ADDIS ABABA – The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has urged that the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries to downscale their climate forecasts at the local level for effective use.
ICPAC has finalized the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70) by issuing the official seasonal climate outlook for the June to September (JJAS) 2025 rainfall season over the Greater Horn of Africa. The forecast indicates a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across much of the northern parts of the region.
ICPAC’s Officer in Charge, Abdi Fidar (PhD), stated that the forum brought together focal persons of member states, including ministers of water resources, agriculture, health, meteorology, disaster risk management, scientists, and policymakers to analyze the forecast and its impact.
He told The Ethiopian Herald that the member states need to look into how the climate prediction will impact health, the water sector, disaster risk management, agriculture, and so forth.
“We are pushing our member states to downscale the forecast up to local communities,” he said, adding that it requires analyzing the impact of the predicted weather on farmers, pastoralists, and other communities and taking the best out of the expected climate for productivity while managing its effects.
This can be done by the regional administrations, not necessarily by the central governments, the Officer added.
Therefore, each member state is required to take actions to manage any disaster based on the forecast. So far, the countries are using ICPAC’s predictions, though it depends on national and subnational structures to properly apply the forecast for better use, he noted.
At the GHACOF 70’s closing ceremony, Ethiopian Meteorology Institute Director General FeteneTeshome noted that JJAS contributes to over 50% of annual rainfall over the northern parts of the GHA region, and more than 80% in most parts of Sudan, making the seasonal forecast particularly significant for early action and planning in sectors such as agriculture and food security, water resources, disaster risk reduction, and other climate-sensitive socio-economic sectors.
Accordingly, he said that there is a 55% probability of above-normal rainfall over central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and eastern Uganda.
Additionally, western Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, Djibouti, and western Eritrea are expected to experience wetter-than-average conditions. Conversely, there is a high chance of below-average rainfall over the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, northwestern South Sudan, and southeastern Ethiopia, Fetene added.
ICPAC has pledged to continue to provide regular updates and technical advisories throughout the JJAS season.
BY YOHANES JEMANEH
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD THURSDAY 22 MAY 2025
