There are several situations that occur around the current state of Nile politics which lead us to conclusions with fair level of confidence. When Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was established in 1999, it was not meant to stay for a quarter of a century, rather it was only to serve as a temporary or provisional body for just a few years that lay foundation for the establishment of a permanent regional organization responsible for ensuring peaceful , equitable and sustainable use of the Nile. “The NBI was meant to serve an ad-hoc arrangement until the Nile river riparian member countries agree on a permanent legal and institutional framework for sustainable development of the Nile Basin” wrote a researcher.
It took over a decade for the Nile riparian states to negotiate and reach a consensus to carve out an agreement document. The Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) in 2009/10. Even if it is long overdue, it was a landmark achievement in the Nile politics, as the previous agreements made among riparian states were non-inclusive, do not recognize equality of rights of co-riparian and do not work towards equitable share of the river’s resources.
The Nile agreements made before CFA were either about technical corporation at best [like Hydromet, UNDUGU, and TECCONILE ]or providing exclusive rights to Egypt and Sudan to exploit the Nile waters with total disregard to the other riparian states as if they do not exist [ like the 1959 Nile water agreement]. The extent of unfairness of this agreement can be easily felt by the fact that it effectively bestows the full utilization rights of Nile water to the two lower riparian states which account for only one fifth of the total population in the Nile basin.
However, even after taking over a decade time to come up with CFA document, the document is still incomplete. To put it differently, there is no final draft of CFA that won the approval of all riparian states. Section B of Article 14 of the document, which deals with the contentious issue of water security still remain blank, waiting for the future commission yet to be established, The Nile River Basin Commission, to fill it.
What is more, as indicated in the document itself the CFA was supposed to be signed by all riparian states within two years after it has been finalized, that is by 2011. But it turned out that, until this year, in 2024, only six of the 11 riparian states have signed it and only five have ratified it. There is no surprise in finding Sudan and Egypt in the list of riparian states that refused to sign and ratify the document. The reason is clear. The document is meant to put an end to the long standing inequitable use of the Nile water.
“The CFA was indeed a departure in the management of the Nile, for its objective was equitable utilization that would erode the so called “historic rights”, and it has sought to ease the traditionally hostile Nile riparian’s and create a spirit of cooperation among them, says a Nile scholar.
What is intriguing is why Kenya wants to stay away from the act of ratifying CFA? Why such upper stream countries like DR Congo, South-Sudan, Eritrea decide not to even sign the document let alone to ratify it in to law?
This question is essay to explain for the one who scrutinized the intense defense and economic diplomacy the Egyptians have been doing over the last few years with those upper stream states who are purposely dragging their feet and procrastinating to sign and /or ratify the CFA . It is a pubic secret that Egypt is maneuvering an intensive charm offensive in Nile basin states through high budget military, intelligence, and economic cooperation with the aim of luring them away from their commitment to the NBI.
Cairo recently emerged as a very active and influential player in the Central and East Africa in general and in the Nile Basin in particular. Kenya has become the primary tool of Egypt’s Nile strategy. That happened following the signing of a defense cooperation pact in May 2021 between the two states, and Egypt’s pledged of support for development projects in Kenya.
A month later, in June 2021, Egypt signed military cooperation agreement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo to deepen joint military and security cooperation with Kinshasa, in addition to providing technical and operational assistance to the Congolese military.
During 2020, South Sudan used to deny its secret diplomatic courtship with Egypt for defense agreement. But in 2023 it become public that Egypt and South Sudan signed a military agreement that covers various areas of military cooperation, including military training, exchange of information, and joint military exercises
Generally, it appears that Egypt is pursuing a Nile strategy that it believe would enable it to maintain its geopolitical influence in the region and thus protect its unrealistic and outdated ‘historical rights’ over the Nile waters. Sadly the strategy seems to be working so far, as many of the riparian states are falling for Egyptian offers which are just unsustainable individual gains paying only lip service to the sustainable collective development potential promised in the NBI objectives.
So the Matter boils down to real commitment. After a quarter of a century, NBI is still a multinational partnership with no political and legal power more like regional knowledge center rather than dynamic center working to bring change in the Nile politics. The reason for this is all of its member are not genuinely sharing the goal of the initiative and exert equal effort for the realization of its goals.
Above all things the pivotal task enforcing the CFA should have done at least during the Past decade, enabling it a binding law that would become a game changer in the politics and a foundation for peaceful and equitable utilization of the Nile resources.
In a speech she made at an event held to observe the 25th anniversary NBI the Ugandan Vice president, Jessica Alupo, recently emphasized the paramount importance of CFA and the urgent need to ensure its entry into force .
Ethiopia has become an exemplary role model for other member state of the NBI by becoming the very first state that ratified into law the Nile Basin CFA in June 13, 2013, even far earlier than the country that is the host nation of NBI, Uganda. Thus Ethiopia has practically proven its commitment to ensuring equitable and reasonable utilization of the Nile as well as investing in transformative water and energy infrastructure projects.
Standing firm against various unfair diplomatic and economic pressures, Ethiopia has also exercised its rights to develop its natural resources with in its sovereign territories, a right enshrined in CFA ,and is sharing the fruits of its development efforts with its neighbors to promote mutual benefits and regional economic integration .In doing so, one can say that, Ethiopia has already began implementing the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement”, which is to achieve sustainable socioeconomic development through equitable utilization of, and mutual benefit from, the common Nile Basin resources.
So, what is the future holds for NBI and for the realization of equitable use of the Nile waters among the riparian states? Undoubtedly there is a long way of diplomatic struggle to reach there. NBI’s motto which says; one river, one people, one vision, will remain a mirage, unless all the upper riparian states follow Ethiopia’s example, and emulate Ethiopia’s determination. The difficulty of this struggle is indicated by the speech made last September by the former Ethiopian Deputy Premier: “The lack of political will and hegemonic tendencies over shared resources immensely contribute to little or no cooperation. These challenges will continue to stand against shared aspirations of riparian countries to ensure sustainable development. It is high time to redouble efforts to deal with the challenges building on the great strides the countries have made in the past to ensure equitable and reasonable use of trans-boundary resources.” ,he said.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 20 MARCH 2024
