One of President Hassan Sheikh’s harshest critics is his Somaliland counterpart Muse Bihi, who has accused him of dishonesty – no surprise. However, the main issue raised by many of the Somali president’s critics is his obsession with foreign travel. They even called him the “flying president”. And no matter where he flew, Hassan Sheikh seems to have made a habit of making inflammatory speeches against neighboring Ethiopia. Since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the governments of Ethiopia and the self-declared Republic of Somaliland last New Year’s Day, he has done so constantly.
However, his recent speech in the Somali parliament, in which he denounced Ethiopia, was unexpected, especially considering the positive and hopeful news we heard from Türkiye just a few days earlier. The Joint Ankara Statement made by Ethiopia and Somalia, both represented by a delegation led by their respective foreign ministers, said the two countries had agreed to continue their negotiation at the beginning of the coming September in Türkiye. It was news welcomed by the people of both countries, as it heralded the two governments were taking the right direction to resolve their arguments and diffuse the tension building up the Horn.
Unfortunately, Hassan Sheikh’s speech splashed cold water on our hearts that had been warmed by the glimmer of hope emanating from the talks held in Türkiye. The Somali president was expected to make a cautious statement on the preliminary peace talks and not to disturb the fragile atmosphere created by the Turkish peace mediators that could develop into a basis for direct peace negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia in the coming September.
We had expected the Somali government to issue a statement similar to that of its Ethiopian counterpart. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its hope and confidence in the peace efforts in Türkye and assured that it would make unconditional efforts to work with its Somali partner to secure peace in the region.
“The Ministers, through Türkiye’s facilitation, were able to separately have a candid, cordial, and forward-looking exchange concerning their differences and explored perspectives towards addressing them within a mutually acceptable framework. The Ministers of Somalia and Ethiopia reiterated their commitment to the peaceful resolution of differences,” says the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Starting with the positive action taken by the Somali government, it quitted its intransigence not to negotiate without pre-conditions and was willing to sit for preliminary talks in Türkiye. That is a considerable improvement made by the Somali government that deserves praise. However, the government has continued to make negative PR campaigns against Ethiopia that would negatively affect the prospect of the negotiation procession.
The Somali government seems to be sticking with this negative PR campaign even though it knows such actions endanger the peace initiative, which is the only wise way out of the current political tension building up in the Horn, a situation that would if left unaddressed, have detrimental consequences to both the Ethiopian and Somali peoples. Instead of engaging with the Ethiopian government for peaceful talks to reach a common understanding and defuse the political tension, the Somali government is trying to ferment the misunderstanding into a regional political crisis that invites the involvement of influential world powers already actively pursuing their national interests in the region. As seen in the past, the interference of such powers would only complicate and exacerbate tensions.
There are two possible explanations for why the Somali government is acting irresponsibly in such a manner. It is using the developing diplomatic row with the Ethiopian government as a tool of nationalism to galvanize the Somali people under its leadership. At the same time by dragging the stable Ethiopian government into diplomatic hot water, Hassan Sheikh is desperately trying to aggrandize his self-image as a president of a strong and stable government worthy of the status of a fully-fledged, assertive and powerful government.
However, the truth on the ground is the other way around. A Research paper published only two months ago by an American military intelligence institute asks: “An important question for the future of Somalia is if the African Union withdraws the remainder of its forces from the country by December 31, 2024, would the Somali National Army (SNA) or Al-Shabaab be stronger militarily?”. Let alone the regional towns, Mogadishu is still an easy target for Al-Shabaab. Only a few days ago, a car bomb right in the capital city claimed several lives and injured many others.
In a nutshell, as things stand now the survival of Hassan Sheikh’s government is directly linked to the continued presence of foreign peacekeeping forces, like the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), in one form or another. It is highly doubtful that the troops of the newly established Somali Security Forces would emulate the war-hardened soldiers of the ATMIS especially the Ethiopians in the continuing fight against Al-Shabaab.
