Some writers on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) say it was launched when Egypt was politically weak following the 2011 Arab Spring revolts in the country. This is an erroneous assumption to say the least. Ethiopia has always dreamt about using the Nile water to develop its economy, rid itself of perennial famines and underdevelopment.
This idea has been floating around in Ethiopian political circles since the time of the monarchy, although the military administration and down to the EPRDF government now. Ethiopia was held back from living its dream simply because the political and diplomatic conjectures were not conducive to its objectives. There is time for everything, an Ethiopian saying has it. This is to say that any dream is realized when the appropriate time for its realization comes.
As history testifies, different Egyptian governments were not in favor of giving up the so-called sovereignty over the Nile waters they claimed resulting from the British colonial treaty also known as Nile Waters Agreement of 1928 under which the downstream riparian countries were obliged to secure the permission of the Egyptian government to make use of the Nile waters in any form.
This was the single most formidable challenge on the path of Ethiopia’s aspirations over the Nile. From king Farouk who was deposed by Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Free Officers movement in 1956.
From Nasser down Hosni Mubarak, successive Egyptian governments relied on this unequal treaty to frustrate any attempt by riparian states to develop their economies by using the waters of the Nile.
Nasser built the Aswan Dam on the Nile after the Western countries and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development refused to finance it. He turned to the former Soviet Union for help and secured something close to $92 million in the form of a 12-year, 2.5% interest loan to be applied to the construction of the first three stages required for the completion of the dam.
There is a striking parallel between Egypt aspirations under Nasser to build the Aswan high dam and Ethiopia’s present day aspirations to build a hydroelectric power station on the Nile. Both aspirations were driven by the wuest for economic development.
Egypt’s objective was to develop its agricultural economy by using the waters of the Nile more than 80% of which came from the Ethiopian highlands. Ethiopia’s quest to implement the GERD project was also driven by its developmental aspirations. So there was no reason for Egypt to oppose Ethiopia’s pursuit as it was also nurturing similar dreams of economic development back in the 1950s.
It was therefore impossible for Ethiopia to implement its dream of using the Nile for its own development as Egypt was busy building dams, hydroelectric power plants and other projects on the same river. The years of Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak were not conducive for Ethiopia’s dream of using the Nile waters as these regimes used the same archaic and defunct British Treaty to defend their positions and sometimes used the threat of force in case Ethiopia goes ahead with its plan.
Under Mubarak, Egypt held Secretary General of the UN through Boutors Boutros Galli, a very astute diplomat who was allegedly promoting Egyptian interests over those of African states in this part of the continent. It was therefore farfetched for Ethiopia to implement its long-held dream over the Nile since the diplomatic situation and the relations of power in this part of Africa were favorable to its interests.
Ethiopia had to wait many decades and considerable efforts to finally come up with its plan to use the Nile waters to develop its economy , which is a legitimate aspiration as Egypt’s building of a dam on the same river was. So, the thesis that Ethiopia waited until Egypt was politically weak to launch its project is not only absurd but also cynical. The Arab Spring revolts were the works of the Egyptian people themselves and Ethiopia had nothing to do with it. Less so, it has no magic wand with which to direct the fate of nations in the region.
Ethiopia’s launching of the GERD project and the political turmoil in Egypt back in 2011 only could be a historical coincidence or the work of fate and not a calculated move. The late president Mohamed Morsi was quoted as saying that even a single drop could not be taken away from Egypt’s share of the Nile waters. This was a declaration aimed at garnering support for his Muslim Brothers constituency rather than being a realistic, informed and balanced statement.
When the present Egyptian government came to power, the GERD project was in a way a fait accompli since constructions have been advancing at a breakneck speed simply because Ethiopia was eager to get rid of poverty, famine and economic underdevelopment. Under current president Sisi, Egypt has increasingly become friendly to Ethiopia’s quest to build the GERD project on the basis of the equitable distribution of the Nile waters among the riparian.
Time have now changed both in Egypt and Ethiopia as well as in the region and the world. In this increasingly globalised world where the interests of nations small or big are intertwined and mutually complimentary, such a positive and cooperative and constructive attitude from Egypt, a sister country which is bound with Ethiopia by history as well as by the Nile, is the correct attitude to take.
Diplomacy is not the work of a day, a week or a year. It requires patience and sustainable efforts, positive attitude and an African spirit to deal with issues that need solutions without hurting any partner in the process. Such a win-win attitude emerges after dark corners are lighted up, and suspicions are replaced with trust. Leaving aside all the nonsense that circulates in the world of the social media, regarding Ethio- Egyptian relations over the Nile waters, the situation is far from being intractable or dramatic.
On the contrary, the two countries are consulting each other on aspects of the Tripartite Agreement that need clarification and this is a diplomatic routine that any country or countries engage in. Despite the ups and downs in negotiations so far, there are still remaining issues to be hammered out, such as the pace with which the GERD dam will be filled and the amount of water it will release for Egypt…etc…
An article in the African Report no. 271 published by the International Crisis Group and appeared last March, elaborated on the tripartite agreement that formed the foundation for further consultations between the three stakeholders as follows, “The most active negotiations over the GERD have taken place in tripartite talks involving Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
The talks kicked off in 2011, soon after the announcement of the GERD, when the parties formed a trilateral joint technical committee to discuss a way forward. The parties notched an important achievement on 23 March 2015, when they endorsed a “declaration of principles” for resolving the dam crisis. The document calls on all sides to “cooperate based on common understanding, mutual benefit and good faith…”
According to some observers, these issues are bound to be resolved in time while advising all sides to keep the door open for continued negotiations. Low level shuttle diplomacy is therefore bound to continue until all the issues will be addressed to the full satisfaction of the parties involved in the marathon negotiations.
Other observers maintain that the present reformist government in Ethiopia has shown enough flexibility to accommodate the different positions of the various negotiators. It is also estimated to do so in the future while construction on the GERD will continue unabated despite the small internal difficulties it encountered last year.
Ethiopia will certainly continue to promote its win-win diplomacy while building the dam and addressing thorny issues that might lead to a deadlock in negotiations. Egypt has maintained a positive attitude on most critical issues while seeking guarantees to secure the amount of water it needs once the dam is built.
All these issues are solvable in due time and this is the most important point. No amount of wild speculation in the social media will change the situation and all sides understand this. No one thought that one day Ethiopia could build the biggest dam on the Nile and no one at present would expect that one day Egypt and Ethiopia will use the GERD to cement their economic cooperation in the interest of Africa’s greater quest of achieving regional integration and economic development.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday Edition 18 August 2019
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
