The Ethiopian year 2011 was indeed a year of turbulence. The dust that the windof reform had raised in 2010 continued to blow across the entire nation, with inexorable force and continues to do as wewrite these lines. Revolutions are generallybloody and messy and chaotic. Ethiopia has so far avoided the road of radical revolution,which it experienced back in 1974 and chose the path of reform this time whichis not imposed from above but came frombelow, from the people’s revolt and shookthe entire political structure and forcing onthe ruling party political, economic, social and ideological reforms.
The political impacts of the current Ethiopian reform process are indeed farreaching.They have changed power relations at the top. The ruling party is not the same ruling party that existed before the reform process started. The EPRDF has evolved both structurally and ideologically. The Oromo, the Amhara and the Tigrayan components have changed their names and functions. They are slowly distancing themselves from the old revolutionary democracy which is increasingly being discredited and abandoned. Surprisingly enough, the reforms have given these constituting parties more power, more voice and more autonomy. They have also raised a feeling of independence and a temptation to go their own ways, at least among the political elites.
Opposition parties too are reforming. Many of them have changed their names and even
their programs. In 2011 there have been new mergers of opposition groups with new names. While the ruling and opposition parties are reforming they are also trying to learn from their past mistakes. They are now readier to talk to one another and expressed their ideas in a free and permissive atmosphere without fear of reprisal. This has in turn led to the signing of a kind of joint political pact or the creation of a joint forum between the ruling party and the more than one hundred opposition formations in 2011. Both sides claim adherence to the pact although tangible steps need to be taken to realize this or agreement. As recent events confirmed, opposition parties are no more intimidated. For instance they have opposed the recent parliamentary decision on how Election 2020 would be conducted and called for the annulment of the resolutionand the convening of another meeting where opposition ideas would be taken into consideration.
The formation of a new and reformed National Electoral Board (NEBE) with new mandates and objectives and tasks was perhaps one of the main achievement or gain of the reform process in 2019. However, the process was not as smooth as one of Addis Ababa’s new roads. It went through bumps and shocks as a number of parties called for deeper reform of the NEBE while others denounced it for failing to take their suggestions into account. Proof of the NEBE’s change of attitude is that it did not try to impose its will on the opposition parties as it was the practice before the
reforms. One of the stickiest political points was the call by opposition parties to change some of the constitutional provisions that they consider as hurdles to the unity, peace and transformation of the country along democratic lines. The government made promises to review the said provisions but no date was given when it would take place
or how it will be performed. The political crisis in the SNNPRS and more particularly in the context of the Sidama referendum has brought forward the urgent need for constitutional reforms that give more freedom to the regions although all the constituting parts of the SNNPRS are not expected to opt for similar referendums.
The year 2020 will certainly be decisive for determining the direction in which the federal system is going to evolve. This will also be time for putting an end to the ethnic conflicts massive displacements and human
suffering that marked 2019. No doubt that Ethiopian domestic politics faced many challenges in 2019. On the
contrary, there were strong achievements in foreign policy and international relations.
The most significant achievement can be traced to the string of successes the country scored in its policy towards the Horn countries. In 2019, Ethiopia has clearly
emerged as the key country in the Horn diplomatically.
The Ethio-Eritrea peace process is still on track. South Sudan is on the verge of peace, Sudan settled the disputes raised during the Revolution in a cordial manner although blood had also accompanied the process.
Djibouti is continuing to serve as a peaceful strategic country in the Horn. Cooperation agreements with Kenya and Uganda are in pace and these countries have pledged to work with Ethiopia which has become a Beacon of peace in the region. Further to the north, Ethiopia’s friendly and cooperative diplomacy with Egypt is persuading the latter, although slowly, that the GERD project will be to the benefit of all countries in the region and this has removed the climate of mistrust previously promoted by social media and other cynical political in
both countries. In Somalia, Al Shabab is being routed and Ethiopia’s role in this process is well established.
