Provocative interference in the internal affairs of countries of the Horn of Africa is not to be tolerated. The people and governments of the Horn countries have been committed to peaceful coexistence that promotes economic and social development. They are focused on raising the living standards of their people who had suffered from the yolk of colonial and post-colonial exploitation except Ethiopia of their natural resources.
Being the major source of the Nile River, Ethiopia, has been cooperating with all countries in the sub-region, including Egypt, in the development of the basin. Egypt, however, has been claiming all the waters of the Nile River unilaterally for its own economic development. As a major source of the river, Ethiopia deserves to have access proportionate to the needs of its population, which is the second largest in Africa. But, Egypt turns a blind eye and deaf ear to this fact and to the obvious natural endowment of Ethiopia.
In its thousands of years of independence, Ethiopia had been facing numerous external challenges, which it had been able to defend itself from. Just to mention a few, it had repeatedly defeated the colonial occupation forces and the alien intruders. Egypt falls in the second category of intruders which it had ventured with a wrong calculation. Emperor Yohannes IV, who was a strong, progressive Emperor of Ethiopia, had successfully repelled threats from Egypt repeatedly.
Of course, the Egyptian feeble attempt had been externally pushed just to end in failure and shame. These events had been referred to in history as the victory of the Ethiopian people and government over alien proxies and surrogates. The Ethiopian people have proven themselves heroic, gallant and courageous when it comes to facing an arrogant and infantile aggressor. This is proven in several battle fronts within Africa and elsewhere, including the Korean war.
Recently, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia has warned that anyone intending to invade his country should think about it seriously before doing so. The reason for that has been any attack would be repelled without any hesitation. His warning came at a time of rising tensions with neighboring Somalia and Egypt. Somalia has considered the MoU on maritime signed between the Ethiopian government and Somaliland in January, 2024 as an act of “aggression.” It has responded by creating military ties with Egypt. It is on record that Somaliland broke away from Somalia more than three decades ago. But, Somalia considers it as a part of its territory.
Just to add fuel to the fire, Egypt has been delivering military equipments to Somalia. With such adventurous move, it has tried to hide its long-term interest of controlling the Nile River by engaging and weakening Ethiopia in a fight of attrition with its neighbors. It is very obvious that diverting Ethiopia’s developmental effort would benefit no other country in the region.
It is on historic record that Egypt has been involved in a long-running contention of its own with Ethiopia’s decision to construct the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. To make proper identification of the river, the Nile River comprises of the Blue Nile and the White Nile, the former contributing 85% and fully originating from Ethiopia. The White Nile which originates from other riparian African countries contributes a small share. The two tributaries of the Nile River join in Sudan.
The Blue Nile is vital to the livelihood of Egypt and Sudan, as it supplies most of the water. This has created conflict between Ethiopia and the two countries that are located downriver. They depend on the flow of water from the Blue Nile. Every aspect of life in these countries, particularly in Egypt, depended on the river. The Nile provided food and resources, land for agriculture, a means of travel. It is also critical in the transportation of materials for industrial projects and other large-scale undertakings. It is a critical lifeline that literally brought life to the desert. This contribution of the Nile to Egyptian economic development has been fully appreciated and supported by Ethiopia.
Following the recent MoU entered by Ethiopia and Somaliland, Egypt has reacted negatively. It has delivered a shipment of military aid to the Somali army in Mogadishu, said Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement last Monday. Earlier to this, the Ethiopian PM said that the East African nation had no intention of creating conflict. He also said, “Those who are afar and nearby” should know that “we usually embarrass and repel those who dare to invade us”. He added, “Anyone intending to invade Ethiopia should think not just once but ten times because one great thing we Ethiopians know is [how] to defend ourselves.”
Earlier, Somalia has been angered by landlocked Ethiopia’s decision to reach a deal with Somaliland to give it access to sea. In this situation, Egypt has sided with Somalia and supplied it with military weapons and equipments. Ethiopia reacted to this by warning that it must stop meddling in the Horn of Africa and that it must abandon its “aggressive approach” towards the hydroelectric dam on Abbay River, which is at the heart of the conflict between the two countries for years.
Egypt took the issue to the UN as it filed a complaint against the dam construction, GERD, by Ethiopia. In response to this complaint, Ethiopia has rejected what it calls “a litany of unfounded allegations” from Egypt. It is on record that the litigation between the two countries started in 2011 when Ethiopia begun the construction of GERD on Abbay, within its boundary. But Egypt refused to appreciate the dam project that contributes to its development by holding and preserving excess water for agricultural development in the riparian states.