Realizing that Hassan Sheikh has already requested the troop supplier, AU and the mission financiers, the UN and world powers, to preempt the possible creation of a security vacuum in that nation by installing a post-ATMIS mission. What is more, it is hard to imagine how well Al Shabaab, a terrorist group that proved itself to be a menace to the Horn’s peace, would use the possible security vacuum that might be developed following the departure of ATMIS, by the timetable set in the Somali Transition Plan, STP.
The other possible reason for Hassan Sheikh’s warmongering attitude is his involvement in a lucrative strategic alliance with Egypt, which has always been working to see to it that Ethiopia remains landlocked and thus disabled from realizing its economic potential. It is to be recalled that the first two countries Hassan Sheikh visited soon after he was elected president in 2022 were Egypt and Eritrea. Since then, he made several visits to those countries to meet the leaders and strategize their moves, which undoubtedly are plans that resulted to the detriment of the people of the Horn, causing instability and further chaos.
The Somali government therefore employs prevarication as a strategy to deceive the international community into believing it is genuinely committed to resolving the diplomatic dispute between the two countries peacefully. Shik Mahamoud stated in a recent speech that his government is willing to dialogue peacefully while accusing Ethiopia of being unresponsive to negotiations. This is an outright lie.
If the Somali government truly believes in and is interested in a peaceful resolution, then why did it expel the Ethiopian ambassador from Mogadishu, and recall its ambassador from Addis-Ababa? During Shiek Mohamud’s trip to Addis Ababa last February for the AU’s annual summit, why did he decline the opportunity to meet and talk with Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed?
The Somali leadership should rather align its actions with a firm conviction that the best strategy for shared prosperity for the people of Somalia and Ethiopia is peaceful coexistence by ironing out differences through honest direct talks without pre-conditions or third-party mediators. It should also recognize the fact that Ethiopia has never initiated policies that violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of any of its neighbours, including Somalia.
There is one historical fact that would stand as a living testimony to Ethiopia’s unwavering stance on respecting the territorial integrity of Somalia. Back in the late 1950s, when Somali provinces were bracing to declare independence from their colonizers, the clan leaders of the Somaliland Protectorate, now Somaliland, came to Ethiopia with a groundbreaking proposal to discuss with the Ethiopian Emperor Hailesellasie and his advisors.
In short, they proposed to unite Somaliland with Ethiopia. The clan leaders, who remain the influential drivers of Somali politics to this day, justified their proposal by saying that they are more biologically, socially, and economically connected to Somali communities in Ethiopia than those in southern Somalia, which was an Italian colony.
That was an astounding proposal for Ethiopian authorities. But what was more surprising than the proposal of the Somaliland clan leaders, was the response of the Ethiopian authorities. They declined the request for unification. The exact reason for the rejection should be studied by historians and political scientists.
According to some Ethiopian officials who had insider knowledge about this historical event, the Ethiopian authorities felt that they would be seen as expansionist by the international community. Thus their motive for the extensive support they provide for the anti-colonial struggle across the continent might be called into question by the freedom fighters. More importantly, they were preoccupied with the multifaceted task of maintaining and consolidating the fledgling federation union between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s commitment to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia remains unchanged to this generation. In his recent speech at the parliament, the premier said: “No one should lose sight of the fact that Ethiopia has been defending Somalia’s peace and stability with the blood and bone of its sons and daughters, many of whom paid the ultimate sacrifice in the fight against lawlessness and terrorism in that nation. As a closely intertwined neighbour, we always want to see peace and development prevail in Somalia. Ethiopia seeks to get sea access without harming anyone and its strategy is based on win-win principles, benefiting not only Ethiopia but the entire region by strengthening regional cooperation and sharing resources. Ethiopia’s quest for sea access is justified. If there is any issue with this quest, it can be solved through dialogue. ”
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SATURDAY 20 JULY 2024
