We are all puzzled with this question: why foreign interference in Ethiopia at this scale? Three contextual aspects are crucial to understand it in a comprehensive way: The Global, Regional and Local Context. In our age, the global actors’ involvement in local or regional affairs cannot be denied. We cannot see the local happenings separated from the regional or global aspects of our life either. The three contextual categories are presented here from the Ethiopian perspective.
The Global Context.
Remember the world we live in, in general, has some kind of boss at any given time. After the second world war, the Western world seems to dominate the course of action. Of course, there was the so-called cold-war rivalry between the east and west bloc. It forced countries to align to the communist Soviet Union or the west, anti-communist bloc. Of course, some nations may claim that they were neutral. But the global context at that time was to choose one of the two sides. Ethiopia, in the 1970s G.C. was forced to be in the communist camp. The impact of that choice is still lingering resonating in the country. Even the world is still struggling to get the roots of such a dividedried. After a while, fighting terrorism becomesthe code of the global orientation. Countries pledge to fight terrorism. And Ethiopia is part of that global coalition to fight the cause. This has also brought another interest of the global forces to the country.
In the current global context, we can say that the new competition is mainly for economic dominance— a real focus of the global powers. This in turn is drawing the global forces back to Ethiopia. This is what is being felt on the ground, right now. The new economic powers like China, India, Brazil, Russia, and so on are the real challenges for the western bloc such as EU, UK, and USA that long dominated the world.
The greedy capitalists decided to move factories and industries from the western countries to the eastern and developing part of the world, some decades ago for the sake of cheap labor power. This later created a huge loss in the quality of life in western countries. This was evidenced in the Brexit in the UK and Trumpism phenomenon in the UK and the USA, respectively. The people spoke loudly. They were dissatisfied with their leaders anda few rich people who enjoy life at the expense of the masses. Now the politicians are trapped between their own desire and the people’s dissatisfaction. They seem to have devised a way to tackle the source of the problem: the economic dominance
The new frontiers are mostly represented by the powerful USA and the emerging economic powerhouse China. China has penetrated into Africa, and one of the main doors is Ethiopia since it is the seat of the African Union and many international organizations. A symbolic expression of China’s growing presence in Africa is shown by the new elegant building housing the African Union Headquarters. A lot has been said about this phenomenon. Especially, the Chinese firms dominate infrastructural projects’ construction in the continent hugely and that is a concern for the western bloc. Even Barack Obama has expressed his concern in the Economist in 2014 as follows: “My advice to African leaders are to make sure that if, in fact, China is putting in roads and bridges, number one, that they’re hiring African workers; number two, that the roads don’t just lead from the mine to the port to Shanghai, but that there’s an ability for the African governments to shape how this infrastructure is going to benefit them in the long term.”
Even other rising countries like India, Brazil, or African nations like Ethiopia are not welcomed to share the wealth in the eyes of the powers who used to dominate the world. Otherwise, they will also be powerful in many respects and challenge the traditional dominance in the world. This is not welcomed. It seems like a conspiracy, but it is real. Adding the concern more grievously, remember Russia is also trying to rise up and come back and bite its portion. And it usually aligns itself with the new actors in the world to erode the economic dominance of the western world.
In this global context, where does Ethiopia fit? For more than four decades, the west had a stunt ally in Ethiopia: TPLF. This partner fought the good fight for the west. First, it fought back the communist aligned DERG regime in Ethiopia. Then later it also became the main partner in fighting terrorism in the horn of Africa. Not only that, even economically, it has aligned, in the most part, to the rules and regulations of the western main agents like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, as the west tried to impose the neoliberal economic policies on people all over the world. Such a partner is very dear to the west. That is why too much involvement is from the western world in Ethiopia right now. They wanted someone who can accomplish their agenda. The new administration in Ethiopia seems patriotic and risks protecting the interests of its people. Hence, there exists dissatisfaction from the WEST. No wonder for us, if the west is looking for a wounded or dead partner, trying to resurrect it from the dead. It is like the mafia, families. They care for each other’s benefits.
The Regional Context.
Like any other region in the world, the Eastern African region has its own historical and cultural context. The countries in this part of the world have mutual interests, border conflicts, economic interests, and competition to be a regional powerhouse in the eyes of the rest of the world. Ethiopia and Eritrea have been in conflict for two decades primarily due to assuming local power in the regional sphere of influence, though it was portrayed as border conflict. Recently, this tension seems vanishing even though things are not yet formalized completely. Somalia has torn apart into many parts for decades now, though two parts have emerged as relatively strong, one internationally accepted and recognized, while the other not yet.
