Key economic, ecological and demographic trends converge to shape Ethiopia and its relationship with the rest of the world. A new politics is emerging in the twenty-first century around the water–food–energy nexus, which is central to the country’s relevance in the global economy. On the one hand, as H. Verhoeven put it, Malthusian anxieties proliferate the country, as pessimists link population growth and growing water scarcity to policy failure and “water wars”. On the other hand, entrepreneurs, sovereign wealth funds and speculators consider the country’s potential in water resources, energy production and food output as one of the “untapped” opportunities for the global economy.
Ethiopia is on the brink of an agro-industrial transformation. Economists have examined how economic actors are not merely responding to economic and environmental changes but also to politics of water, food and energy security. Many of them seize the opportunities to redefine the “new” national politics, relationship with local communities and ties with external players, regionally and globally. Ethiopia’s hydro-agricultural projects help to identify the most important determinants of the new politics at the national, local and international level. The politics of water security and energy development simultaneously puts Ethiopia and its populations on the alert, as they grapple with huge challenges.
There are several ways of thinking about water security. After independence, the African countries, including Ethiopia, have reached a crossroads. The outcomes of the convergence of several crucial developments in the early twenty-first century are deeply unsure. But the decisions that will be taken in the coming years will “determine” how different the region’s future will be from the past economic disillusionment, vicious internal politics and dependence on external forces. Almost all of these game-changing trends including population growth, shifts in global economic power, climate change, the emergence of an African consumer class and new state-building agendas are directly linked to the use of water. In the process, effective water resources management can promote economic growth.
The role of water in addressing issues of human rights and equity in accessing it become crucial. Water can help to define Ethiopia’s role in the regional economy. African countries will relate to each other in the age of global warming and water use. They define the ways political power will be exercised in the future based on water resources. The integral concerns over water and food security are related to the legitimacy of African governments. They become important in devising strategies to maintain hegemony. The central argument is that as worries over water scarcity, rising food prices and the multiplier impacts of climate change are mounting, a new politics is emerging around the water–food–energy nexus in Africa, including Ethiopia.
Studies highlight the origins of risks of water resources and show how they intersect at local, national and regional levels. The African societies will have to determine what water-related risks they find tolerable. This is highly complex and simultaneously poses dangers and opportunities to the African regional states. Several issues related to Africa’s future are competing for political and academic importance. These depend on specific principles that emphasize certain trends. They offer alternative policy guidance and prescriptions. They help identify what will happen with African water resources as a major determinant of the future of the African region.
Analysis of water is rooted in a tradition of underscoring the consequences of the interplay between demography, economic development and environmental change. It is strongly argued that nowhere is population growth and degradation of habitats occurring “as fast as” in the Horn of Africa. The number of extreme droughts and flash floods is rising and population doubles every 30 years. This implies that an additional 150 million mouths will have to be fed in a region already notorious for large-scale malnutrition and erratic water management policies. As pointed out by H. Verhoeven, food insecurity is linked to the wider discontent, restlessness, dissatisfaction and upsurge in disgruntlement in African cities. These include the failure of regimes to respond effectively to skyrocketing food prices and youth unemployment in the African region.
Water is just a key to food production in the agricultural sector. It is also increasingly linked to regional energy security. Less than one-third of the people of the Horn of Africa are connected to the electrical grid. This is major impediment to the welfare of individuals and to macroeconomic development. Soaring demand puts unprecedented pressures on water resources. Pessimists predict that the frequency and intensity of water related conflicts are rising, particularly as African regional climate change worsens. Amidst fears of instability, states are racing to capture critical resources through a zero-sum conceptualization of water security, part of a “new scramble” for Africa.
The global economy is undergoing changes, with power shifting to several rising powers such as China. As investment, production and consumption in these centers reshape commodity prices and commercial networks, this increases “anxiety” about securing vital resources. The other dominant discourse, by contrast, is that the demographic and economic shifts provide the building blocks for a new optimism. It is hoped that Africa will no longer be a victim of population pressure as there is an opportunity for new patterns of international economic integration. It is now a critical moment for Africa, including Ethiopia, to transform into an agro-industrial region.
