(Part I)
BY STAFF REPORTER
Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam teaches political science at California State University, San Bernardino. His teaching areas include American constitutional law, civil rights law, judicial process, American and California state governments, and African politics. He has published two volumes on American constitutional law, including American Constitutional Law: Structures and Process (1994) and American Constitutional Law: Civil Liberties and Civil Rights (1998). He is the Senior Editor of the International Journal of Ethiopian Studies, a leading scholarly journal on Ethiopia.
Off late , Al Mariam has made a brief stay with Addis Zemen newspaper and discussed issues related to the undue external pressure being made against Ethiopia especially by US and EU. Excerpts:
Could you tell us about the ongoing external pressures on Ethiopia?
Ethiopia is facing brazen and outrageous pressure by the United States and the European Union over its law enforcement actions in the Tigray region. For the past eight months, following the attack of the Ethiopian Northern Command by the terrorist group Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the U.S. and E.U. have been threatening, bullying and arm-twisting the Ethiopian Government to “dialogue” and “negotiate” with the terrorist TPLF.
The U.S. and E.U.’s blind commitment to the TPLF is not just bizarre but downright a foreign policy of lunacy.
There are several factors that explain U.S.-E.U. pressure on Ethiopia on behalf of the TPLF terrorist group. First, the U.S. Government’s foreign policy in Ethiopia has been hijacked by Susan Rice, Biden’s Domestic Policy Advisor. I find it difficult to say “U.S. foreign policy in Ethiopia.” It is Susan Rice’s policy in Ethiopia. Rice has a long and shady past with the TPLF. Beginning in the early 1990s. Rice, along with Gayle Smith, currently the Coordinator for Global COVID Response and Health Security at the U.S. Department of State, have been TPLF agents in the U.S. Government. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in the Obama administration worked for Rice. The unholy trinity believe they can restore the TPLF terrorists to power by applying economic sanctions, cornering Ethiopia in diplomatic isolation and tarnishing Ethiopia’s image in a global media demonization campaign.
Second, the U.S. and the E.U. have concluded that their best opportunity to stop and reverse “China’s takeover of Africa” is by making Ethiopia China’s graveyard. They believe they can take China out of Africa in one fell swoop if they can pressure the Ethiopian Government to kick out the Chinese or significantly reduce their presence and investments in Ethiopia. The current government will not submit to such pressure. To accomplish this, the Biden administration needs a comprador regime, a lackey regime that will ask, “How high?” when commanded to jump. The TPLF has been a lackey regime doing the dirty work of the Obama and Biden’s (Obama II) administration.
Third, the U.S. and E.U. have concluded that the Government of PM Abiy Ahmed is too nationalistic and will not submit to their neocolonial masterplan for Africa. A defiant, self-confident and independent Ethiopia sets the wrong example for the rest of Africa. The economic, political, diplomatic, etc. pressure is intended to break the will and spirit of the Ethiopian people and keep them in a state of neocolonial servility.
Fourth, there is a solid streak of white supremacy in the U.S.-E.U pressure on Ethiopia. When you listen to the public statements and tweets of U.S. and E.U. policy makers, it is stunning how disdainful of Ethiopian sovereignty and dignity they are. Their public statements laden with threats of sanctions, aid cutoff, demands for “unfettered humanitarian access”, “removal of Eritrean and Amhara forces from Tigray”, etc. clearly show their neocolonial mindset. Who are they to make such demands? What is truly funny is the fact that the kinds of demands the Biden Administration is making on Ethiopia, it cannot make on any American state. For instance, the Biden administration cannot order the states to adopt Covid-19 face mask policy because the states as sovereign powers have their own police powers to legislate on their own health and public safety issues. Yet, the Biden Administration has the audacity to command a sovereign country ten thousand miles away how to run its business, run its elections, enforce its own laws and conduct its foreign policy. Such is the audacity and hubris of the Rice-Blinken-Sullivan policy in Ethiopia.
