US has imposed visa restrictions on Ethiopian officials whom it accuses of causing humanitarian crisis during the conflict in Tigray. Some news outlets further uncover the sanction would escalate into an economic embargo in which Ethiopia will never accept and would probably break down its historical alliance if the plan of economic sanction becomes effective.
It’s becoming obvious to witness that American sanctions target around two dozen countries, with some states experiencing what amounts to near total economic embargoes. Why are these policies in place, what effects do they have, and how successful are they in achieving their geopolitical objectives?
Sanctions have massive humanitarian costs and are not only ineffective but likely counterproductive. On these points, there is overwhelming agreement in the academic literature. Such policies can reduce the economic performance of the targeted state, degrade public health, and cause tens of thousands of deaths per year under the most crushing sanctions regimes including security matters and regional stability. Moreover, they almost always fail to achieve their goals, particularly when the aim is regime change or significant behavioral changes pertaining to what states consider their fundamental interests. Sanctions can even backfire, making mass killing and repression more likely, while decreasing the probability of democratization. Hence, having the Visa restriction at the primer measure and planned to position the economic embargo for the poor nation conditions DEMOCRCY is a reckless and wrong thought by the US.
In fact, thinking and ultimately achieving the above policies against Ethiopia at this volatile time is quite imposable and impracticable.US must think twice not to carry out its wrong and irresponsible plan, rather to think about even ’Economic Embargo’ which is positioned in line.
However, it is good enough to think of why, then, does the United States additionally plans the economic sanctions after endorsing the visa restriction on the country’s officials? Well, the popularity of sanctions owes more to the domestic interests of the super powers to achieve their geopolitical goals.
In fact, American policymakers show little interest in the empirical research on sanctions and they often do not supplement trade restrictions with diplomatic efforts that can help achieve a bargain. In contrast, sanctions make them sense from the perspective of domestic politics and political psychology. For the later, American may be skeptic on PM Abiy’s political ideology and his economic policy. For them, the new PM seems a guy who doesn’t want to show its true color and conceals his political intimacy to any of the world nations’ and hence they are frustrating that Ethiopia may tighten its being an ally for either Russia or China or other nations. Thus, such a tendency would be a huge loss for the two countries century-old bilateral ties.
Currently, the US is entirely twisting the so called humanitarian crisis in Tigray agenda and gripping and owning the GERD issue as its pivotal project. The Toshka project in which many American companies are involved and becoming the ambitious project in creating the second Nile Valley forced the US to win the debate of GERD with Ethiopia.
For the Americans and Egyptians together with Sudanese, Ethiopia’s current domestic politics is a blessing in disguise milestone of gesture of obedience in fulfilling their national interest. Americans may not like the current regime to continue and wanted to replace by their puppet regime despite making it impossible which would presumably change the Horn’s geo political status quo in a very difficult atrocity.
Their first gesture of visa restrictions on the regime’s officials signifies two things in two sides. The first one is Ethiopia’s sluggish, weak and lenient diplomatic work with the US and other foreign nations. Secondly, US indirect intrusion in keeping its GERD interest via domestic political uproars in the name of humanitarian crisis.
With all this difficult times, the nation will prevail by conquering all of its historical enemies.
BY TESFAYE BEZABIH (PhD)
The Ethiopian Herald 30 May 2021