With its natural resources and water development, Ethiopia has an optimistic future with its gross domestic product (GDP) now on the rise and returns on foreign direct investment (FDI) higher than that of the previous period. With domestic peace, Ethiopia is likely to join the ranks of a new middle class in less than a decade. A global attention for its resources is becoming attractive news to be welcomed, not to be feared. The case for optimism is rooted in identifying a win–win situation in an all-inclusive, holistic and complete development. This creates an opportunity for productive water flows and energy security in Ethiopia.
Historically, Ethiopia has not been able to develop and use its water resources for irrigation and power generation. The country has currently built several dams to increase its energy supply and to improve irrigated agriculture. In the past decade, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have concluded several agreements with African governments in the water–food–energy nexus, spearheaded by a wave of dam-building and investment in capital-intensive agriculture. These multibillion-dollar developments might reshape Africa, including Ethiopia, more dramatically than traditional oil and other investments.
Studies offer a deeper and historically informed understanding of the changing situations and “interests” that are impacting on Ethiopia from within and from without. The politics of water security has put the country in the African regional political and economic arena. By drawing on a detailed study of Ethiopia’s politics of water security and energy development, H. Verhoeven has demonstrated how Ethiopia has been responding not only to demographic factors but also to economic and environmental changes. It has been able to actively seize on the opportunities presented by technocratic studies to redefine its politics, relationship with local communities and ties with neighbors, rivals and potential partners.
It is further argued that water security is not predominantly determined only by exogenous factors but also by endogenous ones such as the strategies and calculations of political elites. This approach to water security is rooted in the tradition of political environment, which is critical of sustainable development. There are questions related to water security such as who is “water secure” and who is not? Which risks are deemed tolerable for certain population groups and not for others? And how do perceptions of security and risk change over time? Political science highlights that the societal “values” that focus on water security and risk are not static, but dynamic.
The outcomes of violent struggles over water resources amplify the voices of some and silence those of others. It causes the politicization of debates around water. It helps to understand how security and risk are defined by those who have the power to do so in water related affairs. The struggle around water values, definitions and distributions often play out differently at different levels. Since there are “several parties” and riparian countries, it should not be analyzed in isolation. It is the interaction between these parties that is critical for understanding change and continuity regarding water development, sharing and uses. There may be, however, inevitable inconsistencies and contradictions in the politics of water.
Studies draw from several disciplines to build a multifaceted picture of water security and risk. They take into account the complexity and subjectivity of environmental problems such as scarcity of water, which are real. Social and natural sciences are taken seriously in order to articulate people’s understandings and social constructions of water with technical inputs. Researchers devise qualitative techniques such as interviews and field observation over an extended period of time. Information is systematically triangulated with primary documents, secondary literature and biophysical information with an eye to “improve” the validity of the claims made by interested groups.
Water security may imply a relentless, persistent and unyielding struggle between all contenders who claim priority over its mode of utilization. Some countries use it for agriculture, irrigation, power generation and tourist attraction. Analysis on water security, risk and energy development in Ethiopia involve knowledge creation, problem diagnosis and policy implementation. The country has repeatedly expressed its intent on the equitable use of cross-boundary rivers that originate from within its boundary. Ethiopia supports development on the Nile River by riparian countries to improve the standard of living of their people.
The development objective of GERD is to feed the Ethiopian poor that are hunger stricken in the land of plenty. The poor Ethiopian women incessantly collect fuel wood from the surrounding forests just to feed their children and other family members. They rise very early in the morning, facing the danger of threats from hyenas and other beasts scavenging in the forests on the hills. It is the irony of nature that these poor women search for firewood, tinder, brushwood, twigs and branches of trees for fuel and kindling. They could not use electricity that may be generated from harnessing rivulets and rivers that flow through their villages to drain into the Nile River. Ethiopia’s water may one day be harnessed to reduce the hardships of these poor women.
Thank you.
BY GETACHEW MINAS
The Ethiopian Herald 29 July 2021
