BY BLEN M DIRIBA –
Part II
The US and its western allies have repeatedly called on the Ethiopian government to extend the upcoming election and hold a national dialogue with political ‘representatives’ of different ethnicities in Ethiopia – including Jawar Mohammed and the TPLF terrorists’ political and military leadership. The Ethiopian government, however, has made it abundantly clear that it won’t negotiate with terrorists that attacked and conspire to attack the ENDF, unarmed civilians and so forth – resulting in a serious national security crisis that would have caused complete state collapse. Such diplomatic and propaganda pressure has now upgraded its form and the EU and other western institutions have refused to observe the election in an effort to undermine its legitimacy.
In addition, western politicians, scholars, right groups and media have been labeling the upcoming election as a fait accompli – whereby Abiy Ahmed’s victory is already established – making the election a trivial act. They further warn Ethiopia is not politically, socially and institutionally ready to hold an election and if held, it might be a watershed – but in a bad way – being a turn to the worse. It has to be noted that such fear is also understandably shared by a significant number of Ethiopians, whether they support Abiy Ahmed or not.
In contrast, Abiy Ahmed’s administration and his supporters, who considered themselves ‘the silent majority’, claim the reverse. They dismiss the anti Abiy Ahmed and Anti-Ethiopian oriented argument of threats and terrors by extreme ethno nationalists that has now dominated the national political discourse. They believe this election is a watershed in a way that it would be a momentous event to start the journey to the long awaited ‘genuine’ democratization and prosperity of Ethiopia.
Majority of Ethiopians, even with the risk of an escalated security crisis on the horizon, believe the election will provide Abiy – or whoever is to win the election – the power and confidence to take bold measures, thereby facilitating peace, security, and development in Ethiopia.
On the other hand, the extreme Oromo nationalists [esp. The Islamist extremist base – which is Jawar Mohammed’s strong hold] believe that this election will provide Abiy Ahmed the legitimacy to implement ‘Amhara’s Anti-federalist Agenda’ on the expense of the Oromo people and other ‘federalist forces’. Meanwhile, the Amhara nationalists observe each and every move with strong suspicion; at times claiming Abiy Ahmed is implementing the ‘Oromuma Project’ at the expense of the Amhara people – thereby causing existential threat. Likewise, the TPLF oriented extremist Tigray nationalists accused the man of every horrible war crimes in the crimes they are committing to discredit Abiy’s administration.
Now, with that note, one shall ask if the upcoming election is really a fait accompli – i.e. a cosmetic election conducted to meet the bare minimum requirement of holding an election – or is it a watershed in Ethiopia’s political history, i.e. an epochal juncture towards a bright future, or a dark one.
A Watershed or a Fait Accompli: Transitions and Cosmetic Elections
Among the various justifications critics of the current Ethiopian government present to support their objection to the upcoming elections, the election being a fait accompli – where the results are already decided [making Abiy’s party a winner] – is one of them. They argue the election is only a cosmetic one aimed at solidifying Abiy Ahmed’s power and pave the way to dictatorship. The critics, however, intentionally ignore the fact that Ethiopia is in transition from authoritarianism to democracy – simultaneously undergoing political, economic and social reforms. And in times of transition, holding elections, whether free and fair or not, is normally considered the minimum requirement a government should be abided by.
Thus, neither the international critics nor the domestic opponents of Abiy Ahmed should neither totally dismiss the election, nor expect the same standard of fairness and efficiency in the system and outcome of the upcoming election – as in ‘advanced democracies’ in Europe and the US. They shall rather out forward a coordinated effort to ensure the transition delivers the anticipated outcome by using the upcoming election as a stepping stone towards a successful journey of democratization and development. It is quite obvious that the price for democracy is high in a politically hyperpolarized nation such as Ethiopia, and election is a minimal effort in the process to establish a sustainable democracy.
Yet, the election does not guarantee that repressive. Given his track record for the past three years, however, it seems highly unlikely considering his demonstrated commitment to prosper and democratize the nation. One thing is for sure, he needs time – but meanwhile – Ethiopia might vacillate in the democratic experiment [the upcoming election being one of them]; stucking in transitions – expanding and contracting democratic rights as deemed necessary. Abiy Ahmed’s opponents and international critics also denounced the unwavering determination of the government to hold this election despite the ‘lack of institutional efficiency’ and ‘logistical woes’. They dismissed such commitment as a rather meaningless attempt to dress authoritarian rule in the trappings of democracy. They also add the self-expulsion of political parties from the election as a worrying sign that the election is nothing but a sham.
However, the objective analysis of the facts on the ground only suggests the contrary, especially given the rigorous institutional and legal reform conducted on the national electoral board (hereby referred to as NEBE) and the national electoral law; and the relatively wide space provided for political parties to be the heart and soul of the national political discourse – since Abiy took office. In addition, the very idea of suggesting the election will lead to a likely reversion to authoritarianism based on the fact that few political and crisis entrepreneurs [domestic and foreign allies of TPLF Terrorists] are behind bars in an effort to ensure the rule of law is flabbergasting. It rather sends a wrong [and dangerous] message that political candidates cannot be held legally accountable for the crimes they recklessly commit – endangering the sovereign existence of the state, and the public at large to satisfy their greed for power and money at any cost.
Moreover, it undermines the significant reforms made to and by the national election board in order to enhance its capacity and ensure its legitimacy to efficiently hold the election. Such reforms are one of a kind that enables NEBE to preserve the frequency and competitiveness of elections, and ensure the availability of general political information (about policies, candidates, performances etc). In addition, Post reform NEBE is relatively in a good position to ensure acceptance of rules, free speech and association, equal access to voting, enforceable election laws and so forth to their level best – thereby enhancing public faith in the system [esp. as compared to the TPLF Regime NEBE] and legitimizing the overall procedure and process of the upcoming election. Moreover, the reform in the justice and security sector is also a plus to the overall effort being made to ensure the objectiveness, effectiveness and reliability of the election and its outcome.
Concluding Remarks:
Election is not a one-size-fits-all solution for the difficult challenge of transforming oppressive states into free and open societies. It can’t always be perfect, nor could it always determine the fate of nations by following the western playbook. Elections could be democratic or cosmetic – depending on the socio-political and economic situation of nations. Similarly, when held in nations undergoing democratic transitions form autocracy, they could be a turn to the best or to the worse. Ethiopia, as a nation transitioning from half a century of authoritarianism, is faced with the same – i.e., an uphill battle to democracy, prosperity and stability – or a downhill path to authoritarianism.
Comes what may, the upcoming election, whether free and fair – or a “fake it till you make it”, is a historically significant element in the process of Ethiopia’s transition to democracy [especially given the nation’s long history of violent political transitions].
. Not only it shapes the political future of Abiy Ahmed, but also the democratic and economic future of Ethiopia. It gives an important signal of whether or not democracy can be immersed and consolidated in Ethiopian politics, given the undeniable impact it will have on the prospects and arrangements of the current regime – and the country’s general political culture. Moreover, the resilient determination of the government to hold the 6th general election in a period of transition and crisis is sufficient to suggest that Ethiopia is at least not bouncing back to the 1970s – or even worse – and we are rather heading on the right path to democracy.
The Ethiopian Herald June 18 /2021