Sudan, once it was the largest country in Africa, was divided into two countries a decade ago: Sudan and South Sudan. There are still issues in the Darfur region. Especially after it removed its former leader, the country is governed by a transitional government composed of civilian and military generals. This made the country vulnerable to many issues. Most importantly, Sudan claims some of the western parts of Ethiopia, putting it into the border conflict context with Ethiopia. After they see the same trend in Ethiopia as other eastern African countries: further possible disintegration of the country. In Particular, it tried to capitalize on the recent internal conflict Ethiopia has experienced, maybe to divert public attention or more?
The most regional phenomena of Eastern Africa is The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), call it GERD context. It has brought Ethiopia into a direct conflict of interest with two downstream countries of Sudan and especially Egypt. Using the colonial-era treaties, Egypt claims almost 100% monopoly on the Blue Nile (Abay) river. Hence the dam is perceived by Egypt as a matter of Existence. It is believed that Egyptians have infiltrated for many centuries’ Ethiopian way of life in different ways to make sure that they do not have a concrete plan on the Nile water. The project is therefore taken with utmost concern by Egyptians. That is why they are interfering in the country at any cost. Even it allies itself via the western powers to interfere in the country they have manipulated the military wing of the Sudanese government to wage war in Ethiopia and claim the land where the dam is built as it belongs to Sudan. GERD is by far the most crucial reason for foreign interference to scale up in Ethiopia at this moment. As some claim, Israel is also supporting this concern of Egypt and supporting its agenda in some ways.
The local Context.
The main local context in Ethiopia is the reform that has surfaced in 2018. This has attracted both actors within the country and those mentioned in the regional and global context. As described on the13th of April, the internal conflicts that exist locally within the country have been the source for the foreign actors to be involved highly. As the reform is in its infant stage, and as many things are evolving to make a shape, with the advent of the coming historical election, the interference from the global and the regional forces has been intense.
First, the west undermines the coming election. Remember, one of the reform agenda is to undergo fair and free democratic elections as much as possible. Not necessarily a perfect election, but an election that is more credible than the previous five mostly veiled fake elections, with the exception of the one that happened in 2005 G.C.
The 6th General Election is perceived by the reform leader as the one that embarked on a new era in Ethiopia, or as the ruling party described like: “A capstone of the reform undertaking”. But the global actors want it their way and they undermine it by saying it does not satisfy the international standards or by threatening not to send observers. They have to make sure that the one coming out of this should be a weak subduing system for them. Not necessarily, as strong regional partners who can challenge them both economically and politically at the international stage by aligning with other competitive powers. No way for them! The current PM in Ethiopia is not providing them or granting them either. That is a concern for them. That is why they interfere with the internal affairs of the country.
Second, the recent conflict in the Tigray region seems far from over by the defeat of the old ethnic based party, TPLF, the darling of the west. But the truth is the great people of Tigray region are being exploited again as a sacrifice to come back to power. They are trapped. The government tries to make the region peaceful by eradicating the remnants. On the contrary, the supporters in the diaspora who are positioned in the powerhouses of the west are fighting intensively by controlling the narratives via the digital campaign and by using powerful people in the west. For these individuals, the Tigray region must continue to suffer so that they get the help from their bosses to come back to power. That is why we see direct intense Foreign interference in the country.
Third, the ethnic-based disagreements and conflicts in the country attract regional actors like Egypt, Sudan and others to be involved highly. They tiptoedinto that conflict and wanted to get their interestbetter served, no functioning dam in the country that threatens their water usage. It is believed that most of the conflicts in the country are designed and funded mainly by Egypt. Whether it is social media, media, or weapons, logistics, all are funded by them. Those who are trying to divide the country under the pretense of their ethnic freedom in the country use this as an advantage. It is like a symbiosis relationship. They help each other with their courses. They seem to be there for the long term. That is why intense interference in the internal affairs of the country.
Simplified models or frameworks like these ones can help us understand complex problems. That is, to identify the actors who are playing the real game, and why they are acting the way they do, and how they do it and so on. So that we are able to understand how to respond to them and play the game like a good chase player: control the center of the game, set up your pieces as effectively as possible, and so on.
BY WENFIT TERARA
The Ethiopian Herald May 21/2021
