Sudan is currently in turmoil. After Omar al-Bashir’s government was overthrown, the country is now facing a severe tension between the Transitional Military Council and civilian groups who demand complete reform and transition.
Before he was ousted from power, Omar al-Bashir repeatedly faced protests and took various measures including declaring a State of Emergency, dissolving central and state governments, appointing a new Prime Minister, and banning unauthorized demonstrations. But, all that could not solve the political turmoil in that country. He failed to come up with the everlasting solution.
And, on April 11, 2019, al-Bashir was overthrown in a military coup and placed under arrest. After a while, protesters raised another question, they seek civilian rule as Transitional Military Council retains power, leading to the current crisis.
Neighboring countries should play their part in bringing both the civilians and transitional military council to the negotiating table, and work towards establishing an inclusive civilian government, say experts.
Professor Merara Gudina, a Political Science expert tells The Ethiopian Herald that the overthrow of Sudanese President Omar Hassen al-Bashir is a sign of reform. The recent case of Sudan is customarily practiced in many African countries. In some way, this is a lesson for African autocrats.
Currently, Sudan is at a crossroad and the country needs fast transition before things become more troublesome. He states that sustaining stability in Sudan may take time. “If the political situation of Sudan does not get solution soon, it will affect its citizens and also the neighboring countries.”
The countries in the Horn must pressurize the military council and political forces to come to the negotiating table, and establish a civilian-led government. In my opinion, there is no option better than this.
As Sudan is located in a volatile region, it will affect the whole Horn region utmost, and it is not a good sign. Arbitration can potentially play a significant role in enabling both sides reach national consensus, and diffuse the country’s political turmoil, he underscores.
Countries should support the country instead of interfering in its internal affairs for the sake of their interest, he notes. Dareskedar Taye, Political Science researcher at Meles Zenawi Leadership Academy, seconded Merera’s idea. He says that overthrow of a long standing dictator is a success story for Sudanese people. Generally, it is a good lesson for autocrat leaders, and an opportunity for Sudanese people to have open political space.
For me, Sudanese situation has two implications or prospects, Darsekedar says. The first implication is if the political forces are unable to establish a transitional government swiftly, the political crisis will spill over into neighboring countries and global politics as well.
As many countries have interest on Sudan, the current political unrest could lead to endless political disorder. However, the first of the best mechanisms for Sudan is bringing stability by itself. What is more, countries in the Horn should get involved in the arbitration process and assist the country to achieve lasting peace, stability and thereby establish civilian government, he adds.
The second implication is if the ongoing transition has an opportunity to end peacefully and transition to democracy, it is better to develop democratic state and good prospect for neighboring countries as well as global politics. On the other hand, if the political unrest is continued, terrorist groups interfere in the country and aggravate the current scenario, he notes.
According to him, recently, the transitional military council is taking strong aggressive measures to bring peace and stability back. In my opinion, the measure is disregarding the participation and interest of civilians and it will bring some seasonably reforms to sustain stability. But, the forceful measure doesn’t support the transition process it would rather open people’s mind to raise questions in the future.
Sharing Prof. Merera’s idea, Dareskedar insists neighboring countries have to pressurize Sudan so as to establish inclusive civilian government, provide advice to halt aggressive measures on civilians, undertake round table discussions, and arbitrate the situation peacefully.
However, considering the case of Sudan as their own internal affair, countries must apply various diplomatic techniques such as soft methodology, mediation and other means to cool down the situation and facilitate ways that leads to the establishment of civilian-led government. Especially, neutral countries that have no interest on Sudanese matter can play a better role to stabilize the country.
The Ethiopian Herald, June 13/2019
BY TSEGAYE TILAHUN
