According to the Environmental Protection Authority, understanding the variability and anticipated future changes in climate—particularly patterns of rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration—is crucial for planning and designing effective adaptation strategies. Warming is projected across the entire continent, with detailed studies supporting these trends in all regions.
In Africa, projected temperature increases are expected to exceed the global annual average, with mean increases of 3–4°C over the coming centuries. In Ethiopia, the southern region and its western margins are expected to experience a decrease in rainfall, especially during the critical winter harvest months. In contrast, East Africa is likely to see an increase in annual mean rainfall. However, projections remain uncertain for regions such as the Sahel, the Guinean Coast, and the southern Sahara.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is anticipated to have a particularly severe impact on agriculture. The sector is predominantly rain-fed and based on subsistence farming, making it highly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. Events such as crop failures, outbreaks of pests, and the drying up of water sources could force farmers to rely on foreign aid. In the absence of such support, many may be compelled to migrate, facing additional physical and psychological hardships.
On the other hand, excessive rainfall can also pose serious threats. Flooding may devastate livelihoods by destroying crops and livestock. If farmers are settled near rivers, the consequences can be catastrophic.
Gebru Jenber, a climatologist working as a consultant for various firms, emphasizes that the impacts of climate change are projected to worsen in the future. Rising temperatures and increasingly unpredictable precipitation patterns contribute to a more complex and challenging climate landscape. Among the many adverse effects of global climate change, threats to agriculture are particularly concerning.
It is important to note that Ethiopia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible. Nonetheless, the country is significantly affected by the consequences of climate change—consequences largely driven by the carbon-intensive development paths taken by industrialized nations over the past century. For their industrialization, countries such as those in Europe, along with the United States and Japan, heavily relied on fossil fuels to power production, often with little regard for the environmental impact of these anthropogenic activities. These practices have persisted in their pursuit of sustained economic growth.
Today, the political and military dominance of these developed nations is largely rooted in their economic strength. Meanwhile, poorer countries—whose economies depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture—struggle to combat poverty under the growing burden of climate change, making it increasingly difficult to achieve their development goals.
Moreover, agricultural output—often the primary source of export revenue for many of these nations—has declined over time due to the compounded effects of climate change. This reduction in productivity undermines their economic resilience, perpetuating the cycle of poverty.
According to Ethiopia’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC, national temperatures could rise by between 0.5°C and 3.6°C by 2070. Projections for the period 2070–2090 suggest an average annual temperature of approximately 26.92°C, with average daily rainfall expected to decline by 3.5% by the end of the century. Notably, the increase in minimum temperatures is more pronounced, at an estimated rate of 0.4°C per decade. In contrast, precipitation levels have remained relatively stable over the past 50 years.
According to Gebru, the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Ethiopia is significant, meaning that large-scale climate trends do not always reflect local realities. The projected increase in inter-annual precipitation variability, combined with rising temperatures, is likely to lead to more frequent droughts. Additionally, forecasts for 2024 suggest that the intensity and frequency of heavy rains and floods will also increase.
Studies by the National Meteorological Services of Ethiopia indicate that the average minimum and maximum temperatures have risen by approximately 0.25°C and 0.1°C, respectively, over the past decade. Meanwhile, rainfall has shown extremely high variability over the past 50 years. Although precipitation models offer contradictory projections—some suggesting increases, others decreases—most climate models agree that Ethiopia will experience rising temperatures in the coming years.
Projections estimate that temperatures in Ethiopia could rise by 1.7–2.1°C by 2050 and by 2.7–3.4°C by 2080. Moreover, recent studies show a growing frequency and spatial extent of droughts—a trend expected to persist. In some regions of Africa, particularly northern and eastern parts, cropland losses could reach up to 15% within the next 30 years. Globally, two-thirds of the land surface may face severe limitations for rain-fed agriculture due to adverse conditions such as temperature extremes, irregular precipitation, unsuitable topography, or poor soil quality.
Other assessments predict significant agricultural challenges across Sub-Saharan Africa. Arable land is expected to face severe environmental constraints, reducing crop production in Eastern Africa (by up to 2.4%), the Central African Republic (by up to 1.2%), and Western Africa (by up to 1.7%). Southern Africa is projected to be the most severely affected, with about 11% of its total agricultural area—approximately 265 million hectares—at risk due to climate change-induced constraints.
Ethiopia, like many African nations, is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Drought remains the country’s most significant climate hazard, closely followed by flooding. Recurrent droughts pose a serious threat to rural livelihoods and food security. Recent trends show a marked increase in both the frequency and severity of these events. The Ethiopian Meteorological Agency has reported that future rainfall patterns are expected to be increasingly erratic. A study by the UNDP also warns that climate change in Ethiopia will likely result in extreme temperature and rainfall events, leading to more severe and prolonged droughts and floods.
Given the country’s heavy reliance on agriculture for both income and food security, erratic monsoon rains can have devastating effects on the majority of the population. The Ethiopian Meteorological Authority has observed that a single season of significantly reduced rainfall can lead to depressed food consumption that persists for several years. Furthermore, the agro-ecosystem is highly sensitive to rainfall variations and has limited capacity to adapt to climate-related damages.
As a result, even minor climatic changes can have outsized impacts on the country’s socio-economic conditions. Although agriculture has been identified as a cornerstone for Ethiopia’s sustainable future, it is currently under threat from climate change and variability. These risks are expected to have serious consequences for the nation’s economy, particularly in the areas of agriculture and food security.
Existing research already highlights the severe impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Shifts in average temperature, rainfall intensity, and seasonal distribution are contributing to natural hazards such as droughts and floods. Looking ahead, climate change is projected to further reduce crop yields, impair production potential, and increase the risk of famine. Therefore, it is imperative that the government, along with development partners, invest in climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk-reduction initiatives.
BY ABEBE WOLDEGIORGIS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 9 APRIL 2025
