Egypt’s ambitions in the Horn of Africa are shaped by various strategic and geopolitical objectives. The Horn of Africa, a region that includes Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, has been a focal point of international interest due to its location along one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a critical passage through which approximately 15% of global trade ships transit. The significance of the Red Sea lies in its role as a conduit for the transfer of goods from the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to Europe and America.
For many years, powerful nations have sought to extend their influence and control over the region by forging alliances with countries in the Horn of Africa. Some nations have established military bases and stationed troops in the area, with the United States, France, Russia, China, and the United Arab Emirates, for instance, having a military presence in Djibouti. These military installations, which include naval ports, air force bases, and training centers, underscore the strategic value of the Horn of Africa.
However, despite its strategic importance, the region has been plagued by wars, drought, and famine, challenges that are rooted in the legacy of colonialism and compounded by internal problems. Among the Horn countries, Ethiopia stands out as relatively peaceful and prosperous. It has played an active role in regional peace and security, sending troops to neighboring nations and making significant sacrifices to promote peace and stability in the region.
Recent developments, however, have created tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. Following an agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the Somali government has undertaken actions that conflict with Ethiopia’s national interests, further aligning itself with Egypt. This situation has raised concerns for the Ethiopian government, prompting close monitoring of the situation.
Egypt’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly its involvement in Somalia, is driven by several key interests. These include controlling the Red Sea trade routes, expanding its influence over maritime gateways, and building a formidable naval presence.
Additionally, Egypt aims to shape the political landscape of the Horn of Africa in its favor. Beyond these objectives, Egypt’s desire to prevent any threats to its control over the Nile River is a significant motivation.
Ethiopia, being the source of the Nile, poses a challenge to Egypt’s historical dominance over the river’s waters. In pursuit of its colonial-era aspirations, Egypt has been accused of supporting armed groups to undermine Ethiopia’s stability.
At present, Egypt appears to be capitalizing on the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland by positioning itself as an ally of Somalia. It has provided various destructive forces with weapons and engaged in propaganda efforts. Egypt’s involvement in Somalia, seen as part of its broader strategy to destabilize the Horn and hinder Ethiopia’s development, warrants close scrutiny.
The ongoing military cooperation between Somalia and Egypt must be viewed in this light, as the potential for a crisis looms due to external interference. After the signing of a military agreement between Egypt and Somalia, Ethiopia has been closely monitoring the situation, especially in light of the arrival of Egyptian military aircraft in Mogadishu following the Somali president’s visit to Cairo in August.
While the details of the agreement signed in Cairo remain unclear, Ethiopian authorities, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the nation’s security apparatus, are urged to remain vigilant.
Egypt’s willingness to deploy up to 5,000 soldiers as part of a newly formed African Union force by the end of the year signals its desire to assert influence in Somalia. This move, however, is seen as detrimental to regional peace and stability.
Ethiopia, which has been a key partner in combating the Al-Shabaab terror group, linked to al-Qaeda, has contributed significantly to Somalia’s fight against extremism. Egypt’s limited involvement during Somalia’s crisis contrasts sharply with Ethiopia’s proactive engagement, raising questions about the motivations of Somali leaders aligning themselves with Egypt.
Ethiopia’s peace and national interests are safeguarded through both internal and external efforts. At a time when national unity is more important than ever, Ethiopians must remain vigilant and address internal challenges through dialogue, while focusing on protecting their country’s interests. To counter Egypt’s potential actions in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia should explore several strategic responses: Ethiopia must ensure that the Somali central government does not adopt positions that conflict with Ethiopia’s national interests. Cooperation between Ethiopia and Somalia should be prioritized to maintain regional stability.
Egypt could potentially arm extremist groups, including al-Shabaab, in an attempt to destabilize the region. This would turn the Horn of Africa into a hotbed for terrorism and criminal activities, with the ultimate goal of disrupting Ethiopia’s peace and stability.
In addition to military and proxy efforts, Egypt may also seek to apply economic pressure on Ethiopia. Ethiopia must be prepared to respond to such measures by strengthening regional alliances and bolstering its ties with neighboring countries to resolve tensions within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
The role of IGAD, particularly under the leadership of Secretary-General Workneh Gebeyehu, will be crucial in mediating political tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia’s positive role within IGAD is well-known, and the current political climate presents an opportunity to advance Ethiopia’s national interests. Furthermore, Ethiopia should intensify diplomatic efforts to expose Egypt’s destabilizing actions and secure positive support from international partners, particularly institutions such as the United States, the European Union, and the African Union.
In summary, Egypt’s involvement in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia, is driven by its desire to control strategic trade routes, expand its naval presence, and undermine Ethiopia’s influence, particularly regarding the Nile River. Ethiopia must counter these efforts by reinforcing regional alliances, engaging in proactive diplomacy, and working towards peace and stability in the region.
BY ELIAS GETNET
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 25 SEPTEMBER 2024
