It is given, is it not? War breaks out or peace reigns, depending on the strategic decision of the leaders. When a leader changes his mind/strategy or is replaced by another, a breakthrough in the political landscape of the country he leads is likely.
For example, the limbo between Eritrea and Ethiopia, which remained unchanged for almost two decades despite international diplomatic efforts, suddenly changed in 2018, shortly after a change in Ethiopia’s leadership was announced. Unfortunately, the impressive progress made in reconciling and restoring relations between the two nations was reversed as there was no change on the other side of the border.
Similarly, until two years ago [under the former government of President Farmaajo], Somalia was undergoing a profound transformation characterized by comprehensive economic reforms, enhanced security measures, stringent transparency and anti-corruption policies, dynamic nation-building initiatives, ambitious infrastructure development and strategic policymaking. In terms of foreign relations, Farmaajo introduced policies that promote regional cooperation. Together with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy and Eritrean President Isayas, he even managed to forge a pact for a regional alliance, the so-called Comprehensive Tripartite Cooperation Agreement, which unfortunately only gave the people of the region a short-lived euphoria with the promise of sustainable peace and regional integration.
A political analyst in the Horn recently wrote: “Ethiopia enjoyed warm relations with the former government in Somalia. But later incidents have soured relations. First was that Somalia got new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, HSM, who bypassed Addis Ababa during a flurry of state visits he conducted soon after taking office and even before he formed his cabinet. He visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Turkey, Kenya, Djibouti, and Eritrea in May, June, and July 2020. Then, during a visit to Cairo, he waded into the controversy between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egyptian ruler el-Sisi hinted at a press conference that Somalia and Egypt saw eye-to-eye on the contentious dam”. This suggests that HSM’s hostile attitude towards Ethiopia was evident much earlier and well before the announcement of the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
With the change of leadership in Mogadishu, the shared regional vision of peace and prosperity has been eroded over the last two years and talk of cooperation has turned to confrontation. The man in charge in Mogadishu is now obsessed with finding excuses to denounce Ethiopia. In an article in the Economist, allegedly written by HSM, Ethiopia is blamed for the recent floods in some regions of Somalia. Surely he was inspired by his sponsors, the Egyptians, when he invented this ridiculous laughable accusation. While the Egyptians falsely accuse Ethiopians of jeopardizing their access to the Abbay River by building a dam, he accuses Ethiopia of flooding his territory with release from dam reservoirs.
HSM is a quintessential leader whose words and actions are getting increasingly divergent. The Somalis have relinquished the hope and faith in him for failing to deliver what he promised. In 2022, when he took the oath of office as the tenth president of Somalia, he introduced his motto: “Somalia at peace with itself and with the world.” Two years on, the Horn nation is the opposite of what he promised. Somalia today is epicenter of the political crisis of the Horn, continues to be a scene of terror and destruction almost regularly, and increasingly militarized with the involvement of foreign actors. Many analysts agree that Somalia is on a perilous Journey into uncertain future, being driven by the reckless decision of HSM, who is obviously under the hangover of the dictatorial regime of the former leader Siad Barre.
Prominent Somali scholars and legislators like Abdi Ismail Samatar describe HSM as a president who is always trying to pull the wool over peoples’ eye; and committed to grabbing as much power as he can away from the parliament the prime minister. They say HSM thinks he can shut every body’s trap, and is bent on what he call a political reform project which is actually building a political system that is absolute dictatorship.
“While his election 2 years ago did not gain widespread public support, the country’s elite viewed his second term as an opportunity for improvement. The top on the list of promises he pledged to the Somali people was strengthening peace and security. But what happened under his administration was the reverse. Al-Shabaab now managed to reclaim numerous territories previously lost in 2022 and early 2023, marking a significant setback for the government. During Hassan Sheikh’s two-year term, Somali military casualties, including high-ranking officers, reached unprecedented levels.” says an analyst
An old word of wisdom says a problem recognized is a problem half-solved. But HSM is in denial of the hard facts. He says he was winning the war against al Shabaab and ISIS. He is a leader out a touch of the reality on the ground. Moreover, he is making dangerous decisions that are certain to worsen the security situation in the nation.
