BY GETACHEW MINAS
The Arab League is an outcome of the extreme Arab nationalism during WW II when Arab countries were subjugated and controlled by European colonialists. It was created in Egypt that controlled it intensively for advancing Pan-Arabism at the expense of Pan-Africanism. As Dr. Aklog Birara put it correctly, the African Union is peripheral, only marginal or negligible for Arabs. Currently, due to the great efforts made by Ethiopia to overcome mass-poverty among the majority of its people using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), it has become the target for destruction by Pan-Arabism. The objective of GERD is very obviously a noble one, which should have been supported by all, including the West. Both the Arabs and the advanced countries should have supported it by all means. But, they stand on the wrong side of history.
The reason for targeting Ethiopia is the strong determination of the Pan-Arab movement which is nothing but control of the sources of Tikur Abbay or the Blue Nile. According to experts, they cannot do it against Turkey which is also another water source like Ethiopia. They believe that Turkey is militarily stronger and a member of NATO. As an upper riparian country, Turkey has constructed and is scheduled to construct several dams along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, bordering Iraq and Syria. These riparian countries have ceased from conducting war over water. Historically, actual war between countries over water took place 4,500 years ago!
Riparian countries settled conflicts over water through negotiations, avoiding wars. They were wise at sharing water through agreements based on scientific and technical data and information, but not by means of armed forces. Tikur Abbay or the Blue Nile is one of the trans-boundary Rivers that lack water sharing agreements. The time has now come for a Nile water sharing agreement. All the countries that depend on the Tikur Abbay or Blue Nile should focus on a resolution that is a basis for a rationale and equitable water sharing agreement. The AU can facilitate the agreement with technical assistance from UN specialized agencies and the WB. An equitable water sharing agreement of the Nile River is the only way out of the current crises. The Arab League would have made a significant contribution for peace, stability and prosperity in Africa had it been interested in cooperation rather than confrontation.
Confrontation between neighboring countries has not led to peace and development in those countries. Hostilities and conflicts have not occurred on the dams built in the Middle East by neighboring countries that shared rivers for furthering economic development in their respective areas. Similarly, clashes and rows have not resulted in the finalization of the Palestinian issues. The “zero sum game” that Egypt is playing and the Arab League is supporting instinctively is hostile and inimical to Ethiopia. This Pan-Arabic approach is considered to be racist by many observers. It reduces the role of the African Union, which is a Pan-African organization, created to resist and fight colonialism and neocolonialism. There is an excess of substantiation to back this observation and outlook. Those countries that tried to minimize the role of the AU in settling disputes are essentially backed by the neocolonialists.
Nemesis in the Middle East: The archenemies of Ethiopia are primarily located in the Middle East. Primarily, these are Egypt and Sudan, which attempted to discourage, shrink, reduce or even diminish the capacity of Ethiopia to feed its own people and to remain shrouded with absolute poverty. To fulfill their objectives, these two countries had intended to diminish all kinds of support to Ethiopia. They attempted to weaken the role of the AU on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations that should have been concluded long time ago. They protracted the deadlock by referring this African affair to the USA and the WB. After failing in this attempt, they then intensified the issue by escalating it to the UN Security Council that referred the dispute back to the AU which is its right place.
The Arab League is now forced to tread on the same path that has failed it in the past. It is now strongly affirmed that the AU is the legitimate institution that should facilitate negotiations among Africans in conflict. There should be neither confusion nor digression on this role of AU.
Digression does not lead to settlement of issues and it only results in disputes. This is due to Egyptian and Sudanese as well as their superior’s deceptive strategy to force Ethiopia into submission and sign a water release agreement. This misleading and illusive arrangement is designed to bar Ethiopia from its legitimate and sovereign rights to harness its water resources. This is an “existential threat” for Ethiopia.
If the country is forced to forgo its sovereign rights to exploit its own natural resources for improving the living standard of the people, its future generation will be subjected to poverty amid rich natural resources. With diminished opportunities, the Ethiopian youths will be forced to leave their country in search of job opportunities abroad, particularly in the Middle East. Thousands of Ethiopian migrant workers in this zone, particularly in Saudi Arabia, are being treated like sub-humans in dirty and dark jails for months. Finally, they are ordered to go out of the Arab countries, without their personal belongings and accumulated unpaid wages. Others are stranded in war-torn Yemen, starving to death without any humanitarian aid.
