The Nile is not only the longest river in the world but also one of the most politicized. Very few rivers have been the subject of discussion in the UN Security Council, the premier global body responsible for maintaining international peace and security. Efforts in recent decades to achieve a fair and harmonious sharing of waters among riparian states have often been characterized by deceit, greed, and tensions based on historical claims and geopolitical maneuvering. But a cloud of hope has been brewing over the Nile since July this year. Future talks on the Nile seem to be focusing more on economics and conservation, shifting from confrontation to cooperation, from threats of war to proposals for cross-border investment.
At the heart of recent advancements is the progress made by the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), an initiative that promises fundamental change. After sitting idle on the table for over fourteen years waiting for compliance, the CFA was finally enacted on October 13, 2024, marking a decisive shift in the governance of the Nile waters.
More than four-fifths of the Nile’s water comes from the majestic Ethiopian river Abbay. This means that the source of the Nile is essentially the source of the Abbay. [It is quite confusing why so many writers, scholars, and news agencies like Reuters wrongly refer to Uganda as the source of the Nile] October is the optimal time of the year when thrill-seeking tourists can experience the power and splendor of the Abbay River by standing right at the edge of the waterfall where the air is filled with the deafening roar, mist and splashes of the Abbay water. Another thing has emerged recently that links the Nile inextricably with October. It is what happened on October 13 of last month.
This day holds a special place in the calendar of the upper riparian states. It is a day that marks a breakthrough in their decades-long quest for justice to guarantee their rights to a fair share of their most important natural resource, the Nile Basin. Undoubtedly, Ethiopia has always been the actor at the forefront of the diplomatic struggle to make what happened on October 13 a reality. It was none other than Ethiopian Premier, Abiy Ahmed who broke the news to the whole world of the big day.
“Today, 13 October 2024, marks the culmination of a long journey toward the equitable and reasonable utilization of the waters of the Nile, with the entry into force of the Agreement on the Nile River Basin Framework (CFA). This day will be remembered as a historic milestone in our collective efforts to foster genuine cooperation in the Nile Basin. The CFA’s entry into force strengthens our bond as a Nile family and ensures that the management and utilization of our shared water resources benefit all, for the good of all.” he wrote.
The CFA represents a multilateral effort by the Nile Basin states to create a sustainable and comprehensive framework for managing and utilizing the river’s resources. This groundbreaking agreement was born out of necessity, aiming to establish a legal and institutional groundwork to prevent conflicts and promote equitable utilization of the Nile’s waters. The CFA’s objective is not merely the peaceful sharing of a river but the foundation of a new era of cooperation among countries with historically divergent and even conflicting interests.
Central to the CFA’s enactment is the planned launch of the Nile River Basin Commission, NRBC. This body is envisioned as a cornerstone institution that will oversee the equitable and sustainable management of the river, ensuring all signatory countries have a say in its governance. However, the momentum was tempered by the postponement of the Second Summit of the Nile River Basin Heads of State and Government which was scheduled to be convened on 17th October 2024. It was a signal of both the complexity and the contentious nature of the Nile politics. Let us hope that the Egyptians had no hand in the undisclosed reason for the postponement of the summit, which is very unlikely. And let us not forget the Egypt-Ugandan military pact signed three years ago in Kampala. The pact would undoubtedly bring in so many enticing benefits to the Kampala authorities.
Obviously, not all Nile Basin countries are in agreement. Egypt and Sudan have been vocal in their opposition, standing firm in their historic claims to the river’s waters. These nations argue that the commission lacks legitimacy, as they view the current agreement as incomplete and inadequately ratified. Their futile attempts to delegitimize the commission are rooted in their selfish, outdated desire to maintain hydro-hegemony in the Nile basin.
The resistance from Egypt and Sudan was crystallized in a statement from the Egyptian-Sudanese Permanent Joint Technical Commission (PJTC), released even a day ahead of the announcement of CFA activation. In its statement, PJTC outright rejected the legitimacy of the NRBC which it said is constituted by only six of the Nile states.
Legal experts interpreting the PJTC’s position underscore that it is a baseless accusation that has no legal grounds, as the NRBC has fulfilled all the prerequisites as stipulated in the CFA document. PJTC also tries to undermine the CFA as incomplete, implying controversial sub-article 14b, under the title Water Security, which is left blank in the document. They deliberately overlooked the annex in the CFA document that adequately addresses the blank sub-article, stating that it shall be resolved by NRBC within six months of its establishment. The Sudanese and the Egyptians are desperately looking for pretexts to reject the commission as they are entrenched in geopolitical stances that reflect fears of diminished control and influence over the Nile.
Egypt’s and Sudan’s claims on Nile water are shaped by treaties they signed with each other and their colonial masters, apportioning the entire volume of Nile’s waters among the two excluding the other nine as if they do not exist. But now, the activation of the CFA disrupts this status quo, forcing Egypt to reconsider its approach to water management and foreign diplomacy within the Nile Basin context.
The Egyptians and the Sudanese should have the courage to face the new reality that Nile politics has entered a new era of cooperation rather than competition and that the future of the Nile will be determined and shaped by a multinational organization, the NRBC. They cannot overshadow the status and voice of this regional body in the global arena, unlike what they have done separately with other riparian states. The Nile is no longer for a few but will be harnessed for all riparian states.
Uganda, which is currently at the helm of the Nile Basin Initiative, should play a central role in steering this historic change. As the current leader and host of the upcoming summit, Uganda should ensure that the Commission is launched without further delay and act as a driver for cooperation.
Uganda’s leadership role appears to be in the middle ground in the broad spectrum of conflicting interests of the Nile states and is therefore crucial in navigating these troubled waters. The postponement of the summit until next year would give the Ugandan president ample time to make it clear to the Egyptians and Sudanese that they cannot afford to be excluded from the new commission, which will be established through due process involving the continent’s political body, the AU.
As stated in its founding agreement, CFA, the commission is expected to be a powerful authority on matters regarding the Nile Basin interims of politics, finance, and technology. The Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) would possess a wide range of capacities, including dispute resolution, rulemaking, data collection and management, identifying optimal water use measurements, and so on. Thus, NRBC would be powerful enough to effectively promote and coordinate cooperation among the basin states to ensure sustainable and good governance of the resources of the Nile basin.
The implications of the CFA for regional cooperation and water management are profound. By paving the way for a collective mechanism that allows equitable water shares to all riparian states, the agreement seeks to diffuse tensions and encourage cooperative development. It is a blueprint for turning potential flashpoints into opportunities for mutual growth.
The Nile River politics have irrevocably shifted. The hegemonic control once wielded by the lower riparian states, predominantly Egypt, is now being redefined. With the CFA coming into force, the power dynamics have transformed permanently. It is now the collective leadership of the Nile states that dictates the river’s future utilization. Egypt, disillusioned with the notion of ‘historical rights’, now faces the compelling reality of equitable sharing with upstream states. And joining the Nile family is not an option, but a must.
The future of Nile Basin cooperation hinges on the realization that collective governance and shared resource management are not only pathways to peace but essential lifelines in an era of climate change and regional instability exacerbated by the interference of world powers. The CFA’s activation is not the end but just the beginning of a challenging journey. For all Nile Basin states, the path forward lies in dialogue, compromise, and the commitment to shared prosperity. The era of unilateral dominion over the Nile basin is over; the age of collaboration has just begun.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 6 NOVEMBER 2024
