History seems to repeat itself. The same forces who were out to follow the footprints of their colonial masters under the inherited credo of La Grande Somalia or Soomalida Gaalbe or Greater Somalia in 1960, 1964 and 1977 are again taking the stage in a dress rehearsal to contain and chock Ethiopia, not ready to learn from history.
Ethiopia has rendered immense to peace keeping across the world. The irony is, some nations in the neighborhood and afar are plotting to rob the nation of peace which is a major prerequisite for the country’s development. It seems that some countries are posing with red eyes when Ethiopia registers the minimum economic development in the country. This nation does not deserve to be intimidated by proxy wars.
The people of Somalia have already staged strong resistance against later comers who pose as “peace keepers but busy with their own agenda of destabilizing the Horn and ultimately igniting a regional war the consequence of which they are not sure. Ethiopia has 60 years history of peace keeping in practice and now is responsible to keep the peace of 60% of Somali territory. Taking a position of forcing out Ethiopia is indeed self-suicidal. How in the world can Egypt whose population is suffering from inflation, economic downturn and poor social services claim to be a champion of peace in Somalia?
The whole thing boils down to neo-colonial containment on a country that has a shining history of peace keeping? The Somali leadership is openly declaring that it intends to arm groups in Ethiopia who wish to take power by force when her own house is gradually tearing apart.
On the other hand, wherever Egyptian forces have set in the results were war, massive displacement, and mitosis of terrorist forces, hunger and influx of refugees. Suffice it to mention Libya and Sudan. This should not be repeated in Somalia or South Sudan.
The peoples of Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Eretria, South Sudan and Sudan are craving for peace; they need better health services, balanced nutrition, education and better social services and not guns. Those who claim to bring peace on the Horn should do it peacefully and not at a gun point. Somalia cannot be at peace by working on destabilization in Ethiopia. Peace is collective and mutually beneficial particularly for nations in the most vulnerable part of the world- the Horn of Africa. The population in the region needs tractors, seeds, and fertilizers, medical services to withstand drought, food shortage, epidemics and malnutrition.
OCHA Report issued in March 2024 indicates that “The Greater Horn of Africa faces a convergence of increasingly recurring and intensifying climate crises, mainly drought and flooding, conflicts, disease outbreaks, and economic shocks. These, including the impact of El Niño conditions, are driving millions of people into displacement, acute food insecurity and malnutrition, public health emergencies, and destitution. The region accounts for nearly 64 million people in need, one fifth of the people in need worldwide, mostly in Sudan and Ethiopia. And yet the humanitarian funding remains severely low. Urgent humanitarian resources, climate crisis mitigation measures, peace and security resolutions, and durable solutions, are desperately needed to avert large-scale humanitarian catastrophes in some areas.”
On the other hand, it is necessary to avoid “cry wolf” policy which refers to repeated false alarms or exaggerations regarding a potential threat, which can undermine credibility and weaken the effectiveness of future warnings. When applied to the Horn of Africa, such a strategy could involve overstating dangers or threats to national security or regional stability to justify actions like military interventions, political maneuvers, or foreign involvement.
In addition, to avoid a “cry wolf” policy and strategy in the Horn of Africa, a few key approaches should be considered:
Governments and organizations must base their security and foreign policies on clear, verified data regarding threats such as terrorism, ethnic conflict, or external interference. Avoiding exaggeration helps maintain credibility both domestically and internationally.
Countries in the region should engage in open dialogue with their neighbors and international partners, addressing concerns honestly and preventing unnecessary escalation of conflicts. This builds trust and prevents misunderstandings that can arise from exaggeration or misinformation.
Clear, consistent, and truthful communication with the public and international bodies is vital to prevent the loss of trust. Repeated alarms that do not materialize into actual threats can lead to skepticism and inaction in times of real danger.
By promoting collaboration among the countries of the Horn of Africa such as through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) nations can work together to address common threats like terrorism, drought, and political instability without resorting to alarmist policies.
Focusing on both security and socio-economic development can help address the root causes of instability in the region, making exaggerated threat narratives less necessary.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
BY SOLOMON DIBABA
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SATURDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2024
