According to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change /UNFCCC/ the worlds’ climate has been changing for centuries. The influences of weather change together with growing international common temperature and changes in precipitation are undeniably already affecting ecosystems and biodiversity. Many scholars believe agriculture is the maximum susceptible area to climate change.
Developing countries exceptionally depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Yet agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and weather variables like temperature, precipitation, and climate extremes that are precursors of drought, flood and severe storms.
Even though its impact is excessive on agriculture there is variation in vulnerability depending on location, adaptive potential and different socio economic and environmental factors.
According to the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, the effect of anthropogenic climate change is believed to be grave in continents like Africa that have contributed almost nothing to it.
The outcomes of global warming can jeopardize many years of improvement efforts, particularly in the poorest regions of our planet. This is attributed to the continent ‟slow adaptive capability, over-dependence on agriculture sector, marginal weather and lifestyles of many other stressors.
Agriculture accounts for about a 3rd of Africa’s GDP, employs approximately 60-90% of the total labor force and is most important source of
livelihood for poor people. In addition, most of poor Africans stay in rural areas, where they depend at once or indirectly on agriculture.
Climatic variability refers to the types of changes, magnitude and rate of the climate change that causes the impacts on the area of public health, agriculture, food security, forest hydrology and water resources, coastal areas, biodiversity, human settlement, energy, industry, and financial services.
According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by 1.8 degrees to 4.0 degrees Celsius by 2100. The sea level may rise by 30 to 60 centimeters. Climate variability will increase almost everywhere. Northern latitudes will experience more rainfall; many subtropical regions will see less.
Assortments of studies have investigated historical trends of climate change and variability in Ethiopia. For example, a 0.2°C to 0.28°C rise per decade in the average yearly maximum temperature between1980 and 2020 was reported.
Agriculture in Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rain. Its geographical location and topography and a low adaptive capacity, make the country highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Poverty in Ethiopia is a chronic problem and about two-thirds of its 130 million people live on less than $2 a day income. The recent mapping on vulnerability and poverty in Africa put Ethiopia as one of the countries vulnerable to climate change with the least capacity to respond.
Crop production in Ethiopia is affected by failure of rains or occurrence of successive dry spells during the growing season. Food shortages resulting from adverse weather conditions are not new in Ethiopia.
However, food shortages have increased in severity, with frequent shortages in recent years. The degree of vulnerability varies between the different regions based on wealth, technology, availability of infrastructure and institutions, potential for irrigation, and literacy rates.
In general, vulnerability to climate change in Ethiopia is highly related to poverty. Integrated rural development initiatives aimed at reducing poverty can play a role in increasing adaptive capacity to climate change.
The major effects of climate change on crop production include changes in regular crop planting times, length of growing season and shift in crop type or cultivars. Crop production in the country is highly correlated to the rainfall patterns. Rainfall variability and recurrent drought are leading to frequent crop failures, loss of life and property.
Climate change exhibited through higher temperature, rainfall variability, water scarcity, flooding, drought and displacement, negatively impacts agricultural production and causes breakdown in food systems. The current climate change has many impacts on different agricultural activity.
The warming and rainfall trend poses its impact on crop production. On the other hand, this situation has created good opportunities for weeds to stay in the cropping land so that it later emerges with crops and out-compete them.
Erratic precipitation period has also increased an opportunity for crop pests drought and delay in the onset of rain led to poor grass regeneration/forage deficit, water shortage and heat stress on livestock, and consequently increased the mortality of the livestock, vulnerability to diseases and physical deterioration due to long distance travel for water and pastures.
The recently conducted integrated quantitative vulnerability assessment for seven Regional States of Ethiopia by using biophysical and social vulnerability has found that decline in precipitation and increase in temperature are both damaging to Ethiopian agriculture. Unseasonal rainfall also results in seed drop, ripened crops germination, crop desiccation, delay and spoilage of harvested crops.
A recent report by Ministry of Agriculture indicates that, unseasonal rain cause serious loss in Meher crop in lowlands. The Assosa town located in western part of Ethiopia is highly affected by climate change and variability. According to the report, the worst impact of climate change in the western part of Ethiopia is due to drought and flood. The overall natural resources base of the region is highly degraded.
This pervasive situation together with the current global climate change aggravates the vulnerability of the community to climate change impacts. Various reports agree that the region has been facing droughts that have occurred in the country indicating susceptibility of the region to climate change. Thus, people in the region face a variety of shocks and become vulnerable. The recent study also showed that a decreased crop duration of wheat because of warming and a reduction in the yield of rice by about 5 percent.
A simulation model of production for cropping systems showed that the combined effect of increased carbon dioxide and climate change would reduce crop yields by 10–40% if current management practices were not amended.
Demis Chanyalew (PhD) is an agronomist. As to him, to overcome the challenge, new cropping systems which are resilient and adaptable to changing climatic conditions are required. More recently, elements of crop adaptation to extreme weather events have been explored with genotypic variation and adaptability to cope with several of the negative impacts on and adapted productivity. While Ethiopia has always suffered from great climatic variability, including droughts that have contributed to hunger, climate change is set to make the lives of the poorest even harder.
Small-scale farmers are more vulnerable and likely to endure the most of the negative impacts of climate change. This is partly due to the traditional management practices that they adopt. The expected crop yield losses due to climate change will therefore affect their already low level of income, and left without any alternative source of income, the situation would lead to increased poverty and food insecurity.
BY ABEBE WOLDEGIORGIS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 30 MARCH 2025
