BY FITSUM GETACHEW –
Part One
If all the indications observable in the current contest of election preparations are right, they seem to lead to one outcome only: the country will have recorded a fair and credible election and the foundation of a new country may be laid. Of course not every one may be on the same wavelength of this idea and many may have expressed contrary or controversial statements on the country and the way it is administered. There could be reservations of various kinds but at this crucial moment what counts is firm leadership that can steer the ship out of the turbulent waves and avoid at all costs its drowning!
But despite all this, given the current state of affairs in which the country finds itself, the current challenges that are keeping people in agony, the security situation, the economic situation and several other seemingly insurmountable challenges, some people seem to wish that the incumbent be given the benefit of doubts and remain in control and may be help transit this uncertain period with the minimum shock and damage!
Many observers like to refer as the strong side of the incumbent the enthusiasm and passion of the prime minister who continues to portray not only very optimistic and encouraging messages to the population, which they actually crave for, but also his spirit of nationalism and sense of sacrifice for the sake of keeping the country united: a strong country, an impenetrable country for enemies from wherever they may come!
There is a general understanding that the country finds itself in a difficult moment also because even ‘traditional allies’ seem to put too much undue pressure on our government and this has generated some disappointment if not anxiety. It cannot be underlined enough that these forces have even dared to resort to sanctions supporting those who have brought about all the chaos that we are living in following the unexpected and treasonous attacks on the North Command some months ago. It is clear that this has admittedly even by the government brought about undue pressure on the country even if currently there is the argument that the case seems more of psychological rather than material.
Ethiopians now feel disappointed by entities such as the US government, the G7 and others and all these measures seem to have been adopted based on what the supporters of TPLF peddle as ‘facts’ as well as those who have accepted the position of Egypt and Sudan on the GERD. Their exaggerated and even invented accusations that they will be damaged by the filling of the GERD must have been taken at face value! Ethiopians never had illusions that world powers would side with Ethiopia dismissing totally the claims of Egypt and Sudan; but they never thought that the support for these two downstream countries would be of such intensity and resolve.
Ethiopia believes its position has not been given due consideration because its rights on the Nile seem to be sidelined in favour of the narratives of Egypt and Sudan, despite the assessments and findings of even their own hydrologists and scientists. Ethiopians now suspect that the entire story is one of ‘geopolitical influence’ and strategies that may even involve the big powers. China and Russia who are committed allies of Ethiopia, particularly in this crucial period of time could be mentioned. Both countries have supported Ethiopia’s claims that it does not accept interference in its internal affairs while persecuting the rebels in the north and going ahead with filling the GERD with water during the coming rainy season! They say Ethiopia’s sovereign rights must not be put for discussion!
The distance between a healthy relationship with these partners and their insistence that we sit with the bitter enemies of the government and people of Ethiopia seems to contradict with one another. The Ethiopian government has repeatedly made its position clear that it would never sit down with ‘traitors of the republic’ who unscrupulously and irresponsibly carried out a naked and vicious attack against their own compatriots and comrades in arms, and this has not only disappointed but also distressed all Ethiopians. Would any government sit down to discuss with entities such as al caida or IS? The Ethiopian government has reiterated that for it to sit at the same table with TPLF traitors is just as the West negotiating with ISIS!
The stance of the western governments has been taken as a disappointment as it is evident that it has completely turned blind eyes to the long term national interests of Ethiopia. This is unacceptable to Ethiopians because it amounts to meddling in the internal affairs of the country and deciding for it. No one can deny that Ethiopia is a huge country in the African contest with a great influence on African affairs. It also has impeccable reputation in world diplomacy, at UN and AU circles, and has been for years one of the key contributors to peace keeping missions of the UN.
All this seems not to be taken in account when what all these nations are forcing us to do is negotiate with leaders of a banned and terrorist organization. Equally, negotiating on the terms of how we make legal and reasonable use our legitimate water rights on the Nile with leaders of Sudan and Egypt, who are adamant with colonial treaties, is unacceptable to any government worthy of its name. Ethiopia has repeatedly guaranteed in front of experts of the matter that it will never operate the GERD to harm downstream countries. It is doing whatever any responsible government would do to its population: construct a hydroelectric dam and bring about energy and power to its nationals!
As a sovereign nation both ideas cannot be accepted by Ethiopian leaders and people.
It would be giving in to blackmail and it would be capitulation to terrorists and saboteurs. Egypt and Sudan have been openly conducting hostile political policies and propaganda against Ethiopia accusing it falsely of trying to ‘strangle’ Egypt by filling the GERD. This is not at all true and the supporters of Egypt including the politicians themselves know it is not true. They have even admitted it at certain occasion. But as a political leverage they do not want to accept that Ethiopia begin to make legitimate and full use of the potential of the waters of the Nile, because that would end the hegemony of these countries including the major western allies of Egypt.
Ethiopia’s clout in the international affairs, particularly in Africa would be unlimited and it would not be that easy to bend the government and people of Ethiopia. There is the knowledge that already Ethiopia has a glorious past history and Ethiopia is seen as an epitome of freedom and independence in many African countries and this evidently has never been appreciated or accepted by countries such as Egypt! And those who are blindly supporting Egypt’s policies such as the members of the Arab League have continued in their negative remarks and declarations meddling in African affairs. Ethiopia strongly rejects these remarks and statements.
Ethiopia above all has now developed close friendship with the government in Asmara and together their influence on Red Sea geopolitical scenario has skyrocketed. This may not please any of these countries. The immense influence that countries such as China, Russia and even Turkey are seen exerting in the sub-region may be considered a potential threat to the interests of the West now that they consider above all China as a formidable adversary and a rival in their quest to maintaining dominion in Africa and many third world countries.
Ethiopia is now seemingly caught among two great sides trying to determine the strategic interests of the people. Ethiopians know that it would be disastrous for Ethiopia to totally abandon its relations with the West and fall in the solitary embrace of China and Russia etc because there are too many interests that would be covered adequately by these forces. At the same time however, they realize that it cannot allow its pride and dignity be compromised by forcing it to submit to its archenemies TPLF and its supporters and to those who object to developing the Nile waters to suit its trajectory of progress and development.
It is under these circumstances that the general elections are carried out and may be these rival forces may try to undermine the sovereignty of the country by discrediting any of the democratic ventures it takes. That is also why the outcome of these elections needs to be a strong message of endorsement to the incumbent and strong message of rejection to those who carry out negative propaganda against 120 million people.
The Ethiopian Herald June 22/2021
