Sudan is too fragile to mediate strong Ethiopia

 BY ADDISALEM MULAT

In an act of escalating tension with Ethiopia, Sudan last Sunday recalled its ambassador in Ethiopia after the Ethiopian government said Khartoum is not fit to mediate Ethiopia’s internal issue. Ethiopia’s stand holds a solid truth in fact. When the Ethiopian National Defense Forces left the Ethio-Sudan border to play a part in the law enforcement operations in Tigray state, Sudan’s armed forces took control of the area and embarked on displacing and looting Ethiopians.

The government of Ethiopia has been leaving no stone unturned to resolve the issue peacefully and diplomatically, Sudan has rather been taking measures that upped the ante.

Even worse, Khartoum has been engaged in blame shifting and playing a victim card to mislead the international community. Sudan has done nothing to deescalate the tension between the two nations except adding fuel to the fire.

The Sudanese army has been turning the lives of Ethiopians residing in the area into a living hell by setting their houses on fire and destroying their livelihood. Against this backdrop, Ethiopia made every possible effort to turn the tide and resolve the matter peacefully.

Besides its hawkish moves in the Ethio- Sudan border, Khartoum has been serving as an agent of a third party to pose a setback in the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Particularly, Sudan and Egypt have been trying to stonewall the second filling of GERD by internationalizing and politicizing the matter. Sudan is continuing to play a negative role in the border, GERD and law enforcement operations. On Sunday, it is reported that the country had recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia frustrated by the stance of Ethiopian officials whom it said were refusing Sudan’s offer to arbitrate in the ongoing battle in the northern part of Ethiopia.

According to Reuters as a statement from the foreign ministry read Ethiopia will improve its position if it considered what Sudan could do.

Hamdok’s offer came within the framework of his presidency of IGAD, a grouping that includes Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, Sudan, Uganda and Somalia, the statement said.

Spokesperson for the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Minister did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Sudan recalling its ambassador.

Since time immemorial Ethiopia and Sudan have got a very long-standing relationship. Ethiopia’s diplomacy journey towards Sudan is one and the same. In the olden days, Sudan was under shack of the colonial rule. On top of that, as Sudan by its very nature has not ever formulated a stable government, they fail to meet the demands of its people from time to time.

I would even go as far as to say, in the present climate, Sudan’s policy is under the influence of Egypt. Nowadays, the government of Sudan is divided among the civilian government, the military wing, and a breakaway group from the military.

In a similar manner, Egypt is doing its level best to keep its interest and make Sudan a destabilized nation. I would venture to say, the military wing is almost led fully by Egypt on the grounds that they get every help from the latter. Furthermore, the civil government is not that strong. If truth be told, the people of Sudan do not have confidence in their government.

Sudan has a fragile government let alone mediating Ethiopia. It is not in the position to govern itself as it should be. Its economy is also collapsed. It is no hyperbole to say, they cannot even provide their people with basic needs. Even worse, Sudan is turning out to be a battleground of a proxy war.

Ethiopia is by far better than Sudan in many aspects. Ethiopia has played a major role in bringing Sudan to the right track at the time the country was moving into uncharted territory. Ethiopia did everything it could to get to the bottom of the problem. But at this point in time, Sudan is getting off track and running against the interest of Ethiopia over and over again.

Reacting to Sudan’s decision, Endale Nigussie, lecture at the school of diplomacy and international relations of Civil Service University said that in the first place, Ethiopia is not seeking third party mediation. It is able to resolve its internal issue on its own. Sudan is not fit enough to mediate Ethiopia and its government is fragile.

“Ethiopia can manage its internal affairs on its own with no trouble. Ethiopia does not need the support of other countries given that it is a self-sufficient country.”

Back in the day, the terrorist TPLF group had been given quite a lot of chances to come to the negotiation table and resolve the ongoing problem in an orderly manner. However, the intended target could not be achieved due to the terrorist reluctance. The only way to settle the score against the group is through using force, he added.

Speaking of the Ethio-Sudan dispute, Endale noted that Ethiopia is heading in the right direction. Ethiopia has not breached the sovereignty of Sudan and its people. Though Sudan has taken control of Ethiopia’s land by force, Ethiopia gave prominence to getting to the bottom of the problem in a peaceful manner.

If Sudan continues its belligerent acts, it will get itself dissolved. On the other hand, Ethiopia will prevail as it is a peace-loving country. It is Sudan not Ethiopia that needs the support of other countries. If Sudan makes an effort to get off the track it will collapse totally.

It is to be recalled that Ethiopian government has rejected Sudan’s request for mediation with regard to the Tigray situation. Addressing the issue last Thursday, Press Secretary of the Office of Prime Minister, Billene Seyoum, dismissed the possibility of Sudan mediating on the conflict in the northern region of Tigray.

She described the relationship with Khartoum as “a little bit tricky” and said trust should be the basis of any mediation but had “eroded” especially following the “Sudanese army incursion into Ethiopian territory.”

“The relationship with Sudan at this point is a little bit tricky because the level of trust with some leaders has already been eroded particularly with the Sudanese army incursion into Ethiopian territory,” Billene said.

“Trust is the basis of any negotiation, any mediation as well, so that element needs to be thoroughly addressed before Sudan could be entertained as a credible party in terms of facilitating such kind of negotiations, Billene said adding that Sudan must first withdraw its troops from Ethiopian territories before playing any negotiation role.

Tensions along Ethio-Sudan border broke out in December last year, one month after the outbreak of conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region after Sudan forces invaded Ethiopian territory.

The Ethiopian Herald August 11/2021

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