Chaos is slowly being replaced with order in Somalia as a somehow functional democracy is put in place and the country is reaping the benefits of a stronger State after staying stateless for more than two decades. PM Abiy Ahmed’s peace offensive is giving Ethiopia a place of respect and prestige outside the Horn as this was confirmed during his recent visit to the Middle East and the Far East. The year
2019 was an excellent year for Ethiopian diplomacy and 2020 is expected to bear the fruits and turn hopes into tangible economic benefits.
The Ethiopian government delegation’s visits to South Korea and Japan as well as to Israel has been very successful as the main objectives were securing economic assistance for Ethiopia in its bid to
create millions of jobs to its unemployed youngsters. these countries have pledges to provide loans running into hundreds of US
dollars.
Huge investments and technological transfers in agriculture, industry, technology and software development are promised for 2020 and beyond. Ethiopia has started to show the world how much potential it has to offer and how determined it is to develop its agriculture in particular to do away with the age-old stigma and humiliation it has been suffering as a poor, famished and aid dependent country. This is going to change for the better as the sings indicate in that direction.
Economically speaking, 2019 was a generally difficult year for Ethiopia although there were flickers of hope here and there. At policy levels the decision to continue work on the GERD can be taken as a positive sign although citizens are far from enjoying life, and businesses as well as new investors are far from being guaranteed a steady flow of energy. The greatest challenge for 2020 will certainly be to boost energy supply so that old and new enterprises could increase productivity and output. Otherwise the promised new investments will hardly be realized because power supply is defining factor of foreign investment flow. So the government is expected to come up with a vigorous, stable and increased power supply that is pivotal for industrial growth, job creation and foreign investment inflow as well as household supply. Power supply is of pivotal importance for Ethiopia’s future economic growth.
The biggest economic headache in 2011 was however the rising cost of living that has hit hardest citizens in the low income bracket. Inflation has now reached the double digit figure and this has worried the government very much although there was confusion as to how to deal with rising inflation. The people can wait for energy supply until dams are built but they cannot wait to eat until prices fall down, So this is an existential challenge for the majority of the people in the low income bracket in particular. This was also a big test for the government that was already staggering under the weight of unemployment. Will 2020 something tangible in this area? This should be up to the economists to think harder and come up with some alternatives to alleviate the hunger cramps the sharp rise in consumer goods has put on the stomachs of the majority of Ethiopians.
The supply side of hard currency has proved to be another headache in 2019. However, the government can be said to have done a better job here by securing concessional loans, assistance and even outright grants to deal with this particular malaise. Whether all the money secured in this way would prove effective to eliminate economic illness is yet to be seen.
Ethiopia is one of the leading recipient of foreign assistance among sub-Saharan African countries but has so far failed to live up to the expectations of lenders as it is still sagging under heavy indebtedness. This time around the international lending institutions as well bilateral partners seemed buoyed by the country’s economic reforms and the opportunity for private sector growth. This seems to be the engine that is continuing to drive the borrow-creditor relationship for many years to come.
In 2019, economic cooperation agreements were signed with the US, China and Europe and this can be considered the payback of the economic reform process. The government should be commended for its wise approach in choosing economic partners Ideology is not interfering in seeking foreign partnerships and in the terms of cooperation. This kind of equity in partnership without strings attached is a smarter way of attracting or handling foreign investment and is becoming more popular.
Socially, Ethiopia in 2019 has faced many problems but also witnessed a number of opportunities. Unemployment is perhaps the biggest problem in bigger cities and towns around the country. This has given rise to growing criminality and signs of despair and anger are visible among the youths in some big towns. But the rate of crime is lower in Ethiopia than in most developing countries because citizens are actively involved in crime prevention and control together with the police forces.
On the other hand, women empowerment is making some tangible advances although the majority of women in the country still live in poverty and suffer from all kinds of oppression from domestic to public harassments. There are two faces to the condition of women in the country in 2019. On the one hand women were promoted to the highest government posts as some of them became ministers, leaders of enterprises and employees of modern institutions. On the other hand, tens of thousands of them were leaving the country in search of better opportunities abroad. Many of them died in the seas, languished in foreign prisons where they suffered a great deal.
