ADDIS ABABA – IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) announced yesterday that flood risks to continue across East Africa and tropical storm expected to bring strong winds and light rains to Puntland and Somaliland.
In a press release it sent from Nairobi to The Ethiopian Herald, the regional center indicated that a tropical storm named KYARR has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to reach Puntland and Somaliland in 4 to 5 days.
“The affected areas will experience strong winds and light rains,” it added. East Africa rainfall is sensitive to the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns, “which is in its strongest positive state since 2006 and is bringing heavy rains to the region,” said ICPAC.
Although it is difficult to attribute the source of any floods or other weather impacts to a single cause, the heavy rains currently experienced in the region are likely associated with this positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state, it added.
Recalling the damage caused by heavy rains and flooding in property and livelihoods in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Kenya in recent times, the center predicted that higher than usual rains are expected to persist throughout November and December.
It also advised all stakeholders to take the necessary measures to mitigate the potential impacts. According to the regional center, overall, the current forecast presents positive prospects for increased crop yields for major cereals in the equatorial and southern agricultural areas of the region as well as improvement in pasture, range and water resources for livestock. In the northern parts of the region where the crops were in advanced stages of maturity, the increased rainfall activity poses the risk of interrupting crop maturation and harvesting.
“The risk of flooding is high and wet conditions might increase the risk of crop fungal and bacterial disease outbreaks, and livestock diseases such as Rift Valley Fever in disease-prone regions. If the wet conditions continue beyond November-December, the usual cessation dates, there may be challenges with harvesting and post-harvest crop management, and this could lead to significant post-harvest losses in both grain quality and volume,” it said.
ICPAC is a specialised IGAD institution which covers IGAD members’ states plus Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi with the mission of building resilience of communities in the Greater Horn of Africa through the provision of quality climate services.
The Ethiopian Herald, November 1/2019
BY STAFF REPORTER
