Several countries in the world, regardless of their any status, are exposed to recurrent natural disasters. They suffer from heavy rain falls, landslides, and overflow of rivers, storms, and unexpected weather changes. Being engaged in agriculture for their livelihood, many Africans, including Ethiopians are exposed to various kinds of natural disasters. Yet, as farmers and cattle raisers, they are the major contributors to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of their countries.
According to experts in the sector, agriculture contributes to high employment and income of the rural people. It is also a major earner of foreign exchange by providing outputs for export. Based on this reality, Ethiopia has adopted a strategy of agricultural development-led industrialization (ADLI). One of the objectives of this strategy has been poverty reduction through the generation of output, employment and income that would reduce poverty. This strategy also underlines poverty reduction and economic growth with emphasis on smallholder farming. This strategy is viewed as a means to improve the living standards of the Ethiopian people in general. However, agricultural production is mainly characterized by low productivity, poor access to land and inputs.
There is little capacity in the African regions, particularly the Horn region to avoid natural disasters that affected agricultural activities. There is insufficient knowledge in risk management, technology and skill to avoid or evade disasters. Added to these problems are poor infrastructure and underdeveloped institutions. The challenges mentioned earlier and the various constraints of development exacerbated the vulnerability of Africans, including Ethiopians. They are exposed to climate change, leading to food insecurity and social conflicts over accessing natural resources.
Studies reveal that chronic food insecurity affected the Africans, including Ethiopians, even in times of sufficient rainfalls. Most of the people do not earn enough income to access basic goods and services. Studies have also shown that crop cultivation and pastoral activities are very sensitive to climate changes. These changes have caused food insecurity and poverty in the African rural areas. The lives of rural people are closely linked to seasonal rainfall patterns, with hunger declining significantly after the rainy seasons. Yet, climate variability negatively impacts rural livelihoods.
Studies confirm that drought is the most destructive natural hazard in the Horn countries. Researchers suggest that climate change would reduce the GDP drastically, mainly through its effects on agricultural productivity and production. These changes also impede economic activities and aggravate existing social and economic problems. Thus, the Horn countries, including Ethiopia become vulnerable to drought, epidemics, and flood induced by climate change. This also entails pests, wildfire and landslide among others.
Studies indicate that these hazards occurred with varying frequency and severity. Some resulted in disasters and social conflicts, while the impacts of others were more localized. There have occurred several national and localized droughts in the past. The rural communities have managed most of these disasters using their own coping mechanisms. In the past several decades many major droughts had occurred affecting most parts of the Horn area.
The magnitude, frequency and the effects of droughts have increased through time. Also, the frequency of regional droughts caused severe food shortage affecting millions of people. Experts are of the opinion that the effects of drought are often combined with other disasters. Specially, migratory pest or locust infestation has been a serious problem in some parts of the Horn countries, including Ethiopia.
The prevalence of some crop diseases has also increased when climatic conditions were favorable for pests and locusts. Moreover, the increasing trend of disaster associated with drought and other hazards, was manifested in the increasing size of people demanding food aid. Several millions of people needed food assistance amounting to thousands of tons annually. There were also people who needed food assistance during normal years and these have been included in the productive safety net programs. Also, the number of people negatively affected by drought has been significant in most parts of the Horn region.
Both human and livestock epidemics are also induced by climate change shocks. Another shock induced by climate variability is flood. Rivers overflowing their banks have negatively affected people and their properties, especially in the lowland areas. Some of these floods have caused disasters which claimed the lives of several people. These floods also displaced thousands of people and destroyed their economic assets.
The Horn countries, being mountainous with rugged and steep slopes have faced extensive deforestation. Rains are sometimes heavy and torrential. Rivers converge in low basins causing huge flows of water. Studies show that the watersheds of the major rivers are highly degraded with small cover of vegetation, reducing permeation into the ground and increasing runoffs. In some years, unprecedented water flash and river flood disaster occurred during the winter season, with a devastating impact, damaging the livelihood and homes of people. Some of these people lost their lives and their productive assets worth millions of dollars.
