Last week, the US Senate passed a unanimous resolution against Ethiopia and this week the US imposed a wide range of economic sanctions and restricted visas to government and military officials from Ethiopia. Before that, the US leadership dispatched Senator Chris Coons and later Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman to Ethiopia, as part of their endeavor to get first-hand experience and understanding of the matter which was not bad by itself! It is also reported that the American top leaders and their European counterparts are having meetings in relation to the recent situation of the Horn African. Why are these upper echelons of the western bloc conspiring against Ethiopia? What bothers them so deeply that they are almost dealing with this at most priority? In this piece a deeper analysis together with advice from Ethiopian perspective are provided.
How things start to look deem for the Western powers
President Trump’s administration had one strong motto, i.e., “America first.” In another language, any other thing pertaining to partners anywhere in the world was secondary. Period. This foreign policy has failed many partners of this powerful nation across the globe. This includes TPLF leadership in Ethiopia. As they say, President Trump cares for himself and Egypt has got access to him and he was in a way helping Egypt when it comes to the conflict with Ethiopia due to the GERD project. But when it comes to TPLF leadership Mr. Trump showed no interest at all. He was not a good steward when it comes to taking care of those old partners of the USA; the EU’s are the best witnesses for that.
On the contrary, he was somehow positive to the new leadership after the reform in the country, not because he cares but it has to do with that foreign policy he had. That is why TPLF felt helpless during the past three years and resented the USA under the Trump administration. As a matter of fact, it was not in the will of Mr. Trump to go back in time and study how good partners TPLF were. So TPLF took the chance of election time in the USA and began the war. But lost it at an alarming rate. Its consequences become painful for themselves and for the majority of innocent people of Tigray. Most importantly, leaving the long-term partners, the western bloc friends, in disbelief and dismay.
The upper echelon of the western bloc deep interest
The western bloc had a special relationship with TPLF as described. Their relationship goes back to more than four decades. TPLF was their partner when the West was fighting the proxy war with the communist Soviet Union in Eastern Africa, and a stunt ally in the war on terror as well as on the many neo-liberal policies they were forcing on the world. TPLF has also benefited in many ways. Financially, they have accumulated billions in the western financial systems. They have access to top international media outlets.
And many of its people have access to the upper echelon of the western bloc, including the WHO top spot. One can say, name any international organization, NGO’s, and maybe top universities in the west, the sympathizers of TPLF are there. This is where TPLF is strong right now. It has deeper ties with the top people in the western bloc. This paid them off when the new administration in the USA started to function well after a devastating foreign policy under the Trump administration. That is why the west is dominated by the narratives of the TPLF right now. Susan Rice, the best friend of TPLF, is back at the helm. She and her colleagues are now bringing the European friends together to save their partner, the partner that does their best at any cost.
If you are asking yourself how the western bloc is doing such a thing against Ethiopia, why are they doing it? It lies in understanding the strength of the TPLF network in the upper echelon of the western bloc. The more than forty years of relationship is not a simple matter. A deeper attachment has been there. Many mutual secrets were buried under mutual symbiosis deals.
The bond was strong. Now, this hidden network and relationship is functioning in full. One should not dare to undermine it. That is where the answer for the above questions lies. There are people at the top echelon of the western block, both westerners and TPLF diaspora people who are working day and night to realize what they want. That is in full display. Things just do not happen. They are done by design. Remember also that, the strength of TPLF is to play with the weak side of the western bloc. They know which buttons to use to agitate and get the attention of the western bloc.
In fact, Ethiopia was without real representation on the world stage for the past few decades. Even now, those who claim to represent the country are in most part dysfunctional, incapable and novice, but they think that they are doing a good job. The results shown are proving the opposite time and time again. The western bloc has less interest in Ethiopian narratives than the TPLF version of the eastern African region. Hence, they believe that eastern Africa will be better for them with the presence of TPLF, even at the helm. That is what they know in the past 40 years: TPLF dismantle the DERG military government, fighting terrorism, controlling every Eastern African country for them.
