In the past decade, some of the coup d’états in Africa have been undertaken in its Western part, a region well known for its tendency towards military mutiny and rebellion. These military mutinies have deposed the heads of states and presidents just to be replaced by military leaders.
Historians have recorded that only in 2021; there were six coup attempts out of which four were successful. The causes of these increases and upsurges may be found in the instability of the region that has extended across the sub-region. The question of legitimacy linked to many of the elected leaders has become a reason for mutiny. Thus, electoral accessions to power have been vigorously questioned, rejected, and disclaimed by the electorate in many West African countries.
Lack of security, as noted by Aly Tounkaram, is “fertile ground” for coups, as does the “lack of integrity of leaders”. The long security crises across West Africa have led to the subordination of growth and development goals to security issues. The experience of these countries revealed that both economic growth and delivery of security have failed. The effect of such failure has engendered social and economic unrest in the sub-region.
As would be expected, internal conflicts in African countries, including Ethiopia, have unlocked the door to alien forces meddling, particularly from the superpowers. The historical role of the colonial masters as guarantors of security across West Africa has been openly challenged in the former colonial countries. The former colonial powers had an old habit of intrusive political, economic, and military action taken against their former colonies. Also, they impose the use of their currency that critics consider as a vestige of colonialism. The former colonial powers argue that they maintained the use of their currency on former colonies solely to assist them.
Recently, many countries in the sub-region of Africa have decided to bring to an end their military ties with their former colonial masters. They have demanded the colonial troops to leave their countries. Some countries have developed anti-colonial sentiment since their military dethroned their former leaders and took power by force. There have been a series of anti-colonial protests, with demonstrators condemning their former exploiters.
Following military coups, former colonial troops have withdrawn from their former colonies. The military juntas have revoked military cooperation agreements with former colonial masters. In the past, they had developed “local collective security” initiative to intervene where problems arise. Currently, the region looks for different external players to resolve its issues. Experts have noted that several foreign countries were conducting military operations on African soil.
Both the Eastern and Western powers have established their military bases along the borders of the Horn of Africa. This has made the region exposed to future proxy wars to be conducted by the superpowers. The big powers have large military establishments in some African states, advancing their security interests through providing training to these countries. These powers also conduct special military operations, including the gathering of intelligence and counterterrorism activities in the continent.
Former colonial powers have well-established military presences in their former colonies. At the same time, non-colonial powers have been expanding across the Sahel in Africa. These powers are trying to intervene in the unoccupied non-colonial countries such as Ethiopia. The withdrawal of former colonial powers leaves an open space that is being filled by the mercenary group, led by the superpowers.
Wherever there is a political crisis or coup in Africa, the “mercenary groups” pushed their paramilitary forces as the solution to security crisis. These groups declared that their fighters are able to restore peace, law and order by eliminating terrorists. They are proud of preventing terrorists from hurting the civilian population in Africa.
According to the former conflict-monitoring group that traces political conflicts and violence, the Wagner Group, a mercenary force, is entrenched across Central and West Africa. In these regions the group has been training local militias. It has also propped up fragile governments allied with the superpowers in exchange for profitable mineral exploration rights. Some research institutes reported that the group had also sent mercenary forces to the Middle Eastern countries. The superpowers have used this force to take advantage of lack of stability and security in Africa.
Reports by international research institutes reveal the extent to which superpowers exploit political vacuums created in Africa. Usually some powers withdraw from an African country infested with all kinds of political, economic and social problems. However, another power waiting for such an opportunity quickly sends its weapons and mercenary groups into that country. Before withdrawing, the former power used its strong political and military influence in the African country for decades.
The relationship between the former colonial power and the so-called independent African country failed to help in making progress in terms of stability, security and economic development. One superpower exploits the withdrawal of the other, at a time when armed terrorist remained dangerously active and threatened their former colonizer. The so-called armed terrorists are actually local fighters who are driven by the desire to be fully independent from the residual colonial intruders.