The flooding due to river bank overflow has claimed the lives of several people and damaged the productive assets of thousands of people in most countries of the Horn, including Ethiopia. As mentioned earlier, drought, flood and epidemics, and conflict in these countries have also strong relation with climatic shocks. They caused scarcity of productive resources among rural community.
The climate changes induce shocks leading to communal conflicts. These social conflicts have been going on between different groups of people residing as neighbors. The causes of these clashes have mostly been shortage of arable land, grazing areas and freshwater along the borders of districts and villages.
The struggle for resource control has been the major cause of tension among the rural people in the Horn region. As a result, many people have lost their livelihoods, assets, and lives. Studies also show that other disasters like landslides, volcanic eruption and earth quake are categorized as non-climate ones. They mostly occur in some parts of Ethiopia causing damage to infrastructure, human lives, and livelihoods.
Though detailed information on the effects of hazards is very limited, there have occurred internal displacements of people due to conflict and climate change. The properties of these internally displaced persons have already been damaged. Climate change is considered as a variation in the properties of the climate system over a long time. Thus, average fluctuations in rainfall, temperature, and other factors over a longtime may represent climate change.
Experts suggest that variability may result from natural changes within the climate system. This is related to the major livelihood activities of the rural people in Ethiopia. These activities are crop production, livestock rearing, and natural resource extraction. Only a small number of the rural people are engaged in off-farm activities. Due to inherent link of these livelihood activities to natural resources, the rural people are mainly at the mercy of uncertainties caused by climate change, including flooding and drought.
In the previous decades, climate changes have been recognized as additional factor which will have heavy influence on the Ethiopian rural livelihood activities. The spatial distribution of impacts will vary based on the ability to respond to them. However, these impacts may be unexpected and appropriate measures may not be easily applied in advance.
Effects of climate variability on the agricultural sector are manifested directly on changes in land and water resources. These, in turn, lead to changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding, and storms. Climate change may result in long-term water shortages, worsening soil conditions, drought and desertification. They also cause diseases and outbreak of pests on crops and livestock. Climate change also raises sea levels and over flooding of rivers. Areas that are vulnerable are expected to face reduction in agricultural productivity and fall in crop yields. Increasing use of marginal land for agriculture activities may compensate for food shortage.
Experts believe that in the absence of relevant strategies to respond to climate change and variability, diverse negative impacts are expected. As a result, the likely effects of climate change on the agricultural sector may cause concern over the future food production in the Horn area. Early global estimates predict significant reduction in grain production due to global warming. Given the range of warming predicted, regional and local variations in agricultural production is expected to be high.
Experts predict that the worst impacts of warming will be in tropical regions. Globally, a spatial shift of crops and agricultural practices take place away from the tropics toward the temperate and polar regions. These events lead to losses in production in both the developed and developing countries. Dry land areas where rain and water shortages are the norm, they are likely to be among the most vulnerable. Declines in aggregate production are anticipated in most of African countries, including Ethiopia. Experts are seriously concerned that climate change is on the rise given the linkage of the agricultural sector to poverty.
It is expected that adverse effects on the agricultural sector will exacerbate the incidence of rural poverty. Also, low productivity in agriculture has negative effects on poverty stricken people of the Horn, including Ethiopia. Its effects are severe where the agricultural sector is an important source of livelihood for the majority of the rural people. It is revealed that the economic effect of climate change on the agricultural sector could comprise a large share of the GDP.
In Ethiopia, it is estimated that nearly 85% of the population is dependent on the agricultural sector. Moreover, its sub-sectors, such as crop, livestock, natural resource extraction, fishery, etc are vulnerable to climate change effects such as natural resources degradation, flood, diminishing household assets, etc.
With low technological and capital stocks, the agricultural sector is unlikely to resist the additional pressures of climate change. As a cause of rural poverty it poses immense challenges on rural households and social development in Ethiopia.
There should, therefore, be a realistic strategy of economic development that may reduce or minimize exposure of the Ethiopian people to natural disasters. Collaborative efforts are essential to resist natural disasters and rehabilitate the victims.
BY GETACHEW MINAS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 20 OCTOBER 2024