Break the cycle of tragedy: The possible remedy to end the massive emigration of job seekers and human capital flight is to create favorable working conditions in Ethiopia. It is absolutely necessary to create favorable environment for investment in the country that creates jobs for the unemployed citizens. This would minimize or terminate emigration to the Arab countries or elsewhere in search of jobs. It unleashes the productivity of workers in the productive sectors of the economy. There is no doubt that the completion of the GERD will contribute to the economic development of the country. It is one of the remedies that break the cycle of economic tragedy in the country. It contributes to the environmental protection efforts in Africa thereby preventing the negative impacts of climate change.
Water is critical for an economic transformation of a developing country. It is reported that the Arab League has failed to appreciate or totally disregard that water is a natural resource that transforms the Ethiopian economy for the well-being of its poor people. Similarly, petroleum does contribute for the development in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Petroleum has broken the cycle of tragedy in those countries that are naturally endowed with it. In this respect, the Arab League is misled in its perception of the contribution of GERD in reducing poverty in Ethiopia. At the conclusion of their conference in Doha, the Arab Foreign Ministers representing the league incorporated Egypt’s misleading narrative.
Both Egypt and Sudan erroneously preached their Arab colleagues that they face threats from GERD. As Dr. Aklog put it, they inculcated in the minds of their colleagues that the water crisis these two Arab countries confront is “an integral part of Arab national security.” They wrongly asserted that Ethiopia stood against the interest of the Arab world. Ethiopia has never in its history stood against the Arab world and the international community. If the double aged approach of Egypt and Sudan is appealing to the powers to be, then the international community is failing not only Ethiopia, but also the entire Black Africa.
At the conclusion of the meeting of the Arab Foreign Ministers, a suggestion is made on the “United Arab Position” about the negotiations concerning GERD to reach a just settlement for all “concerned parties.” The right question raised is on what exactly is a “just settlement,” that penalizes Ethiopia and rewards Egypt and Sudan?
It is reported that most of the issues of the GERD have been resolved. However, the bone of contention has been the mechanism to deal with future disagreements over river water uses and how it should be allocated during droughts. Studies indicate that Egypt has no shortage of water, but lack of policy and sense of cooperation for sharing it. It stores billions of cubic meters of surface water from the Nile, using the High Aswan Dam, a multi-year storage scheme. Egypt has also billions of cubic meters of reserve water for drought years. A think-tank of Ethiopian scientists and experts indicated that the High Aswan Dam is full to the brim. They also reveal that Egypt has a share of the ground water stored in the Nubian aquifer.
The ground water is part of a huge aquifer where Libya created a huge artificial river. It is estimated that if Egypt uses only the first 100-meter thickness, it can produce fresh water, which increase its current water storage for several hundreds of years. In addition, Egypt has a sea coastline length of about 1800 miles with opportunities for desalinization and increasing future availability of water. Over the last decade, the cost of desalination technology has become very low. Studies confirm that Egypt wastes excessive water through thousands of Km of extensive open canal irrigation systems and crops that consume excessive water. Egypt produces water consuming rice, sugarcane and other cane products. Reports reveal that it exports food. Studies also show that wasted water could have been saved by introducing water-saving agricultural practices.
Studies reveal that Ethiopia does not have similar options. In reality, Egypt supported and continues to assist proxy wars against Ethiopia. To add insult to injury, Ethiopia lost its seacoast. As Dr. Aklog revealed, Egypt pressured the WB and the ADB not to lend for hydroelectric or irrigation dam projects in Ethiopia. The total cost of such an intrigue on Ethiopia runs into billions of dollars. Ethiopia is fully entitled to compensation for such massive loss. As a black African country, Ethiopia is struggling to partly escape poverty through GERD, but delaying its completion intensifies immense pauperization and malnutrition among its people. Therefore, its completion is nothing but a matter of survival.
Conclusion: The potential contribution of GERD includes raising electricity coverage to the majority of the Ethiopian population, boosting GDP and annual net revenue in Billions of dollars. The implication of delay in the completion of the dam is therefore very glaring. Delaying the dam implies that Egypt is absolutely liable and condemned for its actions that impoverish the Ethiopian people. Egypt’s hegemony over the Nile is not conventional. It is only a call for disaster, the nature of which seems blurred and unpredictable. Egypt’s supporters, particularly the Arab League, must be wary, cautious and suspicious of their own moral standing in extending blind support to Egypt. Its action of referring to irrelevant colonial agreements is indicative of submission to neocolonial policy of subduing independent African countries. This is tantamount to slavery in the 21st century. Kept in modern slavery, Africa cannot develop.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
The Ethiopian Herald August 29/2021