As you accurately predicted, the United States has imposed a travel ban on Ethiopian officials. What do you think the U.S. will do in follow up to the travel ban?
The Biden administration has imposed visa sanctions on unspecified and unnamed Ethiopian officials. They have decided to keep their names secret. They could have named and shamed them by making their names public but have chosen not to do so. That indicates bad faith on the part of the Biden administration. The whole object of sanctions is to expose the bad guys engaged in atrocities and human rights violations. I would argue the U.S. kept the names secret because there is little or no substantial evidence to support their allegations of wrongdoing. Yet, absurdly, the Biden administration insists the Ethiopian Government prosecute these ghost and nameless human rights violators. So, the U.S. is not genuinely interested in human rights or in bringing to justice human rights violators. The U.S. wants to weaponize allegations of human rights abuses to demonize Ethiopia and blacken Ethiopia’s international image.
The visa sanctions were imposed as a trial balloon. It is supposed to be the shot across the bow, the tip of the iceberg of sanctions to be unleashed. The Biden administration wanted to see what kind of reaction will happen in Ethiopia. Will the Ethiopian people support it? Will they be scared of what the U.S and E.U. could do? Will they react negatively against the Ethiopian Government fearing the sanctions wrath of America? Could they influence the scheduled elections by announcing sanctions in advance?
The visa sanctions went down like a lead balloon. It made Ethiopians angry, defiant and united. The visa sanction travel ban crystallized in the minds of ordinary Ethiopians the Biden administration is the enemy of the Ethiopia people.
The Biden administration has threatened all sorts of escalating economic, diplomatic and political sanctions. It was recently revealed that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been pressured by the U.S. to deny Ethiopia loans and grants. The U.S. is working in concert with the E.U. to undertake similar measures with European financial institutions. The U.S. has tried to get the U.N. Security Council to sanction Ethiopia over the Tigray issue just like it did to Eritrea in 2009 and the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam working in concert with Egypt. China, Russia and India, among others, sneered at the very idea of Security Council sanctions because the Tigray issue is an internal matter and the GERD issue presents no threat to international peace. The U.S. and E.U. have also conspired to delegitimize the June 21, 2021 general election. The European Union imposed its own sanctions by refusing to disburse $107 million in “budget support”. The U.S. also withheld some $300 million in security and “development aid” to Ethiopia.
The U.S. will use everything in its arsenal of sanctions to destabilize the Ethiopian economy, society and political process to break Ethiopia’s back and bring it to its knees. I expect the U.S. working in concert with the E.U. will use its power to block/force international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to deny new loans, balance of payments, etc and renege on old ones. They will take measures to ban private financing of trade and investment in Ethiopia. The U.S. is already doing that with the recent Vodafone telecommunications licensing deal. They will impose restrictions on international transport, personal travel, and communication. I expect they will take measures to deny access to U.S. and E.U. financial markets, foreign direct investment and banking systems. They will impose bans on trade promotion activities and impose tariffs. I expect they will disrupt access to U.S. and European Union-based financing institutions to create shortages in the availability of credit for Ethiopian Government and firms. They will freeze any U.S. assets of Ethiopian businesses and officials. They will take measures to deny export subsidies and financial assistance to businesses, low interest loans, subsidized loan guarantees, or project insurance available from the Export-Import Bank, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, and the Commodity Credit. They will pressure African countries to cutoff trade and diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
In short, I expect the U.S. and E.U. will declare an all out economic, diplomatic and political war on Ethiopia. With all humility, I must say that my record of accurate predictions is quite high and you will see these predictions unfold one by one in the foreseeable future.
Let me also make another prediction. Just as the sun will rise tomorrow, the U.S. and E.U. will fail in their conspiracy to destroy Ethiopia. The economic, political and diplomatic swords they raise against Ethiopia shall pierce their own hearts.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the Diaspora should be prepared for this as we will reduce the number of embassies as the Diaspora community is doing well in diplomacy. How do you view this issue?
