PART I
It is an established fact that the general election in Ethiopia is only a few weeks away and everybody seems to be well informed about it. Political parties and personalities who are trying to be elected to the House of Peoples Representatives are busy introducing and promoting their respective policies and propositions. Using the media and all the communications means available they are trying to campaign for the polls so that people are well aware of their ideas and make a choice.
Apparently each political force that is seeking to be elected is hopeful of attracting the public to be ‘the favorite force’ or the preferred body in contention. How do we gauge this general state of affairs and how do we assess the feedback and reaction of the potential electors to the entire process and related activities or developments? It is good to look at them with some detail.
Be that as it may, there are certain observations that any acute observer may not fail to notice and think about. And this is the apparent lack of enthusiasm or fascination or still less excitement on the part of a part of the population as a whole regarding the entire exercise. There seems to reign some form of distraction away from the core of electoral issues as other issues (read security, COVID-19, Tigray crisis, GERD, inflation…..) seem to dominate our current political landscape.
The first indication is the declared and well observed or marked incidence of not so many people committing to take their election cards that would enable them to cast their vote, express their feelings and judgment through their choice. Naturally, if one is not registered, there is no way of casting their vote or making their voice heard on Election Day! This means others are deciding for you; others are determining your future!
Many say there are several presumed justifications for this apathy of potential voters not to be so concerned as to be attracted to go to any polling station take one’s time and register. Observers have asked why this is so? The first factor that is presented as decisive is thinking in terms of the idea that taking a card amounts to legitimizing this government now in power; and they tend to erroneously believe that it means giving it a chance to continue governing by taking part in anything that it wants to do! Some may even have come to the conclusion that the result cannot be contrary to the wishes of the current ruling party.
The expected outcome that can come from this ‘election’ could only be a confirmation for Prosperity Party to reign. This is of course pure speculation that has its own weaknesses and gaps. To start with there is no proofs of such outcome but perceptions that have developed along the past decades continue to linger on and threaten even today’s reality! Some people seem to be prisoners of past experiences and are apparently incapable of coming out of such box. But it is also hard to blame them because such process has gone on for ages!
The fact that certain political forces have already opted to ‘boycott the polls’ may also have influenced the choices of the electing population, inducing them to believe that this should not be the path to follow for the country now. These forces are heard arguing only if there is ‘a new constitution’ could any elections worthy of the name be held. But the risk of a vicious circle is palpable. The risk of putting the cart before the horse is also another eventual obstacle.
We tend to forget what sorts of risks the country is running right now! The country may risk dangerous instability in the absence of an agreed upon status quo, ‘a constitution’ albeit not what everybody would like. Notably certain parties in Oromia and Tigray have not wanted to be a part of the process alleging that they need certain conditions they want to be satisfied. There have been several rounds of discussions and according to the premier, he has personally urged them to take part in the process and contribute their share by working to save the democratic process. And yet there have been certain unacceptable conditions put by some of these forces. But what they have chosen to do is trying to delegitimize the entire process!
The National Electoral Board has declared that it has been looking into the requests of these forces, but there were certain conditions they tried to impose on them and that was not acceptable without losing its own credibility and fairness or lawfulness. This controversy created apparently on purpose seems to have contributed to the decrease in enthusiasm in certain circles. But even so there are people who are determined to register and vote and hope that the party they voted for will hold power or seize the opportunity to govern the country.
It is perplexing to hear that certain political parties try to impose their own conditions for elections to be held in the first place. One may ask however, don’t they test the system as it is and then try to change whatever needs to be changed through time? For many such parties only winning or the guarantee to victory is the condition for their participation and this is not a democratic rule at all! No one can be guaranteed to win an election before it is even held. Many people today regret that had the CUD or the then Kinijit Party accepted to get into parliament availing the scores of seats, may be things may not have reached today’s conditions. Things may have changed and EPRDF may have been restrained from acting in total lawlessness and confidence of monopoly of power! May be!
But another huge obstacle to the apparent lack of enthusiasm is the state of the country, the socio-economic and political situation. One huge factor mentioned as obstacle is the lack of stability and peace in various parts of the country that does not encourage (may be understandably so) people to engage wholeheartedly in similar ventures. An entire regional state such as Tigray is still undergoing the aftermath of the infamous attacks on Ethiopian National Defence Forces and this will remain a dark stain on the country’s political landscape.
BY FITSUM GETACHEW
The Ethiopian Herald May 26/2021
