With the recent news from Ankara about the series of meetings between the Ethiopian and Somali authorities, the bright light of hope for peace hung on the horizon of politics in the Horn, until it was overshadowed by the unexpectedly reckless speech by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed early last week.
It remains to be seen whether this disappointing statement by the Somali president would be the official last word from the Somali government, putting the final nail in the coffin of what the Turks call the Ankara Peace Process, in which both the Ethiopian and Somali people have placed much faith, hope, and expectations.
The reason for our hope was the impressive progress made recently under the Ankara Process, which was a series of indirect negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia mediated by the host country Turkey. The second phase of the Ankara Process, which concluded two weeks ago, was praised not only by the host government but by both sides of the negotiating parties, as well.
The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation issued a press release on the same day the second round of the talks concluded saying “During the talks on August 12-13, progress was made….Somalia is committed to participating in the upcoming third round of talks”. Similarly, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said “Ethiopia looks forward to having continued engagement that will ultimately help resolve current differences and restore normal relations.”
Nevertheless, there was a stark contrast between the tones of the two press releases, which could have been considered a red flag for what was to come later from the Somali side. The contrasting tones of the press releases by the two governments on the same topic issued almost at the same time reflect their predisposition and attitude toward each other.
For instance, the first paragraph of Ethiopia’s foreign ministry press release mentions Ethiopia and Somalia as neighborly countries. Even at the joint press briefing, he made in Ankara standing along with his Somali and Turkish counterparts, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister described the Somali government negotiating team as ‘Brothers’. “We definitely look forward to a more fruitful third-round discussion with our brothers from Somalia.”
On the other hand, there was nothing whatsoever in the entire content of the Somali press release or in the speech of the Somali foreign minister at the press briefing in Ankara that conveyed any idea about the special bond between Ethiopia and Somalia. After hearing the statement of the Ethiopian foreign minister addressing him as ‘brother’, the Somali foreign minister, instead of reciprocating appropriately, chose to restrict himself, praising the host nation, Turkye.
This contrast is inductive of the differing viewpoints and spirit the negotiating sides see one another and to be more specific, the lack of diplomatic niceties and open-heartedness on the part of the Somali government.
After all, both rounds of the Ankara peace talks went without a face-to-face engagement of negotiating parties. This happened because of the refusal of the Somali side to sit and talk with the Ethiopians. Given all these facts, no one would be surprised by what was heard later on from Mogadishu about the peace process.
The fiery speech of President Hassen Sheikh that stopped short of boycotting the Ankara process did not get as much attention from the major international media as expected. They have been closely following the developing tension between Somalia and Ethiopia, and they do not seem to be excited enough to dwell on the Hassen Sheikh speech. Perhaps, they have noticed that he had been swearing similar anti-negotiation statements before the start of the Ankara process last July. Thus they may just interpret the Somali president’s speech as nothing more than a diplomatic bravado, aimed at boosting the morale of his supporters, assuming a defiant image of a leader in full power and control.
And yet, the truth is, even after 32 years of continued foreign military force support in Somalia, its government, currently headed by Hassan Sheikh, is still struggling for its survival, and is still dependent on the African peacekeepers, ATMIS, whose major contributor is Ethiopia that provided tens of thousands of highly trained and war-hardened soldiers.
Hassan Shiekh regime officials are reiterating their commitment and readiness to ensure the national security and sovereignty of Somalia; but on the ground, they failed to maintain the security of the capital city Mogadishu, which has become a scene of a rising number of horrendous terrorist attacks incidents.
After the arrival of the good news from Ankara on July 13, the peaceful resolution of Ethio- Somali diplomatic row appeared to be within reach and peace seemed closer than ever. However, in less than a week, the Ankara process was thrown into limbo because of Hassan Sheikh’s inflammatory speech, which created a peace conundrum. As a result, Somalia became reluctant to follow through on the Ankara process despite the commitment it pledged before the global audience. The wavering and volatile attitude of the regime in Mogadishu proved to be another challenge to reaching an agreement and its effective implementation.
One of the foreign powers that fuel the misguided policy of the Mogadishu authorities is Ethiopias arch-foe. In the signing ceremony of a military pact between Egypt and Somalia, Hassan Sheikh shook hands warmly with his Egyptian counterpart a day after the conclusion of the second phase of the Ankara process. In its own right, the body language shown in the picture of the handshake reveals the nature of the power dynamics between the two leaders. The relationship is not one of equals, but one of master and servant.
With the signing of the agreement, the Mogadishu regime has essentially positioned Somalia as a Trojan horse for the implementation of the counter part’s malicious policy in the Horn which, if not foiled in time, will result in a cycle of violence that will never end. Things would be easy for Ethiopia’s arch-foe to provide support without blinking an eye to any anti-peace force in the Horn that works to destabilize Ethiopia.
Several community leaders in various regions of Somalia have already begun voicing their objections against the military pact with Ethiopias arch-foe. They know that such element is not coming to help Somalia maintain peace and the rule of law. They recall that elements were not eager to provide security support to Somalia over the last three decades when they needed it most. They knew Ethiopia’s enemy wanted to march in there just to serve its strategic interest, which is to make Somalia a launching pad to export violence and terror to neighboring Ethiopia. The majority of Somali clan leaders understand the presence of this party and its forces in Somalia would do much more harm than good to the interest of the Somali people.
Another point that makes us doubt whether Hassan Sheikh would bear the consequences of his exit from the Ankara peace process is that this would be bad news for the Turks, on whom his regime is heavily dependent. As one of the emerging world powers pushing for a strong influence in the Horn. Turkye seemed adamant about ensuring a successful conclusion of the Ankara process. The Turks believe their interests in Ethiopia and Somalia would be best served by maintaining peace in the Horn.
The Turks are already heavily involved in the Horn’s politics. The shuttle diplomacy of the Turkish foreign minister a few days before the start of the second phase of the Ankara process is quite revealing. He was in Addis Ababa to meet the Ethiopian prime minister before flying to Cairo to meet the Egyptian president. The Turks know that they need to exert diplomatic pressure on the negative role against the multilateral effort that was made to bring the Ankara peace process to fruition.
The Turks were trying to make the Ankara talks a success in the shortest time possible. The announced date for the second round of the Ankara talks, as stated at the end of the first round in early July was September 2. But the second meeting was held much earlier than the set timetable, August 12-13. The question that should be asked here is what are the Turks racing against? Time will tell soon. Regional bodies like AU and IGAD should scrutinize and react to the move of the Ethiopia’s arch-enemy in Somalia. Ethiopians and Somalilanders should join hands, stand their ground, keep on advocating peace, and be ready for any eventualities.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
The Ethiopian herald September 1/2024
