BY JOSEPH SOBOKA
Without utmost care, in a live concert anything can happen, like the breaking of a spring of one of the instruments keys. There can be consequences depending on the status of the ensemble. Therefore, to avoid repeated mistakes, one should be acquainted to top level orchestra. The issue of the Nile River is similar to a musician who knows well about how the instruments are played. As far as how the shareholders of the Nile use the river is concerned, other than the three countries, no external force should decide for them.
Ethiopia, for that matter, has the right for fair share of the water of the Nile River, the underlying issue for the crisis in Tigray. The musicians in this symphony are using broken strings producing out of chord sound. The important thing is that the player admitting his mistake, should not repeat another mistake in the performance as his ability will be in question.
It is an alienable right of Ethiopia to harness the benefits from the Nile River that flows right from her bosom. In the wake of twenty-first century, compelled by the dire need of electric power and economic initiative, Ethiopia embarked on the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that will not have a negatively impact on the interests or the Nile Basin Countries. The endeavor could have been in place a century age. Yet, due to the illogical pressure put upon Ethiopia by Egypt assisted by the super powers, Ethiopia had to forfeit her right to the river.
Nevertheless, the drainage the fertile soil along with flow of the river has rendered incalculable benefits to Egypt and other countries in the basin, specifically the Sudan,. For precision sake and proper elucidation of the exact situation, Egypt’s Aswan Dam has the capacity holding 164 BCM. The system of overhead cables carried on pylons for electric energy over a large area is 74 BCM.
The unfair and unacceptable of Egypt and Sudan that the Grand Renaissance Dam will deny the basin countries’ the right share of Nile water can further be refuted by the Nubian Sand Storm Aquifer that is located underground eastern end of the Sahara desert covering countries such as Chad, Egypt, Libya, Sudan and all the rest, of which the bulk of it is used by Egypt. On top of this, Egypt has the capacity to desalinate sea water for various purposes in addition to generating electric power from the Nile River for her local consumption and others. Coupled with that, Egypt has substantial annual rainfall to depend on.
The irony of the case is that the Nile keeps running nonstop, assuring the soil fertility for mainly Egypt and Sudan. In the face of such problem that puts Ethiopia in awkward situation, she has no river that remains in the country; they all speedily flow down to Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and the like. Therefore, building water storage facility is indispensable which will otherwise create and enhance national crisis imminently. As a matter of fact, to boost her holistic development, Ethiopia has been engaged in maintaining natural balance by intensifying Green Initiative by planting billions of trees for the last three years.
This being the fact, since Ethiopia has not had literary no share in Nile water, the option left to her is the right to harness the water, her natural gift, for electric power generation without imposing any negative impact on the interest of any of the stakeholders.
While this remains the fact, the allegation brought against Ethiopia predominantly is the river’s flow below the long-term average which is utterly unlikely. Ethiopia should have accused these countries responsible for making agreement with Egypt in 1959 entirely leaving out Ethiopia in where the Blue Nile begins. The blind verdict or decision reached at that time remains the major flaw in the whole issue.
On the contrary, the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam is in view of equitable and reasonable utilization predominantly by Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. It is predicted that the completion of the construction of the dam will eventually address the problems of electric power, regional economic growth and collaboration and for peace and security of the countries in the region and the continent at large. The allegation that the dam is a threat to the existence of Egypt is unfounded. It rather emanates from selfish motive that unfairly disregards the interest of others.
In fact, the excess flow of the Nile to Egypt forced Egypt to build Aswan Dam to control the annual floods on the Nile and prevents the damage that used to occur along the floodplain. The Aswan High Dam provides about a half of Egypt’s power supply and has improved navigation along the river by keeping the water flow consistent. The tragedy of the situation is that when Egypt enjoys the bounteous gift of the Nile extensively, and prosperity as a result, Ethiopia have been dangling in the mire of poverty due to the pressure put on her by international community that rally behind Egypt.
Now it is the right time for Ethiopia to raise her head up and delve into all the possibilities that will enable her to complete the construction of the Grand Dam. As a hydroelectric project, the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. It will also give Ethiopia more control over the Nile by creating a 74 billion cubic meter reservoir. In this case it does not mean that the benefits of the dam are limited to Ethiopia alone. If the three nations were able to reach an agreement on working together on managing the Nile, it would have a positive impact on everyone in the region.
Sudan would be able to share renewable energy generated by the dam and Sudanese agriculture would benefit from working with Ethiopia to control the flow of the river. The unnecessary and unwise wrangling over the situation is of no significant benefit to any party whatsoever. No need of flexing muscles for something that cannot be realized in such circumstance.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the new reality that should be based on just and fair deal by the three parties. It should be vividly noted that Africa’s longest river, the Nile, runs through 11 countries. One of them is Ethiopia which contributes about 85% of the Nile water flowing to Sudan and Egypt. The 11 nations are hoping that the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is currently under construction, will open up many new opportunities from electric power supply to reducing evaporation losses.
The undeniable fact is that when completed, the dam will have installed capacity to generate 6000 MW electricity to relieve Ethiopia of the acute energy shortage and also export to Sudan and possibly Egypt if need be. The dam can store 74 billion cubic meters of water, about half the volume of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. The size of the dam is not a threat to Egypt at all. It has been proven time and again within the last three years that Ethiopia’s high rainfall is reliable to contribute to the sufficient flow of water to the basin countries including Egypt.
The source of the Blue Nile, the largest contributor of the water, is in Ethiopia. Yet, Diplomatic concerns include the fact that, for a long time, Egypt and Sudan have believed that they have more right to the waters of the Nile than any other country. The Nile Basin Initiative was set up in 1999 to foster cooperation among the 11 countries that share the river. But its work has been hindered by Sudan and Egypt’s attitude, among other issues.
But the question is that while Ethiopia, of all the 11 countries, should be claimant of the lion’s share, on what basis do Egypt and Sudan desire a full control of the Nile? Which international power ascertains this claim unless blind folded? As per the rationality of the whole issue, even though Aswan Dam has been the biggest mega structure on the Nile River, when completed, Ethiopia’s dam will challenge the status quo set by the Aswan High Dam. Both dams, then, will tower over different portions of the Nile River – and starkly represent the dependence of the three nations namely Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the river’s water.
Ethiopia argues and has always tried to bring it to the attention of the international community that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will have no impact on water flow into the Nile, as Egypt tries to magnify the situation out of proportion, instead of agreeing that the hydropower dam will provide benefits to countries in the region, including Egypt and Sudan as a source of affordable electric power and as a major mechanism for the management of the Nile.
Yet, the stakeholders of the Nile come up with incessant controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with the intention to snatch the right of Ethiopia to utilize the Nile water for her development without affecting the interest of other claimant countries. It should be noted that Ethiopia has no ulterior motive whatsoever.
The Ethiopian Herald September 5/2021
