not assume the use of aggressive power use the absence of ethical considerations in his theory has led to many conflicts that have led to major wars, including World Wars I and II. There were other schools of thought that emphasized the pursuit of power and national interests as key factors shaping international relations in the 20th century. Neo-realism tried to articulate a more feasible approach although the process was overtaken by the growth of globalization at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st.
We now talk of a multi-polar international system that has emerged after the collapse of the bipolar system dominated by the Cold War and was marked by the threat of conflict between the two superpowers. The new multipolar world, on the other hand, has created conditions for greater cooperation among nationals but has not ruled out the possibility of dangerous conflicts from Europe to the Middle East stretching all the way to Africa.
The 21st century has seen the rapid advance of what is known as globalization whose emphasis is not exclusively on the pursuit of narrow national interests but global or international concerns that shape the future of the world. Economic, political and existential interdependence requires that international relations and political policies be conducted ethically and on the basis of common interests. But this kind of ethical or value-laden relations among nations sometimes leads to political crises and armed conflicts at regional and global levels.
The rise of international terrorism is an additional factor that is creating dangerous political and military crises that tend to destabilize whole regions and impact internal political processes within individual countries from Iraq to Syria and Afghanistan among others. Thus globalization is proving to be no panacea to global conflicts of interests. It is rather a contradictory process whereby cooperation and common interests predominate over parochial considerations.
Cooperation and conflict in regional and global relations coexist in a fragile international system producing surprises and unpredictable twists and turns in relations among nations. However, on balance, cooperation rather than active conflicts are defining the new global reality.
Africa is no exception to the new rules of the game or to the contradictory tendencies in international relations. The factors we indicated above are at work in Africa where old-style colonial or post-colonial realities are progressively being replaced by the rising global trends of conflicts and cooperation. Nowadays, Africa is said to be rising from its long slumber but the rise is not always accompanied by positive outcomes. Colonial and post-colonial conflicts are being replaced with new conflicts of the age of globalization that center not on force or coercion. The old center-periphery dichotomy is also being replayed in new global or regional contexts.
What is known in political literature as the Horn of Africa is, for instance, a place where all these contradictions find expression in current regional politics. The civil war in Somalia which was started under the late president Siad Barre more than twenty years ago assumed tribal features that degenerated into regional or wider conflicts involving Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda as coalition partners in the fight against international terrorism. The East-West struggle for regional hegemony in the Horn during the Cold War is now taking a new shape as great economic powers such as the US, China, and Europe are fighting for new forms of influence under new pretentions assuming the form of competition for markets, resources and strategic advantages.
The Horn of Africa is rich in natural resources as well as in geopolitical terms. That is the basic reason why the big economic powers like the US, China, and the EU are increasingly interested in the region with their growing involvement in trade and investment, loan or assistance, and in the case of Somalia, in military involvement against Al Shabab terrorism which is affiliated to Al Qaeda and other international terrorist groups. Terrorism is not the only reason that is attracting growing involvements by forces outside the region.
Russia was a superpower under communism. It has taken decades to shed its old image and is now joining the club of economic superpowers although with diminished clout. Russia under its defunct name, i.e. the Soviet Union, was one of the two main regional players who fought a proxy war for regional influence. The 1977 Ethio-Somali war was a good example of this. Nowadays, it seeks greater rapprochement with African countries as the recently-concluded Sochi conference demonstrated. Its ambitions may not be as great as under the Soviet system but its potential for doing something good is still there.
Under globalization which is now engulfing the entire region if not the entire continent, old-style conflicts are progressively being replaced with new-style cooperative initiatives. China is a good example of this as it is evident from its Belt and Road Initiative that has taken Africa into consideration. China has emerged as the biggest investor, loan and assistance provider in the region and across Africa. The US is waking up to this reality and playing catch up with China that already traveled a good distance in its quest for a new style of regional cooperation that combines Chinese national interest with African and Horn developmental aspirations.
What has made China attractive to a growing number of African countries is perhaps that its economic engagement is said to be coming with no strings attached and is generous to the point that Beijing is even writing off or rescheduling many African debts. This is a challenge to Western interests whose traditional relations with Horn countries were allegedly predicated on debtor-creditor relationships or center-periphery dichotomy we indicated above.
Ethiopia, as a Horn country, is increasingly attracting the attention of foreign players. China is presumably the biggest loan provider to the government whose massive road and rail infrastructure construction is funded with Chinese money. Though heavy Chinese debts were instrumental in creating the much-vaunted growth in the last ten years or so, it has also heavily indebted the country to the point of not being able to finance it and led to repeated debt cancellations or debt rescheduling.
Ethiopia’s economic growth, however fragile, could not materialize without Chinese capital. The growth is imported rather than domestically generated and this is apparently the basic reason why it is now showing signs of wobbling under pressure. And this is also the basic reason why it has led to the ongoing economic reform program and the change in the direction of economic policy from the previous state-control system to a neoliberal market fundamentalist reorientation.
The so-called accelerated growth also aggravated domestic economic and political contradictions and led to popular protests that brought about change of regime back in 2018. The Chinese-inspired growth scenario has also created serious socio-economic contradictions translated into land grabs and income inequalities that fed the recent farmers and youth revolts. This can be taken as a bad case of globalization of capital and its impact on poorer regions like Ethiopia leading to serious dislocations and even dangerous crises.
Although there are visible dark spots here and there in the international system, the future holds bright promises already visible on the distant horizon. The shift from Cold War confrontations to cooperation in the era of globalization is making it incumbent upon nations to use the wonders of modern technology and the power of persuasion in order to gain influence and leadership. Their influence is subtler than in the past and the tool is soft power rather than the traditional hard one. Most of all, globalization is turning diplomacy into a tested and tried weapon of conflict resolution and cooperation.
The Horn of Africa region which was not amenable to dialogue in conflict resolution process has now started to respond to the urge for diplomacy to play the role of arbiter. The recent peace overtures between Eritrea and Ethiopia is a milestone in diplomatic achievement that is part and parcel of the new trend. It has won prestige and a Nobel peace prize for Ethiopia and respect for Africa. The same process is at work in the rest of Horn countries like South Sudan and Somalia that are still struggling to live up to the promises of the new age.
Ethiopia is turning a new page in its domestic politics and the outcome will certainly depend on whether it will use the opportunities in its search for genuine democracy or bend under pressure and miss the train of change and progress. Ethiopia’s success will undoubtedly be a game-changer for the region as well while its failure might be catastrophic for the region.
Old perceptions are certainly changing and being replaced by new perspectives. Will the new perspectives, that are not yet fully formed, prevail over the old and archaic practices in the long-run? This is the million-dollar question whose answer is the toughest homework for all the people who have a stake in positive thinking in a world, a region or a country long suffering from negativity, pessimism or doomsday scenarios.
The Ethiopian Herald December13, 2019
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