For instance, the validity of HSM’s push to remove Ethiopia from the equation of the multilateral effort to set up a new peace mission as a replacement for ATMIS has been questioned and criticized by several independent scholars and military experts specializing in the Horn situation. Among these people, the Chief of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), General Michael Langley recently said: “In the ATMIS construct, one of the anchor and frontline countries was Ethiopia. So that’s what has me concerned. Ethiopia, especially in the South West State, and their contributions to the liberation and stabilization, has been valuable.”, he said, adding that the tension being brewed by HSM against Ethiopia with the backing of Egypt has helped the terrorist groups active in Somalia to revive and thrive, “I am concerned about the northern part of Somalia and ISIS growing in numbers, and also the possibility of foreign fighters growing there. In the past year, it’s probably grown, probably twofold. Now, I won’t give numbers, but I’d say it’s more than what it was last year.”
By far, one of the grave blunders HSM made, which has already proved to be counterproductive to peace-building efforts in Somalia, is the military pact he signed with Egypt. In a sense, the pact has made Somalia an Egyptian sight of an experiment for mixing Nile politics with the Horn politics. The pact has also become yet another agenda of division among the Somali people. The influx of military hardware and the upcoming joint military training would surely further heighten the tension in the Horn, elevating the potential for outbreak of conflict in the region.
According to an American-based security intelligence organization, Egypt has already sent 1,000 soldiers along with arms and ammunition to Mogadishu between August 27 and 29. Egyptian officials would ship armored vehicles, rocket launchers, artillery, anti-tank missiles, radars, and drones as part of the defense deal. Egypt and Somalia are also planning to hold joint military exercises in Somalia. The exercise would involve ground, air, and naval forces which is a bold provocation to Ethiopia. Nobody knows for sure in whose hands these military resources would ultimately end up with.
All this is happening under the leadership nd direction of HSM and following his military deal with Egypt. Military experts say that the timing and nature of Egypt and Somalia’s recent military cooperation signal both countries’ intent to pressurize Ethiopia and indicate that their military buildup is not tied purely to the AU peacekeeping mission.
“Egyptian troops have arrived months before the planned AU transition at the end of 2024. Furthermore, the AU and UN will not finalize the new mission’s funding, concept of operations, and other troop-contributing countries until this month. This timing discrepancy indicates that the soldiers are not primarily there as part of the planned peacekeeping mission. The anti-tank missiles Egypt plans to send are also more geared for a conventional conflict, as al Shabaab does not use sophisticated vehicles enough to require anti-tank weapons.” say the experts.
So in the coming weeks or months, if HSM is not able to come to his senses and realize the dangerous direction his driving his nation, the rising tension in the Horn would potentially explode into some kind of incident. Emboldened by the Egyptians, perhaps HSM may consider trying direct or indirect crazy provocations that would certainly bring disastrous and devastating blows to Somalia’s fragile state.
In the speeches and interviews he made during his endless international travels, HSM has falsely accused Ethiopia of violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. Interestingly enough, no Journalist or panel participant has ever asked him whether he respect the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. The truth is Ethiopia has never had a history of territorial ambition against Somalia. HSM seem to be oblivious to the fact that Ethiopia is the closest and most important neighbor to his country, and it continues to the present day to be an indispensable security provider to his regime.
It is a public secret that Villa Somalia would have been stormed by Al Shabaab and he would have been airlifted to Cairo, had the war-hardened Ethiopian peacekeepers pulled out of Mogadishu and surrounding areas today. The million-dollar question that analysts asking now is whether the Somali state would survive the shock of a “political bomb” being experimented on by HSM and el Sisi. Would this experiment put an end to the dream of building a stable Somali state and irreversibly shatter Somalia into several pieces?
Here is what a Somali commented to a recent tweet by HSM about his published article on the Economist. “We are so doomed with your governance, May Allah save us from your bad decisions” .This was one of the scores of the comments that denounced the president. After a few days, the post along with all the comments is gone without trace.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 9 OCTOBER 2024