Ethiopia sees the GERD as a project for prosperity, while Egypt considers that it will imperil its economy. Belittling AU’s effort to resolve the disputes over GERD, Egypt took the matter to the UN Security Council which stated that the issue should be resolved at the regional level.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt have worsened as the latter was forging closer ties with Somalia. Egypt has declared a new security pact with Somalia, which will let Egyptian troops station in Somalia and operate directly with their Somali counterparts. The stated objective is to strengthen regional security in line with the AU stabilization force in Somalia. This deal takes place when tension and instability heightened in the Horn region. This deal has also been strongly objected by Ethiopia, claiming that interested actors are operating to destabilize the region.
Ethiopia’s objection has been made immediately after the bilateral meeting between the leaders of Egypt and Somalia. The major bone of contention between Ethiopia and Egypt is rooted in the Nile water. In 1959, Egypt and the newly independent Sudan signed the Nile Waters Agreement, seeking to govern and control the water flowing through the Nile River. Ethiopia, which is the major source of the water was not, however, present at the meeting that led to the signing of the deal.
It is on record that with the Nile River’s flow on the territory of Sudan secured by treaty, Egypt could develop its Aswan High Dam in 1960. According to experts in the field, the dam was a developmental factor for Egypt. It could unlock the agricultural potential of the country, generating hydroelectric power.
Similarly, Ethiopia looked for the same type of developmental project with its GERD, a mega-project on the Blue Nile. Like any other dams, the GERD retains a certain amount of water to fill its reservoirs and turn its turbines. The dam is designed based on the amount of water available to downstream countries at a rate roughly equal to the volume of the reservoir. Thus, experts in the field have confirmed that the completion of the dam and filling of its reservoir does not cause any disaster for Egypt. The dam allows the Ethiopian government to use the Nile water only according to its own developmental interests.
Experts reveal that the geographic scope of Ethiopian and Egyptian competition may be expanding as their conflict on water becomes widespread. After Ethiopia signed the MoU with Somaliland, Egypt expressed its open support for Somalia, as it is a fellow Arab country.
By cooperating with Somalia, Egypt tries to increase pressure on Ethiopia. Another national support for the dam originates from the Ethiopian Somalis who are interested in the economic development of their region. In this situation, experts are of the opinion that regardless of rising Ethiopian-Egyptian tensions, a full-blown war is unlikely to break out. The two countries are separated by the Sudanese territory that stretches over 800 kilometers. This makes a land incursion through war-torn Sudan and the Sahara Desert impossible. It is known that Ethiopia has no direct sea access, lacking naval advantages with which to intimidate Egypt.
Aerial attack is the only feasible and practical military option for Ethiopia. Large air attacks would have to cross airspace of neighboring countries, which is currently unpractical option. On the other end, Somalia is surrounded by an Islamist insurgency by Al-Shabaab and its supporters. Also, the mountainous central region of Ethiopia serves to limit the level of intrusion and control by its local and external enemies.
Generally speaking, geographic location limits the types of responses that every country has at its disposal. However, this situation may lead to the conduct of proxy war or limited conflict, which is more likely than a full-scale war. In this situation, experts think that Ethiopia would only have Somalia as a significant potential proxy. It is revealed that the Somali government has depended on local militias.
It is noted that Egypt endeavors to encourage sectarian tensions in Ethiopia. This may lead to the fulfillment of its ultimate goal of destabilizing the oldest independent country in Africa. However, the Ethiopian government would definitely take severe measures on any externally instigated chaos and unrest. It does not tolerate the slightest provocation that affects its sovereignty. In this situation, an Egyptian incursion into Ethiopia from Somalia should remain at bay.
The attempt by Egypt to station its military equipments and troops in Somalia under a recent deal is provocative and confrontational to the Horn countries. These countries, including Ethiopia and Somalia have the ultimate goal of enhancing economic development and raising the living standards of their people. They need only external economic support that precludes weapons of destruction. However, Ethiopia is determined to defend its interests and that of its close neighboring countries for maintaining peace, law and order in the region. In so doing, it prevents provocative interference in the region from any country.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
BY GETACHEW MINAS
The Ethiopian Herald September 27/2024
