BY DARGIE KAHSAY
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, has released its 2021 climate report under the topic “Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis.”
More than 234 authors have participated in the assessment and the report has provided the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science and multiple lines of evidences, according to IPCC.
The latest IPCC report released on Monday noted that Scientists are observing rapid changes in the Earth’s climate in every region and across the whole climate system. It reported that climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying. The world is also becoming hotter and at rapid rate than previously forecasted one.
According to the report, the earth has already warmed by 1.1 degree Celsius since the 19th century. Within the next two decades, the Earth is predicted to be warming by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels which is virtually inevitable leading to more frequent heat waves, droughts and extreme weather, the report pointed out.
The report warned that new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the next decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5 degree Celsius or even 2 degree Celsius will be beyond reach.
Changes in the Earth’s climate are in every region and across the whole climate system, the report underlined adding many of the changes observed in the climate are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some of the changes already set in motion such as continued sea level rise are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years, IPCC’s press release on the report stated.
For the report, it could take 20 to 30 years to see global temperatures stabilize, though strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming, the report shows.
The report projects that in the coming decades’ climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2 degree Celsius of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, it added.
According to IPCC’s statement the change is not only about temperature, climate change is bringing multiple changes in different regions which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snows and ice, coastal areas and oceans, it noted. Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, affecting rainfall patterns, amplify permafrost thawing and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic Sea ice, IPCC announced.
The report also underlined that following these rapid changes that the Earth is experiencing, extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century. Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heat waves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
Not only that, the climate change may also amplify cities temperature, flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities, the report noted. Unless immediate, rapid and large-scale action is taken to reduce emissions, the report says, the average global temperature is likely to reach or cross the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold within 20 years.
Hence, the report underlined, global warming is dangerously increasing and reached the turning point to take serious and timely actions before it becomes out of control. It warned that the world is already certain to face further climate disruptions from decades, if not centuries, to come, Reuters reported citing the report. Rapid action to cut greenhouse gas emissions could limit some impacts, but others are now locked in.
The report reiterated that there is hope that major policy shifts could halt the warming at the 1.5-degree level, although some impacts are likely irreversible at this point, including the melting of Arctic sea ice and ocean acidification. If global leaders do not take immediate actions, catastrophic warming of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels could happen, the report stated adding, making heat waves that used to occurs every 50 years annual events.
Co-chairman of the IPCC Working Group, Valerie Masson-Delmott during a webinar press organized to publicize the report on Monday said that ′′ It has been clear for decades that the climate of the Earth has been changing and the role of human impact on the climate system is undeniable,” adding, “the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of the human influence on the climate system is undisputed.”
“This report is a reality check,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte noted adding that “We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare.”
UN Environment Program Executive Director, Inger Andersen also said during the press conference that “IPCC have been telling the world for over three decades of the dangers of allowing the planet to warm. The world listened, but it didn’t hear and act. As a result, climate change is a problem that is worsening now” Anderson underlined that the IPCC report indicated us “where we are and where we could go, unless timely actions are taken.”
“Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Panmao Zhai. “Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with additional warming,” Zhai noted.
Speaking to Reuters, Environment and Climate Change activist Greta Thunberg called on the public and media to put “massive” pressure on governments to act timely as the COP26, the global climate conference, is scheduled to be held within the coming three months in Glasgow.
“I hope that this can be a wakeup call, in every possible way” Thunberg stated. “When these extreme weather events are happening, many say, what will it take for people in power to start acting? What are they waiting for? And it will take many things, but especially, it will take massive pressure from the public and massive pressure from the media,” she said.
“As it is now, nothing is changing. The only thing that’s changing is the climate,” she stressed.
Following the release of the IPCC report, scientists and environmental activities are calling for major policy shifts to halt the plant’s rapid and widespread global warming. The people across the globe are eagerly waiting for the upcoming COP26 session as the world needs immediate and timely actions to save the world from the effects of the rapid climate change.
The Ethiopian Herald August 11/2021
