The Horn of Africa is at a critical juncture, characterized by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions involving Somalia and Egypt. As the specter of Al-Shabaab looms larger, these tensions threaten to spiral into a broader regional conflict, drawing upon historical grievances, political ambitions, and nationalist fervor.
Thereupon, it is paramount importance to delve into the current dynamics among these nations, exploring Ethiopia’s contributions to peacekeeping in Somalia, the implications of Egypt’s military presence coupled with the rise of Al-Shabaab, and how these factors intertwine with Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea.
Ethiopia has been a prominent player in peacekeeping efforts in Somalia for over a decade. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have been engaged in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its successor, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), aimed at stabilizing the anarchic landscape wrought by decades of civil strife and bolstering the Somalia federal government against the threats of terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab.
Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia was perceived not just as a commitment to regional stability, but also as a strategic necessity to curb the influence of Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups along its border. However, Ethiopia’s role in the peacekeeping mission has been challenged in light of its recent activities concerning Somaliland.
According to documents from AMISOM, at least 4,000 Ethiopian troops operate as part of ATMIS, to counter the threat of Al-Shabaab. Ethiopia’s military presence has, at times, been met with criticism, especially as tensions escalated following agreements perceived as encroaching on Somalia’s sovereignty. The recently announced military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia, alongside the planned deployment of Egyptian troops, has exacerbated these tensions, sparking concerns regarding Ethiopia’s security interests.
While Ethiopia announced the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, which involves leasing coastal land, Somalia has started viewing this agreement as a direct affront to its sovereignty, prompting calls for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops stationed as part of AMISOM. This is interpreted wrongly by the Somalia side.
Somalia’s leadership has demanded an end to Ethiopian military operations within its borders, further complicating Ethiopia’s mission in the country. The Somali Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, has stated that without the annulment of the MoU, Ethiopian forces cannot participate in future missions, jeopardizing regional security efforts.
In recent weeks, Egypt has significantly ramped up its military presence in Somalia, threatening the region. Following a security pact with the Somalia government, Egypt delivered military aid for the first time in over four decades. Egypt’s engagement is primarily motivated by its longstanding concerns over Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.
Egypt’s military deployment in Somalia is viewed as a strategic maneuver designed to counterbalance Ethiopian influence in the region. Recent reports of Egypt dispatching up to 10,000 troops to Somalia and the simultaneous supply of weapons signify a substantial escalation in their military engagement.
Egypt’s involvement is not merely rooted in a desire for increased security within Somalia; it also reflects Cairo’s long-standing concerns regarding Ethiopia’s impact on Nile waters and the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. As Ethiopia expands its military footprint and ambitions in the Red Sea, Egypt seeks to safeguard its interests by strengthening alliances with the Somalia government, making it imperative to monitor the evolving dynamics between the three nations.
The unexpected, yet, the growing relationship between Egypt and Somalia hints at the possibility of a proxy conflict emerging in the region. Analysts have voiced that Egypt’s military deployment to Somalia is reflective of a larger strategy to curtail Ethiopian ambitions in the Horn of Africa, especially with Ethiopia’s aspirations for both regional influence and maritime access.
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, has sought to elevate its geopolitical standing through access to the sea. The Memorandum of Understanding signed with Somaliland is part of this enduring quest, signaling Ethiopia’s willingness to engage in agreements to secure its economic needs, Ethiopian officials argued. A direct route to the Red Sea would provide Ethiopia not only commercial advantages but also a strategic foothold in regional maritime politics. The urgency for maritime access is underscored by the projections of Ethiopia’s population reaching over 120 million, amplifying the necessity for expanding trade opportunities.
The Horn of Africa is experiencing a significant flux of geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the interplay between Somalia and Egypt. The current situation is mainly compounded Egypt’s military involvement in Somalia and the rising influence of Al-Shabaab, in the region, has led to a complex web of tensions that needs a comprehensive understanding.
Amidst these geopolitical tensions, the resurgence of Al-Shabaab looms as a significant threat. The group has perpetrated numerous attacks against Somalia and foreign military forces, complicating the security situation.
The inability of Somalia to effectively combat Al-Shabaab poses a direct risk not only to its national security but also to the broader region. The ongoing struggles for power among the Somali federal government, the regional autonomy of Somaliland, and external influences from Egypt create a fertile ground for the resurgence of insurgent activities as factions vie for power, dominance, and legitimacy.
Different foreign Media reported that the recent attacks in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, suspected to be carried out by the al-Shabaab group, have escalated in September 2024. One of the most recent incidents involved twin bomb explosions that killed at least six people and injured several others. One explosion took place near Somalia’s National Theater, close to the president’s office. Although Al-Shabaab has not officially claimed responsibility, they are notorious for frequent bombings targeting civilians, government officials, and security forces in Mogadishu and other regions of Somalia.
Al-Shabaab continues to destabilize the region by employing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and launching assaults, particularly at government targets and crowded areas. These attacks aim to undermine the Somali government and security efforts. The group, which controls significant parts of rural southern and central Somalia, poses a severe threat to peace and security in the country, even as Somalia increases its counterterrorism efforts in collaboration with international forces.
However, Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia is not a recent phenomenon; it has a complex history stemming from territorial disputes and security concerns. Historically, the two nations have been interlinked through shared ethnic populations and conflicting political interests.
Ethiopia has played a vital role in Somalia politics, especially since the disintegration of the Somalia State in the early 1990s. The Ethiopian military intervened multiple times, ostensibly to combat threats from extremist factions that had arisen in the chaos. The most notable instance was Ethiopia’s military intervention in 2006 during the rise of the Union of Islamic Courts, which reignited armed conflicts and led to a more fractured political environment in Somalia.
Amid these tensions, Ethiopia’s long-standing contributions to peacekeeping missions in Somalia are at risk of being overshadowed. Subsequently, through recognizing the shared challenges posed by Al-Shabaab and the potential for economic collaboration, Ethiopia and Somalia can move toward a more stable future, one where mutual interests set the stage for cooperative security and development.
All things considered, the rising tide of tensions in the Horn of Africa, fueled by military ambitions, historical grievances, and the influence of terrorist groups, necessitates urgent attention. Ethiopia’s peacekeeping contributions cannot be overlooked amid this crisis.
As Egypt embraces military engagement in Somalia, the fabric of regional relations is continually tested. For the sake of security and prosperity, strategic diplomacy must guide the way forward. A nuanced understanding of these dynamics is vital not just for the involved parties but for the broader international community that seeks stability in a historically volatile region. Fostering dialogue and cooperation rooted in historical realities and present-day challenges is essential in the quest for peace, security, and resilience in the Horn of Africa.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
BY HIZKEL HAILU
The Ethiopian Herald October 6/2024