One superpower replaces another with ferocious, vicious and violent means. The replacing power initially assists the current African government to consolidate and prevent rebel groups from entrenching their control. In an opportunistic move, the external mercenary group begins to assist the weak government.
The non-colonial power fully exploits the failures of the former power. The mercenary group, therefore, acts as the most important proxy in some African countries. It provides security for weak African governments, facilitating the political and diplomatic influence of the superpower. In so doing, it gains access to lucrative mining assets, industrial firms, and agricultural enterprises developed by the former colonial power. According to the international report, the new power takes advantage of all economic opportunities in the country that used to be exploited by the former colonial power.
The new power has embraced the military regimes in African countries by providing them with security assistance, diplomatic backing, and military strategies. It sends advisors that provide information in advance for preventing military coups in these countries. It also provides the friendly country with a group of mercenaries to combat local opposition groups and fighters. The new power also delivers arms shipments to the mercenaries under its pay.
In the process, the security situation may continue to deteriorate, with the insurgency spreading in some parts of the African countries. These blatant external forces become challenges to the other superpowers entrenching their dominance in Africa. This military confrontation is accompanied by trade wars between these powers. These powers compete for precious rare earth minerals in the African countries, including Ethiopia. These powers have been using debt obligations as a “tool of soft power” on these African nations.
These nations have become a focus of attention for mineral exploration and exploitation by the superpowers. They are endowed with large mines of diamonds, gold, iron ore, bauxite, phosphate, and uranium. When these governments are challenged by domestic armed groups, the superpowers instigate or play a major role in supporting and directing a party to a conflict. These powers support the party that would maintain their long-term economic interests in the poor but endowed with rich natural resources. Their support is not visible, as they are not directly involved in the actual fighting. Thus, the local groups conduct the fighting, which is “proxy warfare” inside Africa. This strategy has helped major powers fulfill some of their exploitative economic objectives. However, the proxies themselves achieve their objectives rarely, except blood-shedding their own kind.
A former western leader called these proxy wars “the cheapest insurance in the world.” This statement truly reflects the limited political risks and human costs for western sponsors of the wars. But these conflicts, skirmishes, clashes and quarrels are tremendously costly for the naturally wealthy African countries in which they occur. During the cold war (1947-1991), central, eastern and southern African countries served as fertile grounds for proxy wars. The superpowers found it necessary to expand their spheres of influence. They have done this largely by promoting leadership in the African countries that would be sympathetic to their political and economic interests. West and East African countries, including Ethiopia have all been centers of proxy war during the cold war period. Using both diplomatic and military powers, the superpowers delineate areas that could be used as strategic military grounds.
As a result of these conflicts, several nations in Africa were economically, politically, and socially destabilized. Due to pervasive issues arising from these conflicts, the countries involved have retained to this day the painful legacy of the Cold War. Some of the coups in Africa reflected the possibility of proxy war into prominence.
Some African countries have been under pressure from the superpowers to act bellicosely in other neighboring African countries. Proxy wars have been prolonging insecurity and hooking countries into long-lasting poverty despite their endowment of rich natural resources. Also, they drained the limited foreign exchange reserves in these countries. These reserves have been shrinking fast, reversing the democratic gains. These have been accompanied by the resurgence of military coups. International research institutes have revealed that military spending in Africa exceeded billions of dollars.
Defense expenditures accounted for a certain percent of government spending across Africa. This share is believed to be higher in countries infested with conflicts. The military spending has been continuously rising in the past decades in those countries, including Ethiopia, that are fighting terrorist groups. The fight is widespread in desperately poor countries stretching across the continent. As these countries slide towards proxy warfare, the African region requires stronger “collective security” to prevent and avoid sliding into a painful era of fighting great power proxy wars.
The big powers avoid confronting each other directly. Instead, they provide poor African countries with weapons for fighting proxy wars. The poor countries would be forced into destructive warfare that reflects the interests of superpowers. It is believed that wise African leaders, including Ethiopian politicians, have kept the proxy war at bay as it mercilessly devours the poor people.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
BY GETACHEW MINAS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD THURSDAY 19 SEPTEMBER 2024
