PART II
Ethiopia and ethnic-based politics: Dancing atop a powder keg tinderbox
Even if Ethiopia succeeds in filling the dam and the dam becomes operational as intended, Ethiopia will not be out of the woods yet unless it seriously addresses some of the deliberate acts or minefields that challenge its nationhood and pose existential threat. There is another divisive design of the EPRDF and the current government of Abiy Ahmad dances with the Russian roulette of ethnic-based politics. Initially, the Italians tried to introduce ethnic-based politics during their occupation of Ethiopia (1936-1941). The minority TPLF-led EPRDF government put the colonial ploy with the same motive of divide and rule. The experiment produced ethnic-based bloodshed and created a dualistic labeling of “Us” against “Them”. This ethnic-based politics miserably failed to deliver peace and harmony among Ethiopians.
Such old-fashioned colonial strategy must be discredited and not allowed to create animus between Ethiopians; an obstacle to a democratic, multi-ethnic and multi-cultural rainbow nation. The existing constitution that espoused such a sinister design by an ethnic minority ruling party must be completely discarded and replaced by one that protect individual rights, guarantee rule of law, implement transparent checks-and-balances between branches of governments, uphold human rights and follow democratic rights and principles. If left unchanged, such divisive regimes would allow national adversaries to exploit the situation and encourage blood shade, human catastrophe and misery. Ethiopia is already a laughingstock of African’s who have long buried such a colonial design of divide and rule.
More and above all, with the dominance of ethnic politics in the country, Ethiopians can barely afford dancing atop the ethnic tinderbox of powder keg that can blow at any moment and end joys with untold catastrophe. As explained above, enemies of the country can easily undermine the unity of the country fueling ethnic and religious conflicts and promoting unwholesome rivalries. Come on, Ethiopia, you were not born yesterday. Don’t allow your historic enemies to have a field day. Decisively, get rid of your ethnic-based and divisive politics and instill young minds with the country’s rich history, diversity, equality, pan-Ethiopian and pan-African knowledge and legacy as the previous generations undertook.
The National election which was postponed last year because of COVID-19 is wisely postponed with the agreement of the opposition parties. Unfortunately, the current political environment in the country, partly because of the ethnic-based rivalry, disenables fair, transparent, and conducive situations for campaign. Even if conducive environment for election prevails in the country, elections would not necessarily result in or assure democracy. Elections in Africa and other developing countries have resulted in the birth of illiberal democracies as Fareed Zakaria in his book, The Future of Freedom, aptly illustrated. In most African countries, despite all the paraphrenia of elections; raised hopes, spirited promises and flowery speeches, elections failed to provide the minimum democratic deliverables. As witnessed, post-elections have resulted in human rights abuses, lack of transparency and the rule of law and essences of democracy miserably tramped over. Corrupt and rapacious despots are elevated and poor citizens carried the brunt. In order to have a lasting peace, ensure durable development and a blossoming democratic principle, national understanding and ironing out differences must precede elections. National peace and reconciliation must be entertained first.
Egypt: in Africa but not of Africa
Regarding the Dam on the Abay River, Egypt has also exhibited its true persona to African countries, especially the African Union (AU). Egypt, and its accomplice Sudan, went against the spirit of Pan-Africanism and questioned AU’s ability to resolve African problems and rushed to enlist EU and US to resolve their dispute, albeit the presence of the chair of the AU. This, obviously, undermines the principle and efforts of Africans to solve their own problems (finding African solutions to African problems). Taking an alternative view demonstrates that Egypt has no faith in the AU of which it is a founding member since the establishment of the previous OAU in 1963. Although Egypt is in Africa it continues to juggle (or is confused) about what President Nassir dubbed as Concentric Circle of the Egyptian identity referred as Nasserism — African, Arab, and Islamic, as outlined in his revolutionary book —Egypt’s Liberation: The Philosophy of the Revolution (1955). Yet despite the lofty idea of Egyptian African identity, located in the African continent, yet the current leader, Al Sisi, acts as if his country, Egypt, is not of Africa in this specific politics. This would be in tandem with the views of some black Africans who resided in Egypt. They closely witnessed that most Egyptians felt no affinity for Africa and with the Africans.
The cardinal raison d’ etat of the AU is to promote the unity and solidarity of the African states, coordinate and intensify their cooperation in order to ensure a better life for the Africans and to defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Renaissance Dam is to help Ethiopia develop, overcome and mitigate poverty, help boost economic growth and development of the region. Such efforts will contribute to the realization of Africa’s “Agenda 2063”. Egypt’s stand contrary to the African principle of solving their problems on their own. The support Egypt solicits and gathers from Arab countries and the Maghreb region, north of the Sahara, could lead to Afro-Arab rift. Unfortunately, Egypt, under Al Sisi, has veered towards the wrong side of African interest and pan-Africanism. That is not a wise policy.
The technical expert from Ethiopia who deal with GERD, assure us that the dam is technically sound, provides added value especially for Sudan such as cheap electricity, obstruct flooding, regulate the fluctuation of water level, reduce evaporation from the hot simmering sun both in Sudan and Egypt. This clearly indicates that GERD has advantages, a positive-sum-game calculation, for Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. It is unfortunate that Egypt opted to politicize the situation which is for its domestic audience and political survival in the face of the political quagmire he is faced with.
It is time, especially for Egypt, to burry its ego and get out of zero-sum calculation and strive for win-win gain for all stakeholders in the region. It can also benefit from its neighbor, Israel’s experience, with whom it has established diplomatic relationship. Israel’s water preservation and distribution technology of drip irrigation is beneficial for others. Egypt must also extensively grow drought-tolerant crops, discourage unnecessary wastage and abuse of water, plant high yield crops and consider employing desalination technology. Above all, Egypt must be more environmentally conscious and be considerate of others. Be mindful of the fact that more water evaporates in its desserts than the water used in Ethiopia.
The GERD plan was initially conveyed to both Egypt and Sudan in 1991. They were consulted, shared technical information, amended as requested by the parties and, above all, invited to contribute to the construction of the dam so that they also would feel stakeholders in building and empowered. In the past, Egypt created obstacles for Ethiopia from borrowing funds from institutions such as the World Bank for the construction of the dam. But Ethiopia was forced to take a bold action of funding the construction on its own in the amount of 5 billion USD. Egypt, on the other hand, resorted to undermining the construction and made bellicose warning such as the “Red line” must not be crossed. Egypt, in its blatant action is not only challenging Ethiopia but also Africans and their continental organization – the African Union.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, has taken the correct and appropriate stand in this case. That posture, by itself, will earn Ethiopia the African support and influence them to stand with Ethiopia, a country for whom most still hold positive views. They are historically averse to the interference of outsiders in African affairs as they would be reminded of colonial and post-colonial domineers.
As for the US, its correct policy must be completely siding with Ethiopia and the AU as important segments of its constituencies, especially African Americans, have historically stood with Ethiopia and uphold the bold, constructive, and independent stand of the AU. Already the US influence in Africa and other regions are seriously being challenged, especially during the Trump administration. He insulted the continent, called “sheet hole”, and openly and undiplomatically gave a green light to Egypt to “bomb” the dam. After juggling with the failed policy of the Trump Administration, lately the Biden administration seems to pursue a correct policy of neutrality and supporting the AU find amicable solution to this predominantly African problem. Let us allow Africans to oversee their destiny.
PROF. GETACHEW METAFERIA
Morgan State University, USA
The Ethiopian Herald 30 May 2021
