The economic prospect of Grand Renaissance Dam

GERD as one of Africa’s grand hydropower dams will have the potential to position Ethiopia as a key player in regional energy production, with the ability to meet much of its domestic electricity needs and export surplus power to neighboring countries.

As it is clearly observed, the dam is strategically located on the Blue Nile River 100 meters above sea level, one of the Nile River’s two major tributaries (the other being the White Nile). The Blue Nile contributes about 85 percent of the total water flow of the Nile, making it critical for the river’s overall water volume. GERD’s construction near Guba in the Benishangul- Gumuz region of Ethiopia places it at the heart of the Blue Nile, providing Ethiopia with significant control over the river’s water resources, a matter of vital importance to the country and the region as a whole.

The Reservoir, created by the GERD, will have a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters of water. This makes it one of the largest reservoirs in the world. The size of the reservoir is crucial because it allows the dam to regulate water flow, enabling a consistent energy output for the hydropower turbines. The large storage capacity will also help manage seasonal fluctuations in water levels, ensuring a stable electricity supply year-round.

What sets GERD apart from many other major infrastructure projects is that Ethiopia has largely financed it on its own. Rather than relying on external loans or aid, the government has funded the project through government domestic bonds and public donations. This financing strategy reflects Ethiopia’s desire to maintain full control over the dam and its associated benefits.

The people of Ethiopia have played a vital role in funding the dam, with citizens contributing to national campaigns. This self-reliance is a testament to Ethiopia’s ambition for energy independence and sustainable development.

GERD’s construction has had a major impact on employment in Ethiopia. The dam project has provided thousands of jobs to local workers, from skilled labor to administrative and managerial roles. This has not only supported the Ethiopian economy but also contributed to the development of the Benishangul-Gumuz region, which had previously seen less industrial activity.

GERD’s construction has also helped develop the surrounding infrastructure, including roads and transport system, benefiting local communities and the country at large.

While it has brought the potential for regional cooperation, it has also sparked significant tensions. The dam has been a point of contention between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, both of which are downstream countries. The core issue revolves around the dam’s impact on the Nile’s water flow, particularly during the filling of the reservoir. Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply, has expressed concerns

that GERD could reduce the amount of water available to them. Over the years, the three countries have held numerous rounds of negotiations brokered by international bodies, including the African Union and the United Nations, to reach a consensus on the dam’s operation and water-sharing agreements.

For Ethiopia, the GERD is more than just a dam—it is a symbol national pride and sovereignty. The dam is viewed as a milestone of the country’s economic growth, self- reliance and ambition to harness its natural resources for development.

It has become a focal point of national identity, with Ethiopians perceiving the project as a crucial step towards breaking free from energy dependence and asserting their place on the African continent. It has united the Ethiopian people, who have supported the project with enthusiasm, and is often celebrated as a modern marvel.

It also indicates that how the country has prepared itself to bring better future to the coming generations and improve its global images and play pivotal role for regional economic integration.

Once completed, GERD is expected to significantly enhance Ethiopia’s energy production, not just for domestic use, but also for regional energy export.

The dam will allow Ethiopia to supply electricity to neighboring countries, including Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti and Tanzania. This has the potential to foster regional economic integration, creating energy markets across East Africa.

The electricity generated by GERD could also stimulate industrial development in these countries, leading to greater economic stability and cooperation and helps to meet their aspiration to develop green economy.

Compared to fossil fuel-based power generation, hydropower is considered a more environmentally friendly energy source. GERD, as a clean and renewable energy provider, will help reduce Ethiopia’s reliance on coal, oil, and gas.

The expansion of the utilization of renewable energy helps to save the nation badly needed hard currency allocated for the importation of carbon based none renewable energy. Reduce emission gas released from industries and transportation sector.

The beginning of electric powered transportation system including vehicles and trains further increases the nation’s efforts to mitigate global warming and climate change which has been a pressing matter for the developing countries including Ethiopia.

However, the dam has raised concerns about its impact on ecosystems and local communities. The removal of vegetation cover to create water bed in the dam might bring its own consequence. The filling of the reservoir could disrupt traditional river flows, affecting local agriculture and fish populations. Furthermore, while hydropower is a clean energy source, large-scale dams can lead to the displacement of people living near the construction site, and the potential loss of biodiversity is a subject of ongoing debate from some corner.

As the result, soil erosion and land degradation is exacerbated from time to time. The soil that has been taken by flood found its way to the dam which intern affects the power generation capacity of the dam and shortens its span. Therefore, soil and conservation work has to be a priority agenda for securing the nation energy generation capacity.

The government long ago has aspired side by side with achieving economic growth to attain structural change. Currently agriculture is the main stay of the nation economy. It is characterized by rain fed and subsistence and yet it is also the means of living of the 85 percent of the population. It is the major export earner which contributes about 69 percent to the export income and supply food at least at subsistence level yet the sector is vulnerable to climate change and global warming. Attaining sustainable development without transforming the economy is unrealistic.

To realize the aspiration, the government has been exerting its time and finance for the expansion of manufacturing. It constructed industrial parks and supplied the necessary infrastructure. Expanding this sector without supplying sufficient renewable energy is unthinkable. Therefore, it should be recognized that exploiting energy sources mean accelerating the nation industrialization process.

Expanding manufacturing serves to attract foreign investment, boost export, substitute imports, creates linkage with agriculture through utilizing raw materials, creates job opportunities to thousands, advances innovation and the role of the private sector in the economy.

Therefore, it should be understood that, in line with developing energy sources paying attention for soil and land conservation makes the development endeavor sustainable.

Since its inception in 2011, the construction of GERD has been marked by significant challenges. These include geopolitical tensions, technical hurdles related to the dam’s scale, and financial constraints. The dam’s construction has faced delays due to these factors, and it has at times been a point of international controversy. Despite these challenges, Ethiopia has remained committed to the project, and progress has steadily continued, with the dam expected to be fully operational in the near future. The dam stands as a testament to the resilience and determination of the Ethiopian people in the face of adversity.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) much more than just a major infrastructure project; it is a symbol of Ethiopia’s growth, self-reliance, and determination to reshape its energy future. Ethiopia has abundant natural resources which serves for harnessing of renewable energy including, Hydropower, Solar, Wind, Geothermal and others. So far the resource is not harnessed as the nation demands. Shortage of finance, technology and well trained manpower inhibited the nation not to do so. Therefore, the money generated from energy export to the neighboring countries can be invested to exploit the mentioned energy sources.

As the dam nears completion, it will not only play a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s energy sector but also have far-reaching implications for the wider East African region and the global energy landscape.

Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald

BY ABEBE WOLDEGIORGIS

The Ethiopian Herald December 12/2024

 

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