BY ZERIHUN MEGERSA JIMA
Charge D’ Affairs of Ethiopian Embassy in the State of Eritrea, Asmara
PART TWO
On Part One of this article, I have tried to shade light on Ethiopia’s consistent positions regarding GERD; indicating its transparent approaches starting from the inception of the project in a bid to build confidence with the two downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt. In this regard, Ethiopia’s initiative on establishing a trilateral platform to discuss on issues of concern, availing necessary technical studies and data of the project, committing to exchange necessary information on the filling of the dam, as well as continuing the decade long negotiations based on genuine approach, shows the crystal clear consistency of Ethiopia.
On the other side, Part one of this article also widely covered Egypt’s fickle and inconsistent positions over the past ten years of GERD negotiations. These fickle positions of Egypt were described as, Israelization and Turkization of the dam, a request of bilateral negotiation excluding Sudan, endless war mongering’s threatening Ethiopia, Politicizing, securitizing and internationalizing the dam and Egypt’s tendency of ignoring the Declaration of Principles agreement (DoP).
On this Part Two and final section of my article, I would try to focus on the remaining inconsistencies of Egypt namely; its request to jointly administer the dam, questioning the dam safety, turning from trilateral negotiation to third party led negotiation, opting out of the African Union led negotiation to a Quartet led mediation, resorting to UN Security Council and to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
In addition to this, the article would try to briefly touch on the current level of the dam negotiation and finally forward recommendations on the way forward to reach at amicable solution on the GERD negotiation among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt in particular, as well as on sustainable solutions for water issues arising on Nile water in general.
1. Egypt’s request to jointly administer GERD with Ethiopia
During the early stage of GERD construction, Egyptians have been requesting to jointly administer the project with Ethiopia, setting a reason “to build confidence”. Especially Egypt’s officials of Interim Government period commented that, joint administration of the dam will be an option for solutions of arising disputes. For this request, Ethiopian officials immediately rejected it arguing that, the sole ownership of the project is the entire Ethiopian people and no Ethiopian wants to sell his/her sovereignty. It’s also quite clear that Egyptians will not accept any other countries’ request to jointly administer Aswan or Toshika dam, and the same is true for GERD.
2. Egypt questioning the “dam safety”
Egyptian officials and “analysts” have been frequently expressing their worries on the “dam safety” of GERD. Their claim is sometimes attached to the location of the dam saying “it’s being built in a place endangered by eruption of earthquake”. The other time, they claim that “the quality of the construction is below standard and therefore it may collapse”. Egyptians were previously expressing their concern for themselves only. But now, after they managed to get Sudan on their side, they also started to express their concern for Sudan as if they care more for Sudanese people. Most recently, the Irrigation Minister of Egypt, Mohammed Abdel Aaty said on his interview, as reported on Middle East News Agency (MENA) on July 2, 2020 that, “Sudan is very concerned about the safety of its dams and about the effect the Renaissance Dam. The effect of the Renaissance Dam worries Sudan in two case; the first is the collapse, this is considered a complete devastation of Sudan…and more alarmingly it will endanger the lives of almost 150 million Egyptian and Sudanese citizens….” All the above claims, whether “concerns” on the possibility of eruption of earthquake at the dam site or the quality of the dam construction, are false claims that doesn’t hold water. Let alone GERD, which is being built in 21st century with a modernized design, advanced technical and material quality as well as constructed by well acknowledged international companies like that of the Italian Salini construction, Aswan dam which was built in 1960’s with less technology has not yet raised concerns. Therefore, this dam safety claims are meaningless other than a continuation of Egypt’s propaganda on GERD.
3. Turning from bilateral negotiation to third party led negotiation
The trilateral negotiation undertaken between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, which resulted in the signing of Declaration of Principles agreement (DoP) in 2015, seems didn’t bring a result Egypt wanted. Egypt felt that, the trilateral negotiation will not lead to a point that will manipulate Ethiopia. In this sense, it has been pushing for third party led negotiation whereby it could be able to mislead the third party, and pressure Ethiopia to sign a binding agreement, which will preserve the so called “historical share” on Nile water, in accordance with the unacceptable colonial treaties of 1929 and 1959.
This means in another term, keeping the status quo of what it calls “water quota” and forcing Ethiopia to sign an agreement which will restrict its future use of the water originating from its land. During that time, Sudan’s reasonable position was also considered as an obstacle for Egypt and it preferred pushing for a third party involvement.
As a result of Egypt’s, continuous request for third party led negotiation, Ethiopia accepted it and went to Washington to attend the United States and World Bank led facilitation of the negotiation. While Ethiopia negotiated in good faith based on technical terms, and most issues were resolved, finally Egypt maneuvered the Trump Administration at back door and through Munichen, the former US Secretary of Treasury, it brought a draft binding agreement which restricts Ethiopia’s future use of its Abbay River. That’s why Ethiopia rejected it and another round of negotiation led by African Union, at the presence of United States, World Bank and European Union with observer status has begun. Egypt still continued its attempt to manipulate this African Union led negotiation and is requesting for the observers to have more role, to divert it to a mediation platform.
4. Opting out of the African Union led negotiation to a Quartet led mediation
After realizing that the African Union led negotiation also didn’t serve its manipulation to force Ethiopia sign a binding agreement which will restrict on its future use of Nile water as well as violate the CFA principles, Egypt is requesting to opt out of African led negotiation seeking a Quartet led mediation, which includes AU, UN, US and EU. This is a clear sign of ignoring the continental Organization AU, and rejecting the very African notion of “African Problems for African Solutions”. It’s also a clear manifestation that, Egypt’s policy under President Abdul Fattah El- Sisi’s echoed on giving due focus for Africa is false and it’s an empty media rhetoric, which is failed at a time it’s tested.