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently told parliament that the country simply could not afford nor does it need the five dozen plus embassies and consulates it has throughout the world. I regard that announcement as part of the dynamic and systematic reform process taking place in Ethiopia. I believe the decision is based on a careful analysis of the performance, efficiency and financial viability of having such a large diplomatic corps. I would say it is a decision based on simple cost-benefit analysis. They looked at the benefits and rewards of having so many embassies and consular offices and subtracted the total cost of maintaining them. They came to the conclusion they were not getting the bang for their buck.
I believe Ethiopia needs, to speak idiomatically, a lean and mean diplomatic corps. That means an efficient and proactive diplomatic corps that get things done and not wait passively and react timidly when things happen. Ethiopia needs competent and dynamic diplomats who are able to engage not only in traditional diplomacy but also in public diplomacy reaching out to the public in their respective countries and mobilization of the Ethiopian diaspora.
Frankly speaking, I can tell you that many in the Ethiopian diaspora feel Ethiopian embassies have become the last stronghold of the terrorist TPLF junta. They believe TPLF moles in the embassies and consulates undermine Ethiopian diplomatic efforts and obstruct efficient services to diasporans. I do not know how true that is but perception is reality and that is how the vast majority of diasporans feel about the Ethiopian diplomatic corps.
The Prime Minister said Ethiopia has available a batch of trained foreign service officers ready to take over and set a new path for Ethiopian diplomacy. I very much welcome that because the New Ethiopia needs new diplomacy that is proactive, focused and confident, proud and creative and constantly updating itself with new data and ready to respond vigorously to any challenges and opportunities.
I understand getting such personnel up to speed will have its challenges. But it is no different than the other reform challenges facing the country. I say, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”
The Prime Minister is spot on in calling to action the Ethiopian diaspora to help out with Ethiopia’s international public diplomacy. By public diplomacy I specifically mean to suggest a cooperative effort between the Government of Ethiopia and diasporans to represent Ethiopia in the best light possible internationally. It is necessary to create institutional mechanisms for diasporans to work together with the Ethiopian Government to directly or indirectly influence public opinion, particularly elite public opinion, in particular countries. Such public diplomacy could take many forms. But the principal task of this public diplomacy is to explain the policies of the Ethiopian Government to foreign publics and improve Ethiopia’s international image and by influencing foreign governments by mobilizing their citizens. It could be grassroots community-based activities or organized efforts such as lobbying. I hope public diplomacy will get heightened attention with the new corps of replacement diplomats.
I regret to say diaspora Ethiopians in this regard have failed. Our failure can be seen starkly juxtaposed to the TPLF’s public diplomacy based on lies, damned lies and disinformation. Of course, they are hard to beat. After all, the “LF” in TPLF stands for Lie Factory. Hardly a day goes by without Reuters, AP, NY Times or the other Western press-titutes waxing poetic on the victories of the TPLF terrorists or damning the Ethiopian Government for “weaponizing famine”, “atrocities”, “human rights abuses”, etc. There is mighty little information in the Western media about the Ethiopian Government’s massive relief efforts (70 percent of all relief is provided by the government, not the carping Western governments” or democratization efforts. I believe Ethiopian diaspora could be ramped up and diaspora Ethiopian intellectuals must commit to engage in public diplomacy individually and collectively.
It is necessary to define and promote a focused agenda in the public diplomacy effort. In the Ethiopian diaspora, we need to create an “Ethiopia Anti-defamation League.” The League’s principal purpose will be to respond to any individual or institution engaged in malicious defamation and spread of lies and disinformation on Ethiopia. For instance, one of the first tasks of the League could be to catalogue media disinformation on Ethiopia, analyze it and use it in public diplomacy by exposing fake news.
We need to create a medium and a website where diaspora Ethiopians could access information and analysis to wage a principled, truth-based offensive and defense info wars.
We need to liaise with Ethiopian Government institutions to get updated information on policies, actions and activities. We need to undertake grassroots mobilization to include all diaspora Ethiopians regardless of their station in life. I do not believe in the idea that elites can only make a difference.