Here too, the government has been making efforts to alleviate the sufferings of migrants who were kept in prison. Scores of them were released from various prisons and this can be taken as the payback of positive diplomatic efforts in general. Others were returned to their country and this has created another dilemma, that of providing jobs for the returnees. Women’s unemployment rate is still higher than that of men and earn lower than men for similar jobs. This kind of discrimination is still prevailing in the system and will certainly take years if not decades to get any better.
More recent the government, particularly in the capital Addis Ababa, has taken steps to deal with the problems of streets prostitution and begging. Tens of thousands of prostitutes and beggars are promised shelters and some form of employment to make up for the incomes they collected by those deplorable means. However, care should be taken so that these initiatives may not be aborted like th previous ones. Careful planning, allocation of resources and commitment are required to make the new initiative a success. One cannot eliminate these social scourges by compassion and emotion alone. The Addis Ababa city administration has promised to create more than 250 000 jobs in 2020. Better to wait and see if that promise would be fulfilled.
In the social sphere, efforts have been made and to improve the education sector performance. A new road plan to improve quality of education at all levels is finalized. Education equity continues to take center stage as all the regions of the country are enjoying equal opportunity in acquiring knowledge. However, there were also some disputable measures taken by the educational authorities, like making Amharic a medium of instruction at lower grades in the regions although this is something that is constitutionally mandated to the regional states. National examinations in 2011 took place in an atmosphere of relative peace and order although there were some places where internal displacements have prevented school children from taking the exams.
Speaking of millions of internally displaced people, 2019 was basically tragic although brighter sings have been perceived lately, according to official sources. The government disclosed that more than 2.1 million internally displaced people were taken back to their native villages to resume normal life and that the rest will be repatriated in the new year. This is a huge achievement since more than 3 million people were internally displaced in the previous year. This does not however mean that the problem is resolved once and for all. New displacements can take place unless and unless the underlying political causes are not fully addressed and the political situation in many regions still remains volatile.
The health sector too is enjoying some kind of reform. Ethiopia has been able to contain such dangerous contagions like cholera and Ebola thanks to the efficiency of the health infrastructure and resources it has built up through the years in the rural areas in particular. A number of old hospitals have been renovated in Addis Ababa while new ones were built by private sector investors.
Non-communicable diseases like diabetes, high blood pressure, heart diseases kidney failure and the like have started to be addressed through private-public sector cooperation and many hospital are equipped with kidney dialysis machines and other sophisticated medical equipments. The health coverage in rural areas is increasing although there is still a lot to be done to bring it up to a desirable level. Child immunization, mother and child care and nutrition is said to be improving in 2019 although there is much to be done in 2020.
As indicated above, the reform process needs some fixing if it is to be kept on its proper track. The promises that were made in the 2019 need to be fulfilled. A national reconciliation conference will have to take place as promised under the peace and reconciliation agenda of the government. The ministry of peace has done a good job under strenuous conditions but it cannot overlook national reconciliation among the political parties as part and parcel of Election 2020.
The anti-corruption drive is perhaps the weakest link in the government’s efforts to deal with the growing scourge. The anti-corruption initiatives and efforts of the previous year need to be redoubled and produce tangible results. The judicial sector reforms are expected to create an impartial and independent justice system, free from intervention by the executive branch of government. This is a monumental task that would be realized in years but the foundations need to be laid now and in the coming few years.
Judicial independence is also relevant in the context of the forthcoming elections because election irregularities need to be addressed by impartial courts and not by executive intervention as it was the case in the past. The new Ethiopian year will be decisive for the country and opposition parties will have to participate from the preparations to the execution of the elections because lack of ownership of the process was at the art of past disputes and even violence.
All parties are therefore expected to cooperate in this endeavor now that the government has decided that the votes will take place as scheduled in May 2020 in accordance to the constitution. Spending time in arguing over the whether or not to postpone the elections would only be counter-productive, waste of time and in the worst case might prove devastating for the country’s still unborn democracy. This no doubt needs courage, honesty and commitment to democratic principles on the part of all the parties that will take place in election 20202 which might prove a defining historical moment for the long disenfranchised, cheated and abused people of Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday September 8/2019
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
