Due to the increment of population density impacting in all rounded development, Ethiopia should consider to utilize scientific outfits to solve critical hurdles to advance the country, according to Ethiopia 2050 think thank group report.
On the report, as Ethiopia’s population continues to grow and reach 200 million by 2050, the magnitude of the challenges can be enormous. This is especially the case with the growing demand for basic and critical infrastructures in water, food, energy, housing, transportation; sustainable management of natural resources; and a health system that is efficient, equitable and able to withstand epidemic shocks such as the current pandemic.
And, by 2000, Ethiopia’s population had nearly doubled to reach 66 million. This represents an increase of 31.2 million in only 15 years. During this period, Ethiopia was struggling to feed, cloth, educate, and create employment opportunities for 31.2 million additional members of a new generation of Ethiopians. The population appears to have grown to an estimated 115 million in the subsequent 20 years. Of these, almost 50 million are in the 0-20 age group, a large block that requires access to education and healthcare services now, and employment opportunities in the near future.
In this regard, the country maintained a relatively strong average annual GDP growth of 8.8 percent between 2000-2019 and reduced poverty from 30 percent in 2011 to 24 percent in 2016. However, more needs to be done to meet the demand for economic and social services from a population that is growing at the rate of 2.5 million people per year. Currently, an estimated 78 percent of the population lives on less than 2.00 USD a day.
A subset of this population lives on less than 1.25 USD a day. Further, 13 million citizens are currently sustained through food aid and safety net programs. The high rate of population growth continues to have notable impact on the economic, social, and political life of Ethiopians.
For example, in rural Ethiopia, farmers and their families continue to be impacted significantly as their plot sizes are decreasing at rates that are making farming unsustainable for the future generations. In southern Ethiopia, for instance, the average plot size per farm house-hold had declined to as low as 0.46 hectares by 2014-2015.
It is clear that land shortage is becoming acute and the average plot size per household in parts of the country could further decline drastically. Sustained population increase will continue to put pressure on the availability of croplands and exacerbate conflicts between agriculturalists and pastoralists, further straining already existing tensions.
This population growth and the ensuing land scarcity are leading to landlessness, particularly among the rural youth. Subsequently, in an ironical turn of events from the “land for the tiller” movement days that eventually led to the 1974 rural land reform, practices such as land renting and sharecropping are reemerging.
In many aspects, these destabilizing factors act as a “push-factor” and explain the increasing migration of young men and women from various parts of Ethiopia to cities like Addis Ababa, the Gulf Countries, South Africa, and elsewhere to seek better opportunities.
The rise of working age adults could fuel growth and development breakdown of the population by age groups shows that in 2020, the size of the working-age population (15-64) stands at about 56 million (50 percent of the population). The remaining 50 percent of the population (i.e., 56 million) depends on the first segment of the population for its livelihood.
The share of the working age population in the country was on a downward trajectory between 1960 and 2000. It reached a low of about 51 percent in the late 1990s. It then started rising around 2000. If the current growth rate is maintained, its share is expected to reach 63 percent which corresponds to a total population of 100 million in another fifteen years.
This will be larger than the dependent population (0-14 and 65+) of 60 million people. In other words, within fifteen years, Ethiopia will have a working-age young population of about 100 million. If this group is given education of high quality especially for girls, relevant skills, and opportunities for productive employment, it can help Ethiopia achieve its ambitious goal to become a middle-income country within this decade.
The accelerated demographic transition that started in 2000, offers a tangible demographic dividend that, in turn, presents the country with an opportunity to diversify its economy to include an advanced industrial sector and a more developed digital economy. In particular, the influx of the young to urban areas presents a formidable challenge. The associated major challenges are that 70 percent of Ethiopia’s population does not have adequate access to electricity, only half of the population has access to clean water, and only 15 percent has access to improved toilets, and only 16 percent has access to the internet.
Employment opportunities for 2.5 million additional young men and women every year for the next 15 years will require careful planning and implementation. As a result, the risks associated with not meeting this unprecedented demand for socio-economic opportunities are a major threat to Ethiopia’s population.
If actions are not taken on time and effectively, a restless and unemployed generation of young men and women will be forced to continue migrating to urban areas and outside the country. Young people with no opportunity to migrate may engage in socially undesirable activities, thus creating risks of social and political instability.
In addition, large-scale and sustained conflicts over limited resources could ensue. This is likely to be the case with limited and inequitable access to agricultural and grazing lands, essential services such as clean water supply, housing facilities, employment opportunities, and education and health services. Such conflicts could, in turn, en-danger the livelihood of the overall population.
It is noteworthy that the disruptions created by limited opportunities will also be acutely felt in the urban areas as the “push factors” from rural areas will, by themselves, add about 50 million people to the cities in the next 30 years. Ethiopia at the crossroads in the meantime, twenty years into the 21st century, Ethiopia finds itself at a cross-road, where an environment of significant structural societal challenges that continue to threaten it intersect with historical opportunities such as an emerging demo-graphic dividend and a shifting favorable geopolitical environment that it can take advantage of.
For example, for the short-term, at least, once the coronavirus pandemic is addressed both at the global and national levels, Ethiopia can take advantage of its unique geographical location and a large and growing working-age population which has a high demand for good education, remunerative employment, and a meaningful as well as healthy life.
Therefore, it is important to take thoughtful measures to predict the demand for socio-economic services and develop effective strategies to meet this demand. Otherwise, it will be hard to achieve growth that is inclusive, reduces poverty, and benefits from emerging global opportunities. In fact, without a proactive identification of challenges and development of policies and strategies involving critical sectors, Ethiopia is likely to experience social and political instability at scales unimagined before.
In the meantime, twenty years into the 21st century, Ethiopia finds itself at a cross-road, where an environment of significant structural societal challenges that continue to threaten it intersect with historical opportunities such as an emerging demo-graphic dividend and a shifting favorable geopolitical environment that it can take advantage of.
In this regard, Ethiopia can take advantage of its unique geographical location and a large and growing working-age population which has a high demand for good education, remunerative employment, and a meaningful as well as healthy life.
In this respect, the post-pandemic world is likely to be characterized by realignment of the global supply chain with demands for multiple sources of manufactured goods and digital services. Such realignment is bound to offer substantial economic opportunities for countries like Ethiopia that are planning effectively to benefit from new opportunities.
It is important to take thoughtful measures to predict the demand for socio-economic services and develop effective strategies to meet this demand. Otherwise, it will be hard to achieve growth that is inclusive, reduces poverty, and benefits from emerging global opportunities. In fact, without a proactive identification of challenges and development of policies and strategies involving critical sectors, Ethiopia is likely to experience social and political instability at scales unimagined before.
In this respect, the post-pandemic world is likely to be characterized by realignment of the global supply chain with demands for multiple sources of manufactured goods and digital services. Such realignment is bound to offer substantial economic opportunities for countries like Ethiopia that are planning effectively to benefit from new opportunities.
BY MEHARI BEYENE
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD OCTOBER 8/2021