There are those who say that the West will continue to pressure the Ethiopian government unless it finds answers to these questions, saying that there are questions behind the “negotiate and leave the conflict area.” If you share the idea, what are the questions behind it?
I reject any suggestion that undermines Ethiopian sovereignty. Period. The U.S. and E.U. insistence on so-called inclusive talks is just a ploy to get the TPLF’s foot in the door so that they can be restored to power and continue business as usual. The U.S. and E.U. are either disingenuous or harbor so much contempt they believes they can boss around Ethiopians and their government. The U.S.-E.U. are insisting the Ethiopian Government should negotiate with terrorists the U.S. had once itself had declared a terrorist group. It was in June 2014 the U.S. delisted the TPLF as a terrorist group. Regardless, nearly all of the TPLF terrorist leaders have been arrested or killed in battle. Does the U.S.-E.U. expect the Ethiopian Government to negotiate with the TPLF dead or the TPLF dreg zombies in the diaspora? It is all a game by the U.S-E.U. to demonize and pressure Ethiopia.
The fact of the matter is that the U.S and E.U. are out of options. Whatever pressure they apply on Ethiopia is not producing the desired result, which is the ultimate restoration of the TPLF to power. They will continue to do the same thing over and over expecting a different result. That is called crazy. They have done it to Iran for over 40 years and Venezuela for over 15 years. The way I see it, the U.S. and E.U. can do whatever they want. But Ethiopians must stand united and strong against any pressure because by submitting they will have condemned themselves to neocolonial slavery. I am not worried. When the European Powers scrambled to colonize Africa at the end of the Nineteenth century, Ethiopia remained the only independent country in Africa. Ethiopia became the graveyard of European colonialism when it defeated the mighty colonial Italian army in 1896 and its fascist army in 1942. I shall predict Ethiopia will be the graveyard of the 21st century U.S-E.U. neocolonialism.
The Egyptian-concocted controversy over the GERD has several dimensions. First, El-Sisi tried to get political mileage from it to increase his popularity and acceptance among Egyptians. He thought his belligerent stance on the GERD could help unite the Egyptian people and generate support for him as a modern reincarnation of Gemal Abdel Nasser. He overplayed his hand and now he is stuck with his own hype unable to deliver on his saber-rattling threats.
Second, El-Sisi wanted Uncle Sam U.S.A. to use its foreign aid stick to bring Ethiopia to its knees. The U.S. has bought and sold Egypt using its multi-billion dollar military and economic aid. The U.S. wants a weak and unstable Egypt in the Middle East to control the region but not at the cost of a strong and self-sufficient Ethiopia. So, if it has to make a choice between Egypt and Ethiopia, the U.S. will choose Egypt hands down on the GERD. That was the conspiracy between Egypt and the Trump administration during the so-called Washington talks that started in November 2020. The U.S and Egypt wrote up an agreement that would literally sell Ethiopia down the Nile River. But Ethiopia stood its ground and nothing came out of it despite Trump’s threats Egypt will bomb the dam.
Third, the U.S. does not want an ascendant Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa region. A strong and vibrant Ethiopia will no doubt eclipse Egypt and set an example of independence for the rest of black Africa. In other words, an economically and politically strong Ethiopia will make Ethiopia a bulwark against Western neocolonialism. If Africans can see Ethiopia standing on her own two feet, no longer a beggar nation, that could be the beginning of Africa’s true liberation after six decades of “independence”.
The U.S., Egypt and Sudan know the GERD will benefit not only Ethiopia but also the region. But the production of hydropower will enable Ethiopia to acquire enormous regional political power as well. That is the dilemma Egypt, Sudan and the U.S. face. No doubt, the GERD will be completed and will be the driving engine for Ethiopia’s economic development. But the three countries will not rest for one second to undermine Ethiopia.
Part II of this interview will continue Saturday
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD AUGUST 3/2021