That is it. Now, they think that without TPLF they have no control over eastern Africa and even Africa at large since Ethiopia is the gateway to countries like China. On the other hand, the new administration in Ethiopia is more patriotic and cares for its own country than the interests of the western bloc. Coupled with the defiant Eritrean and the Somalia leaders, it is a grave concern for the west! So, these powers have to use the TPLF as a bargaining chip to intimidate and control the region, at least.
The Biden administration, led by top advisors like Susan Rice and others, is now consistently conspiring against Ethiopia just to resurrect TPLF or at least to use it to its advantage. It is not Biden who is doing it. He may have no clue about it even. But there are a lot of people at the top who are convincing him otherwise. The strategy from Ethiopia’s side has to change. Ethiopia should try to build the narrative that it is the best ally one can have if sustainability in the region is the goal of the western bloc. Unless and otherwise, they are only concerned with their own interest.
Advice to the western bloc
Dear upper echelon of the western bloc and the wider western people, before and as you turn punitive attitude to Ethiopia, please take into consideration the following three things:
i) TPLF in the past and TPLF in the present are in different states in many ways. In the past, TPLF enjoyed help from the Arab bloc, Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt, the northern Ethiopian people including both Amhara and Tigre people to defeat Derg military hardware. Now they do not have all that luxury. Even their own people whom they controlled for 46 years have lost trust in them. The only place TPLF is strong is in your own corridors. You have provided them that place and they know your language and they can talk to your ears with the narratives that can manipulate your head easily.
That is where they are strong. They know your playbook well. That means you are in the hands of crafty deceivers and liars who are well trained to talk to you in your own language, tactics, strategies and context. It is difficult to escape such a whisperer very close to home. How TPLF was detested by Tigrian people before all this confusion began and how fast TPLF lost the central power and later the war it designed to win should have been the evidence that tells you who TPLF in reality is. Wake up now!
ii) If you have a real passion for the wellbeing of the Tigrian People, why not force these TPLF diaspora sympathizers to be constructive with the young leadership in Ethiopia. Why not tell them to come to terms with reality and come out from deception and denial. Why not use their skill and knowledge to help their people. The people in Tigray are continually being misled and manipulated by these diaspora TPLF wings, which are closer to you. The people are encouraged to be destructive and resist any meaningful transition in the country so that they get the direct interference of the international community. But, do you think the Western bloc gains from this?
iii) The new leadership in Ethiopia should be given the benefit of the doubt. The young leadership has many challenges, but it also has all the necessary elements of a progressive, technocrat, democrat and modern government system. If the forces who are against it work together Ethiopia will continue to be the most sustainable partner in eastern Africa for the global community.
Advice to the Ethiopian Government’s new administration
The young Ethiopian administration has done great so far despite all the sabotages inside and outside of the country. It is courageous to stand in all these overwhelming circumstances. Keep it up! But more is needed.
i) Present the administration as a capable and reliable partner in both regional and global issues. Especially, equip yourself diplomatically with competent people at all levels. Put the interest of the country first when assigning those who represent the country at the top level on the global stage, as you do in GERD negotiations.
ii) Reach out to the people at the upper echelon of the western bloc. Present the evidence and show them the potential the new leadership has for eastern Africa, Africa, and for the international community at large. Turning the western bloc as enemies, in the long run, may not help. It is better for the country to be constructive than to be distracted with enmity.
iii) Those adversaries in the western corridor are well-trained and experienced people. Do not undermine them. If you can engage most of them constructively it might pay off in the long run. There are many who are talented and trained but disappointed since they are afraid that their time is over. Invite them to take part in the affairs of the country. Know their weakness and strength. Study their engagement and use it to the country’s advantage. Help them to come out from their dismay and disappointment. This may turn the page against few individuals who are destructive and dangerous.
BY DEJEN RAS
The Ethiopian Herald May 27/2021
