The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a project associated with the wider economic implication to Ethiopia than it is to Egypt. This is mainly due to the little energy production capacity of the country— a situation that has significantly been affecting the provision of quality education and health services and whatnot.
The GERD is both about fulfilling basic services and also national pride. Half of the Ethiopian population is still living devoid of electric coverage whilst the rest suffers from recurrent power interruptions.
This simply explains why Ethiopians at home and abroad have been purchasing domestic bonds to support the flagship project regardless of their political orientations since the GERD’s inception.
Any further delay to complete the dam will incur Ethiopia a huge loss of revenue from hydropower sales to service the debts and will create public disappointment. On the other hand, research shows that the GERD is expected to reduce 86% of the siltation and sedimentation of dams in Sudan and Egypt. Moreover, the location of the GERD puts it in a better situation to save water that could have been lost to evaporation. The annual average loss of water to evaporation at Aswan High Dam from Lake Nasser is estimated to be 15 billion cubic meters.
A further addition to the problem of water scarcity is the agricultural investment abroad initiative of Saudi Arabia in 2009 that targeted to grab land and water in Egypt and Sudan to achieve food security at home. Beyond promoting unilateral investment programs, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also jointly announced the ‘Strategy of Resolve’ a couple of years ago to get their food and feed demands met through forging strong economic, political and military cooperation. The pan-Arabism nationalism in Egypt in particular served a fertile ground for the Gulf countries to invest in billions in the cultivation of water-consuming crops such as wheat, maize, alfalfa, and others.
Egypt in Toshka valley alone gave water concessions to few companies that consume one-tenth of Egypt’s 1959 proclaimed ‘historical quota’ from the Nile. I think the political establishment in Egypt is shamelessly arguing to maintain this colonial status quo presenting it as a question of survival for the poor Egyptians when it is to feed the Khaleeji.
The ‘strategy of resolve’ initiative also necessitates Gulf companies to export more than half of their produce from Sudan, Egypt, and other land-grabbed countries back to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This threatens the food security of the poor people, causes huge loss of water, and, in Sudan, it led to the public unrest that
overthrew the Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir government.
We spent years, trying to calculate and justify how insignificant the effect of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is to downstream. We shared hundreds of important documents about different aspects of GERD’s project. In many various forums and roundtables, we reiterated our strong desire to transform our economy and fulfill the basic needs of our people. We have been speaking with calm assurance, we explained in numbers and figures. Our intentions have always been clear and succinct; reducing the burden of poverty for the poor.
The invitation for tripartite negotiation is a clear manifestation of such a cooperative and positive intention to grow together. Despite our constructive spirit and attempt, the past decade has been a stern test of our relations due to the launching of the GERD.
Egypt, in a clear show of defiance and disrespect to collective growth, has ignored the basin-wide request to put their signature on the Cooperative Framework of Agreement paper (CFA). Instead, it demanded to veto decision making in the basin over Nile affairs and maintain a colonial-era appropriation of water share in a clear violation of a sovereign state’s economic, social and political interest.
As we raise the issues today, they have trashed the CFA into the bin and would only opt for solving the Nile water issues through a trilateral round table and mischievously. Ethiopia’s call is not seeking its share of the Nile water. The call is to develop the river system. It is to promote regional cooperation by boosting trade and integration.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a national flagship project to Ethiopia that is kept close to our hearts. The recurring
electric power interruptions we experience every day are a personal reality affecting our daily life. And we expect GERD to address it. It is with this assumption and friendly gesture that Ethiopia has been working hard to justify the importance and urgency of completion of the project.
However, the latest developments from post-Washington trilateral virtual discussions indicate unwillingness from the side of Egypt to get our message right. Our brothers seem to ignore our cordial gesture to move a step forward to lift our people from starvation and poverty.
This could have been easily acceptable from a fair and equitable use point of view. But, the progress so far as we follow the trends unfolds quite the contrary. Our brothers and sisters who quenched their thirst with our water threatened us to go for war and sarcastically requested us to come to a reason.
The way to war is not the way to a lasting resolution. The rush to the conflict has never solved issues. It rather complicates and worsens relations. The path Egypt follows will not do any benefit to the basin but more aggregation and harm spoils the diplomatic and political relations with Ethiopia and others. If an invitation to war is Egypt’s ultimate resort to solving the GERD issue, I think Ethiopians are no lesser combatants to defend their interests. With such an option, we will all sink together but Egypt drowns deep.
The price Ethiopia paid for friendship, cooperation, and collective development of the Nile basin is immense. My poor country has sponsored flights, hosted guests, and spent years in dialogues hoping an all-inclusive and fruitful closure is reached by all states and non-state actors in the Nile basin. It is not because we were able to afford the cost. It is just because we value and support the peace and tranquillity as well as the prosperity of our sisters and brothers in the basin. As the rows between Ethiopia and Egypt get tense and rooms for agreement shrink, the negotiation seems far from consensual closure.
The chances of agreeing over the implementation of effective strategies of operation over GERD seem very slim. Now, it is time for Ethiopia to stop partying with mad cows in the basin. We have issues at home that require our sincere and serious attention. Hence, the best way to manage further leeching off the Nile is to revert to quarantine mode and act in isolation.
Ed.’s note: Samuel Tefera Alemu (Ph.D.) is an Assistant Professor at the Center for African and Oriental Studies and Associate Dean for Research and Technology Transfer, College of Social Sciences, Addis Ababa University is reachable through samuel.tefera@aau.edu.et
The Ethiopian Herald JUN 19, 2020
BY SAMUEL TEFERA ALEMU (PHD)
