BY DEJEN RAS
The ongoing peace talks between the Government of Ethiopia and the terrorist TPLF leaders in South Africa are the focus of many people right now. It is led by the African Union (AU) and mediated by the AU chairperson’s High Representative for the Horn of Africa, Obasanjo, South Africa’s former Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Representatives of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the United Nations (UN), and the Government of the United States of America (USA) are participating as observers in the AU-led peace process. Behind the scene, the west is attempting to actively drive the process.
Almost everyone is asking what will result from such peace talks when these groups of bandits have no leverage to bargain for whatever claim they want to get. The government has almost the upper hand right now. Of course, Ethiopians remember the same kind of scenario three decades ago when the Derg military representatives and the rebels had a “peace talks” in London in 1991. The West mediated it. At that time, the rebels, including TPLF, had the upper hand; they were on the outskirts of Addis Ababa.
The negotiators on the part of the central government, who were three in number at the time, were left in limbo when it was decided for the rebels to take control of 4-kilo, Addis Ababa. Now, the ENDF army is on the outskirts of Mekele. Some of the top leaders of TPLF are in Pretoria, not London or New York. Somehow, this seems to be a similar situation to 1991. However, one crucial difference between these two events is the role and aim of those who pull the strings for the talks. This piece points out this aspect as follows.
The 1991 peace negotiation in London
The main force behind the peace talks in 1991 in London, the Western countries like the USA and UK, had one main goal. They were negotiating with the Derg military not to fight in the capital city of Addis Ababa as it is the seat for the headquarters of the African Union; Mengistu was vowing to fight till the last breath; people everywhere were reorganizing to fight back the rebels; the rebels were very far away from their base, and they cannot sustain a long fight. We all remember the war around Ambo, where rebels lost many of their fighters. If such momentum was continuing, the rebels might not be in power. They understood the risk. So peace talks in London were a negotiation to avoid that potential bloody war in Addis and the surrounding areas.
On May 28, 1991, the Washington Post reported, “a top U.S. State Department official here urged rebel forces to enter the city under the cease-fire and restore order as soon as possible.… Ethiopia’s Prime Minister vehemently objected to a U.S. recommendation that rebels enter the besieged Ethiopian capital to “help stabilize the situation.” This suggestion was made by Herman Cohen, assistant secretary of state for African affairs and moderator of the “peace talks”. He announced that “all parties in the Ethiopian conflict had agreed to a cease-fire and said that the rebel leadership “has assured us that they plan for a broadly based provisional government leading to a democratic constitution for Ethiopia.” These statements clarify those forces’ intentions and roles behind the negotiation.
The 2022 peace talks in Pretoria
This negotiation between the federal government and the terrorist TPLF began in South Africa on October 25 in Pretoria. This happens due to the principle of African Solutions to African Problems. Not bad, but is this truly an African solution? Looking at the intense involvement of the West in the peace process, one doubts that. It seems now that the T-TPLF has lost the war on the ground after launching a three-round bloody war. They have sacrificed hundreds of thousands of Tigrayan people. They promised big for their enablers, but they fell short of delivering even a few. Since the people in Tigray will experience true freedom from almost half a century of dominance, TPLF will never regain that kind of dominance it used to have.
TPLF is nothing but asset to western interest groups. Do you remember the recent talk of one of the generals of TPLF to the Heritage Foundation? He was begging for help. It was the single most important evidence that showed how they were paramilitary assets of the West. To provide context on how the Heritage Foundation was involved, it is enough to refer to the report by the Washington Post in 1984. It states as follows: “The Reagan administration in its second term should use “paramilitary assets” to weaken the governments of Vietnam, Cambodia, Libya and other unfriendly nations around the world, the Heritage Foundation said in a report presented to the White House last week.” These unfriendly nations for the West list included Ethiopia at that time. TPLF was among the ones that had been picked for the job. That is it. They were vital assets until they were found sleeping with others!
Rescuing assets is a usual practice for the West.
Reports are coming out that the T-TPLF members that are participating in the South Africa peace talk were moved from Mekele to Djibouti and then to South Africa by the USA military aircraft accompanied by the special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer. Their numbers are reported to be between 40 and 50. This has to be verified yet since there are only twelve people listed to travel to South Africa in one letter written by terrorist leader, Dr. Debretsion that went viral on social media. However, there are pieces of evidence that many others have left Mekele in this desperate time under the cover of the peace talk. That is why we ask if this is a peace talk or a rescue mission.
Rescuing an asset, a spy, military personnel, political figures, and so on are among the themes of Hollywood films that draw many viewers in the world. Real-life contexts inspire many such films. There will come a time soon when we watch movies showing the daring rescue mission that took out the main assets from Mekele. It is the intense work of Mike Hammer and those behind the scene. However, Mike’s role is different from Herman Cohen’s. The latter was taking the rebels to Addis Ababa, but Mike had to take them to a safe place in Djibouti and further to different places. There are more rumors that the rebel leaders are heading to Canada to seek asylum there. That means the mission is somehow completed.
We are still waiting for the outcome of the peace talk. It seems unbalanced powers sitting at a table for talks. On the one hand, the government has the upper hand on the T-TPLF; on the other hand, it is the most powerful nation on the planet that is abusing its power against a sovereign nation. Of course, the world is changed. They cannot act alone and decide whatever they want as they did in 1991. We will see the result together, but at least they have done their rescue mission. Their top assets are in safe pair of hands. Now the West has to accept this result as a win, move on in life, and leave Ethiopians alone.
The key difference between the 1991 and 2022 peace talks is the interest of the West. At that time, a few of Derg’s top leaders left the country in 1991. This time, some top leaders of TPLF have left the country. Fairly talking, the equation should stop here. The decision in 1991 was in line with their interest, but now it might be against their interest. As said above, at least they have saved their image by saving their assets. The West should be contented with this result and should not push it further. The world then and now has quite different. They can even listen to their own Herman Cohen’s advice, who twitted the following:
Peace is vital for all Ethiopians, including the Tigrarans , who were used by T-TPLF as hardware to fulfill their power-recapturing program in the country. The people in Tigray need it most! Ethiopians are tired of this bloody war since TPLF started the war on November 4, 2020, by attacking the headquarters of the ENDF Northern Command in Mekelle, and ENDF bases in Adigrat, Agula, Dansha, and Sero, sparking harsh Ethiopian federal government response. This talk happened when the T-TPLF lost control of almost 95% of Tigray, if not 100%. The country can solve its problems effectively if those powers back off. In fact, if they leave the country alone to solve its problems, they will get a stable country that can contribute to the stable world order they profess to see.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
The Ethiopian Herald October 29/2022