5. Resorting to UN Security Council and International Court of Justice (ICJ)
The GERD project, which is being built on trans-boundary Nile River and aimed at generating electricity, is just an issue of the three countries, i.e. Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, and if there is a need of third party to look into the issue is only African Union. By ignoring this reality, Egypt and Sudan have taken the issue to United Nations Security Council twice, on 29 June, 2020 and on 8 July, 2021, by invoking Article 35 of the UN Charter allowing any member state to “bring any dispute or any situation referred to in article 34 [that is, one that may lead to international friction or give rise to a dispute] to the attention of the Security Council or of the General Assembly.” However, both sessions of the Security Council hearing on GERD ended up deciding that, the matter doesn’t belong to the Security Council and referred it back to the African Union.
In relation to the recent UN Security Council session on GERD, I would like to quote from the speech of Eng. Sileshi Bekele (PhD), Minister of Water and Irrigation of Ethiopia, regarding the irrelevance of the GERD issue for Security Council saying that”
“If I’m not mistaken, I’m the first Water and Irrigation Minister of UN member states to come to Security Council session and explain about a hydroelectric dam being built on a trans-boundary river. I hope also that I will be the last one”
Egypt has been also vowing to take the matter to International Court of Justice (ICJ). Some Egyptians argue that, “Egypt has an option to refer GERD issue to ICJ, as it’s one of the principal organs of the UN, and its rulings are binding on all parties.” Nevertheless, this option doesn’t work since it needs all parties consent as well as that the only legal document signed between the three parties i.e. DoP, is a non- binding agreement which cannot be referred to ICJ.
Current status of the Negotiation
The GERD negotiations chaired by the African Union current chair, Felix Tshisekedi, the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has stalled due to Egypt claimed that the April 5 and 6/2021 Kinshasa talks didn’t achieve “progress” it desired. On this round of negotiation, Egypt’s desire to involve Quartet (AU, UN, EU and US) with more mediatory role to reach a binding agreement which will restrict Ethiopia from future use of Nile water was clarified. This move of violating Ethiopia’s future generations’ inviolable right to use their natural gift is totally unacceptable and that’s why Ethiopian negotiators rejected it. It’s also to be recalled that, by continuing on its consistence position, as officially notified to the two negotiating parties regarding its plan to the second filling of GERD and forwarded the data and information of the filling earlier on July, with the blessing of God’s huge rain on the season, Ethiopia has successfully completed the second filling on mid of July, prior to the schedule. This is a great achievement for Ethiopia and also Sudan and Egypt, which are not affected by reduction of the amount of water, and in contrast Sudan engulfed by flood.
What’s the way forward on GERD and utilization of Nile water?
Prior to raising the way forward on GERD and Nile, I would like to mention a personal account of myself when I was in Cairo, Egypt. In this regard, I have observed that, Egyptians highly misuse and waste the Nile, a river which they usually call “existential issue to Egypt”. I have seen how the water is being polluted, diverted to different parts of the city for recreation purpose, as well as agricultural productions known for taking huge amount of water like rice are being produced in Egypt and even exported to other states. Any stranger who visited Cairo can easily witness this reality. This is one alarming issue that needs immediate correction action by Egyptian government before claiming the GERD, which is a non-water consuming hydroelectric project, will reduce the water flowing to Egypt.
Secondly, Egyptian farmers predominantly use an outdated method of farming where excess amount of water is pumped to the field. Therefore, modern irrigation techniques like that of Israel uses needs to be employed in Egypt, which results earning much amount of productions with less amount of water. Additionally, the water being wasted in the deserts of Egypt due to high evaporation needs lasting solution. In this regard, Egypt better cooperate with the upstream countries by supporting efforts of building water banks and planting trees like Ethiopia is doing. The other is employing the mostly suggested solution to Egypt by scholars, which is resorting to other options of water like that of using its abundant underground water and desalination of sea waters. Egyptian government and scholars also have to reorient their people’s mindset on Nile water, by telling them the truth that it’s shared water and it’s not Egypt’s gift only. Egypt’s politician’s using Nile agenda as a means of diverting their domestic problems has to also end and they better focus on addressing their people genuine needs. The warmongering and conspiracy approach of Egyptian governments’ towards upstream countries also needs to stop.
With regard to the way forward on GERD disputes, the only solution is returning back to African Union led negotiation in good faith, with a commitment of reaching a win – win solution. To this end, the primary step expected from Sudan and Egypt is revisiting their position towards the notion of “African solution for African problems”. In this regard, their current move of dragging others like UNSC, Arab League, and Quartet to the agenda is unhelpful and it doesn’t bring any solution as it’s a failed attempt. Especially, Egypt’s attempt to rally Arab League on African issue is quite funny and inappropriate.
On the way forward of Nile utilization, Egypt and Sudan needs to take their first step by accepting the core principle of international trans-boundary water law, which is equitable and fair utilization of shared River. In this regard, putting aside the so called outdated “colonial treaties” is crucial of all. In the dynamically changing geopolitical condition of the region, sticking to an irrelevant colonial treaty is meaningless and doesn’t fit the current condition of the upper Nile riparian states. Egypt and Sudan also better rejoin NBI and sign CFA, if they are really committed to the principle of fair and equitable utilization of Nile water. The time is now for Egypt and Sudan to accept the reality and stand for fair approach towards the future use of Nile water, before it’s too late.
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD JULY 27/2021
