During the last couple of years, agriculture in the horn of Africa has suffered a lot from unprecedented level of desert locust infestation. While the damage sustained so far is formidable, preventing the possible outbreak of the swarm in the upcoming months is also a serious issue.
Dominique Burgeon, FAO’s Director of Emergencies and Resilience, said the huge desert locust swarms in 2020, some as wide as 60 kilometres, had not been seen in decades, threatening food security in a region where many were already going hungry.
Surveillance and response led to 1.6 million hectares of land being treated. As a result, more than three million tonnes of cereals, valued at approximately $940 million, were protected: enough to feed 21 million people for a year.
“We can say that huge progress has been made, capacities of the countries have been tremendously augmented…but yet the situation is not over”, he told journalists.
“We have made a huge effort, we are much better prepared, but we should not be complacent. We should not relax.”
Keith Cressman, FAO’s Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, said Cyclone Gati in December brought heavy rains, creating the conditions for new swarms to form in eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia.
Locusts began migrating south to northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia when the waters dried up, as experts had predicted.
“We had forecasted this in October. We had provided early warning to both countries to expect this shortly after mid-December, and that’s indeed what happened”, he said. “And since then, they have been arriving nearly every day.”
The locusts are young now but will mature, and reproduce, in the coming months. FAO anticipates a new generation will emerge in early April, coinciding with seasonal rains and the planting period in Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
Desert locusts are also breeding further north, on Somalia’s coastline on the Gulf of Aden, with new swarms likely to begin forming in late February.
“This is a cause of concern, and this is also why it’s extremely important that the control operations…are not disrupted”, said Mr. Cressman.
According to reliefweb.org five National Societies – Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Uganda – were allocated start-up funds to enable initial activities including assessments, training and engagement in locust surveillance, and reporting. However, major delays were experienced in the start-up of activities, thus reducing the time to complete within the planned timeframe.
Some planned activities, such as the provision of crop seed, could be undertaken in 2020 and were delayed until the next rains in early 2021.In addition, while the locusts situation has improved, there still remains a local need to combat locusts during this season.
This Operations Update allows the five National Societies to make the following changes to the operation. Accordingly they should extend the operation timeframe to 30 June 2021 to allow for completion of activities including modifications to cater for the emerging food insecurity crisis.
Completion of the livelihoods support needed due to locusts and the compounding and emerging issue of food insecurity expected due to rainfall deficit leading to low production in the January to February harvest. Completion of livelihoods protection activities for the most affected people, especially in areas affected by multiple threats of locusts, floods, COVID-19, and food insecurity.
Eastern Africa experienced a locust invasion starting from November 2019 when the dangerous migratory pests crossed into the region in large numbers. What started as an outbreak eventually covered larger geographical areas developing into an upsurge and causing serious concerns on the food security and livelihoods situation of the region.
The ongoing locust invasion in East Africa has been described as the worst in 25 years for Ethiopia and Somalia, and the worst in 70 years for Kenya. The desert locusts move in large numbers and can multiply in numbers by a factor of 20 every three months.
This is a major cause for concern as they can destroy large areas of vegetation and crops, thus threatening food security and livelihoods of affected populations and the consequences might be massive. Experts have predicted increased cross border movements of the locusts in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, potentially aggravating an already precarious food security situation.
During 2020 the swarms continued to invade and spread, matured and laid eggs in Ethiopia and Kenya. Hatching occurred in north east Somalia. In February 2020 swarms continued in Kenya and reached Uganda, South Sudan and the way to Tanzania. Widespread hatching and bands in Kenya. Due to widespread hatching a new generation of swarms formed in Ethiopia and Kenya in March 2020. In April more swarm matured and laid eggs in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Yemen.
In May yet another generation hatched and band formation in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Yemen. In June a second-generation swarm form in north west Kenya and swarm formed in Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen. In July more swarms form in north west Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen. In August the swarms mature in north east Ethiopia, while immature swarms persisted in north west Kenya and north Somalia.
In September widespread hatching and band formation could be seen in north east Ethiopia and Yemen, while immature swarms persisted in north Somalia and north Kenya. During the end of the year the swarms continue the widespread breading in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.
Since beginning of 2021 desert locust swarms are continuing to decline in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia as a result of ongoing control operations. However, due to good rains in parts of north Kenya and southern Ethiopia which could allow current swarms to mature and lay eggs. This is likely to give rise to hatching and the formation of hopper bands during May.
According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FOA) even though the situation continues to improve, it is paramount that all countries sustain their current survey and control efforts in reducing existing swarms as well as detecting and controlling any breeding in the coming months.
FAO have already adjusted their response plans to June 2021 to reflect the ongoing and projected locust impacts on food security and livelihoods. The Regional Desert Locust Alliance, which is tasked with monitoring the collective responses to the locust crisis, has also adjusted its timeframe to the end of June 2021.
Currently there is still immature swarms in Ethiopia and a few elusive small swarms that persist in Kenya. The continuation of the decline of the current upsurge depends on rainfall and control operations during the spring and the summer. If the only limited breeding occurs in Kenya and Ethiopia until June, then the situation is likely to return to normal by Autumn.
BY STAFF REPORTER
The Ethiopian Herald May 1/2021
