In 2024, the world faced an unprecedented surge in extreme weather events that disrupted lives, economies, and ecosystems. Record breaking heatwaves scorched continents, and erratic rainfall patterns led to devastating consequences for food security, water resources, and human health. Europe recorded its hottest summer on record, with temperatures soaring above 40°C in many regions.
Meanwhile, parts of North America, South Asia, and Africa witnessed sudden and extreme shifts in rainfall, resulting in severe droughts and catastrophic floods.
One of the most devastating examples of these extreme weather events occurred in California, where wildfires ravaged vast areas, fueled by a combination of intense heat and dry conditions.
The wildfires were exacerbated by a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 45°C, leading to the destruction of thousands of acres of land and displacing thousands of people. This disaster underscores the growing threat of climate change and the increasingly erratic nature of weather patterns around the world.
In Africa, unpredictable weather patterns are becoming an even greater concern. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the continent has experienced a 1.5°C rise in average temperatures since the 1950s almost double the global average.
As a result, heat waves are intensifying, particularly in arid regions, with parts of East Africa experiencing temperatures exceeding 35°C for extended periods. At the same time, countries in the Horn of Africa, such as Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia, are facing fluctuating rainfall patterns that cause both severe droughts and catastrophic floods.
In 2024, Kenya recorded a 40% reduction in long rains, severely affecting food production, while parts of Ethiopia endured devastating floods, displacing millions.
For the people of East Africa, where agriculture sustains over 60% of the population, these shifting weather patterns are not just abstract statistics they are a matter of survival.
The increasing frequency and unpredictability of these weather events make accurate weather forecasting more critical than ever. Yet, despite the growing demand for improved forecasts, East Africa continues to face significant challenges in this regard.
Floribert Vuguziga (PhD), Senior Meteorologist in charge of Climate Services at Rwanda’s Meteorological Agency, explains the complex situation: “In many parts of East Africa, weather conditions are below normal, leading to droughts, crop failures, water scarcity, and other challenges. These can trigger conflicts, food insecurity, and health crises. Accurate forecasting is essential to mitigate these effects.”
He continues, “When you know what to expect, there’s time to plan and adapt. Forecasting allows us to prepare for challenges ahead, helping us implement solutions to minimize the impact of natural disasters.” However, forecasting in East Africa remains a challenge due to the region’s complex geography and climate.
The influence of the sun, which drives all atmospheric and climatic activities, is crucial in understanding weather patterns. East Africa’s location in the tropics further complicates predictions, as sudden weather changes can occur with little warning.
Hannah Wangari Kimani, a meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, emphasizes these difficulties, noting the challenges presented by the region’s diverse topography from highlands to lowlands and the influence of water bodies like Lake Victoria and the Indian Ocean.
“Global climate models often fail to capture the nuances of East Africa’s topography and water bodies,” she explained. “This makes it harder to accurately predict the weather and respond effectively.”
The unpredictability of intra seasonal drivers, such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclones, further complicates forecasting. These phenomena, although short lived, can significantly affect seasonal weather patterns.
The MJO, for example, can only be predicted within a few weeks, making it difficult to plan for its impact on long term forecasts. Similarly, tropical cyclones can be monitored but are challenging to predict with precision, especially over extended periods.
Pedram Rowhani, a Reader in Geography and International Development at the University of Sussex, stressed the complexity of weather forecasting in East Africa, citing the interplay of various factors sunlight, topography, water bodies, and unpredictable weather drivers. “Achieving accurate forecasts is incredibly difficult due to the region’s unique characteristics,” he said.
Despite these challenges, artificial intelligence (AI) offers a promising solution for improving weather forecasting in the region. AI has revolutionized both flood and drought forecasting in recent years, and ongoing research and funding are enhancing the accuracy and accessibility of these forecasts.
“AI has already made significant progress in the region,” said Rowhani. “The increased capacity of local institutions to implement AI solutions ensures that East Africa can develop its own forecasting tools without relying on external sources.”
Local expertise is critical in this development. “Empowering people in the region to use AI technology for forecasting ensures they are not dependent on outside sources,” Rowhani explains. “This will help foster sustainable development and make climate adaptation more effective.”
Philip Omondi (PhD), Project Manager at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, echoes this sentiment. “AI is the way forward,” he noted. “However, it’s essential to remember that AI must be guided by human expertise. While AI is powerful, we must ensure that it is tailored to the unique needs of East Africa.”
In addition, it’s important to recognize a stark disparity in how developed and developing countries handle climate induced disasters.
When extreme weather events strike in developed nations, governments typically have the financial resources and infrastructure to respond swiftly, saving lives and ensuring that communities recover relatively quickly.
These nations often have well-established disaster response systems, including emergency funds, advanced healthcare, and resilient infrastructure. In contrast, developing countries, particularly those in East Africa, struggle to manage the aftermath of such disasters.
The lack of sufficient resources, both financial and infrastructural, severely hampers their ability to protect lives and recover effectively. In the face of extreme heat, floods, or droughts, many communities in these countries are left vulnerable, as governments often lack the capacity to provide immediate relief and long term support.
This not only jeopardizes the lives of individuals but also threatens the economy. Agriculture, which sustains millions in East Africa, is hit hardest, and economic recovery becomes a prolonged and uncertain process. The impact extends beyond the immediate loss of life, affecting livelihoods, food security, and broader socioeconomic stability.
Omondi stressed that while advanced forecasting technologies like AI offer hope, they must be coupled with the right policies, infrastructure, and resources to ensure they can be fully leveraged in the context of developing countries’ challenges.
“Effective disaster preparedness and response in East Africa require a comprehensive approach that includes both technological advancements and capacity building efforts,” he concludes.
BY KALEAB GIRMA
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 12 FEBRUARY 2025
