Ethiopia is slotted among the countries that are the most vulnerable to climate change, according to the 2017 ND-GAIN index, which assesses a country’s susceptibility to climate-related disruptions and its readiness to improve resilience. Standing 163rd out of 181 countries, Ethiopia is the 23rd most vulnerable and the 30th least prepared nation.
This alarming position highlights an urgent need for concrete actions to reduce vulnerability and bolster resilience against the growing threats of climate change. The impact of climate encouraged various hazards such as droughts, floods, and rising temperatures poses a significant threat to the livelihoods of millions of Ethiopians, particularly the poor.
In the Horn of Africa, particularly Ethiopia faces significant climate challenges, including severe droughts, floods, and land degradation, which threaten food security for over 78% of its population that relies on agriculture, according to some studies.
Accordingly, Dozens of millions are at risk of hunger due to disruptions in the security of food and water caused by rising temperatures, changing patterns of precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Arable land is becoming desert, crops are not producing enough, and pure freshwater sources are being poisoned or running out.
Deadly infectious diseases are emerging and spreading more widely as a result of climate change. Additionally, it causes mass displacement brought on by climate disasters, which is already making it more difficult for countries to offer humanitarian relief. It also raises the possibility of armed conflict over scarce resources and heightens geopolitical tensions.
The Policy Research Institute, in collaboration with the Department of Developmental Economics at the University of Copenhagen, has recently completed a comprehensive study on Climate Change Prevention and Green Development in Ethiopia. The research, focused on various regions, including Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Southern parts of the country, Gambella, and the Dire Dawa administration.
The findings of the study reveal significant challenges posed by climate change, particularly the recurring issues of rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, drought, and flooding. These environmental changes are impacting the livelihoods of communities and the overall development of the country.
The country has a long account of devastating droughts, with notable episodes occurring between 1965 and 2015 that have led to severe humanitarian crises. The most catastrophic drought occurred during 1984-1985, resulting in the worst famine in Ethiopia’s history, claiming approximately 300,000 lives, the studies revealed.
According to the studies, between 1991 and 2008, Ethiopia lost a staggering 13% to 40% of its agricultural output due to climate change. More recently, the 2015-2016 El Niño drought was one of the worst in decades, leading to below-average rainfall and resulting in harvest failures affecting over 10.2 million people. Vulnerability to drought is especially pronounced in pastoral areas of the lowlands and densely populated highland regions, where food insecurity is prevalent.
Regions such as Afar, Somalia, Tigray and the lowlands of Oromia are particularly susceptible to climate shocks. These areas suffer from inadequate infrastructure and service provision, which exacerbates the impacts of recurrent droughts and floods. While some global climate models forecast increased precipitation in Ethiopia’s dry and wet seasons, regional studies indicate uncertainty in the direction of these changes.
Currently, findings suggest that climate change will lead to recurrent droughts and heavy rainfall, diminishing arable land and decreasing crop productivity. The studies revealed that the economic consequences of climate change are stark. Major droughts have over all reduced Ethiopia’s GDP by 1% to 4%, with projections indicating that future climate scenarios could result in an 8% to 10% GDP reduction by 2050.
The potential economic downturn threatens the country’s aspirations to achieve middle-income status by 2025 and is likely to hinder poverty reduction efforts. The agricultural sector, which supports the majority of the impoverished population, is particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. As agricultural outputs are projected to decline; commodity prices are expected to rise, further straining the livelihoods of those reliant on farming.
In light of these pressing challenges, Ethiopia’s government recognizes the urgent need for proactive measures to climate change. Recognizing the severity of the situation, the government is committed to implementing strategies aimed at enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerability. Also, the government has actively working to identify and address climate-related hazards.
In a related discussion, Professor Belay Simane from Addis Ababa University’s Environmental Studies department stated that the critical importance of continuing efforts in soil and water conservation and promoting a green legacy initiative.
He highlighted that while the Ethiopian government’s initiatives to combat climate change are commendable, there are critical shortcomings that hinder their effectiveness. He noted that the practice of planting saplings often occurs as part of a campaign, yet insufficient post-planting care and maintenance for these seedlings severely limit the success of these efforts.
The professor further stated that the significance of conducting thorough assessments of suitable planting places before initiating reforestation efforts. He also stated that the government’s tendency to overlook collaboration with experts in related fields further exacerbates the challenges faced in implementing effective climate change prevention programs. Without strategic planning and expert involvement, the likelihood of achieving the desired outcomes in combating climate change remains low, he said.
In his part, Tadesse Kuma (PhD), the Director of the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Research Center at the Policy Research Institute, emphasized the escalating impact of climate change, particularly on the agricultural sector, which is facing severe challenges. Countries such as Ethiopia, which are highly dependent on traditional rain-fed agriculture, livestock farming, and livestock products, are the most vulnerable to climate hazards.
Consequently, significant to protect the economy from severe negative climate impacts, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks, especially by building resilient smallholder agriculture through innovative policy measures, he said.
Efforts include investing in climate-smart agriculture, improving water management systems, and enhancing infrastructure in vulnerable regions. By promoting sustainable practices and building resilience, Ethiopia aims to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on its economy and the livelihoods of its people.
Tadesse (PhD), advocated for sustainable strategies to combat drought in Ethiopia, highlighting the need to prioritize mechanization and water-based development initiatives. He also stressed the significance of attracting investors to engage in irrigation development, particularly in lowland regions, and underscored the necessity of enhancing animal fodder and water resource management.
Peter Fisker (PhD), an expert in the department of developmental economics at the University of Copenhagen, stated that climate change remains a significant global challenge. He commended Ethiopia’s agricultural development initiatives and the progress made in promoting a green legacy initiative. He further advocated for the strengthening of irrigation development and the protection of natural resources as vital components in addressing the impacts of climate change.
Moreover, regional and international cooperation is essential. Collaboration efforts with global partners can provide the necessary resources and technical expertise to support Ethiopia’s climate resilience initiatives. Addressing climate change is not just an environmental concern; it is a critical component of Ethiopia’s development strategy.
Denmark has partnered with Ethiopia on research initiatives aimed at developing effective strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. Ambassador Sune Krogstrup stressed the urgency of the situation, noting that climate change poses significant risks, leading to increased humanitarian needs, job scarcity, and disruptions in food production. Additionally, the country has faced landslides exacerbated by climate conditions, complicating its challenges further.
Danish bilateral cooperation primarily focuses on modernizing the agricultural sector by supporting smallholder farmers. The cooperation aims to enhance food security and resilience, particularly for displaced populations and host communities, while fostering climate resilient livelihoods in forested areas. He further stated that Denmark remains committed to strengthening governance and promoting human rights in Ethiopia, ensuring a holistic approach to development in the face of ongoing climate challenges.
Prof. Belay called for coordinated and organized development efforts, emphasizing that sustained and collaborative action is essential for long-term success. Furthermore, while there are positive steps being taken, a more coordinated and informed approach is essential for Ethiopia to successfully address the pressing issues of climate change and foster sustainable development.
Together, these experts underlined a multifaceted approach that integrates mechanization, irrigation, and sustainable resource management to enhance resilience against the adverse effects of climate change in Ethiopia as well as the globe.
BY FIKADU BELAY
The Ethiopian Herald October 13/2024
