بقلم : احمد محمد
أعلن البنك الوطني الإثيوبيى من تدابير السياسة النقدية التي يتم اتخاذها لخفض التضخم حيث يستخدم البنك الوطني السياسة النقدية في مواجهة التقلبات الاقتصادية وتحقيق استقرار الأسعار، وهو ما يعني انخفاض التضخم واستقراره.
و إن أداء الاقتصاد الكلي في إثيوبيا لا يزال إيجابيا وسط التضخم الحاد والجفاف والاشتباكات في أجزاء مختلفة من البلاد.
وإن إثيوبيا ، كانت تعد من أحد الاقتصادات الأسرع نموًا في إفريقيا ، حيث تعاني حاليا من نقص حاد في احتياطي العملات الأجنبية ,وتسجل واحد من أعلى معدلات التضخم ، والتي تفاقمت بسبب الصراعات في تيغري و القتال الدائر الآن في منطقة أمهرا.
وكان الاقتصاد الإثيوبي ينتعش من آثار جائحة كورونا والحرب في منطقة تيغراي حتى اندلعت جولة أخرى من الصراع في منطقة أمهرا.
,ويتسبب معدل التضخم الحالي ، الذي يتجاوز 30 في المائة ، في اختلال التوازن في الاقتصاد الكلي ، مما يؤثر على قدرة الحكومة على سداد الديون ، ويزيد من حدة نقص العملة الأجنبية .
و أن التضخم المرتفع في اثيوبيا أضعف القوة الشرائية للبر الإثيوبي وقلص الحجم والأصناف التي يمكن للمستهلكين شراؤها ، مضيفًا أن الوضع يدفع المتقاعدين وأصحاب الدخل الثابت وذوي الدخل المنخفض إلى الفقر المدقع.
وأعلنت الحكومة بزيادة طفيفة في الميزانية الوطنية هذا العام كجزء من استراتيجية الحكومة لاحتواء التضخم بينما تخفض الحكومة الإنفاق وتعلق التوظيف وتطبق سياسات مثل فرانكو فالوتا.
وأدت الزيادة في سعر الوقود في السوق الدولية إلى تفاقم احتياطي العملات الأجنبية المتضائل في البنك لوطني الإثيوبي – كما ساهم بشكل سلبي في التضخم المستورد وأعباء الديون.
وفي وقت سابق أعلنت الحكومة انها سددت الدين بنسبة 28 في المائة في الميزانية الماضية ، كان من الممكن إنفاقها على المشاريع المناصرة للفقراء وتعزيز قطاع الزراعة. ،
ووفق لوجهة النظري فإن الصراعات التي حدثت في أجزاء مختلفة من البلاد قد أثرت أيضا بشدة على الإنفاق الحكومي والاستثمارات الخاصة والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر.
وأنه على الرغم من كل هذه التحديات ، فقد شهد الاقتصاد الإثيوبي نموًا إيجابيًا بمعدل أكثر من 6% ووفقًا للبيانات الحكومية.
ولكن يبدو من الصعب أن تسجل البلاد نموًا بينما لا يستطيع المواطنون الحصول على وجبة في يوم واحد. ويرجع ذلك إلى أن النمو الاقتصادي يُحسب على أساس نمو الناتج المحلي للبلاد الذي يشمل الإنتاج الزراعي وتصنيع السلع والخدمات والتصدير وبناء الطرق والمرافق الصحية والمدارس وما إلى ذلك في فترة زمنية معينة.
ومن تدابير السياسة النقدية التي اتخاذها البنك الوطني الإثيوبي لخفض التضخم يتمثل قاعدة جديدة تقيد التوسع الائتماني السنوي للبنوك إلى 14٪.
وتشيرالاحصائية بأن الإقراض التجاري في إثيوبيا ارتفع في السنوات الأخيرة. في ال12 شهرًا ، أقرضت البنوك ما مجموعه 382 مليار بر (6.9 مليار دولار) مقارنة بـ 209.6 مليار بر (3.8 مليار دولار) التي أقرضت في العام السابق وذلك بزيادة قدرها 80٪ من السنة السابقة.
ويعتقد المسؤولون في البنك الوطني الإثيوبي أن هذه الزيادة في الإقراض الصارخة في كمية النقد المتداول في الاقتصاد الوطني مسؤولة جزئيًا عن المستويات المرتفعة للتضخم التي تشهدها الدولة.
ويأمل البنك الوطني أن يساعد الحد الائتماني الجديد للبنوك في خفض التضخم إلى أقل من 20٪ بحلول عام 2024 وأقل من 10٪ بحلول عام 2025 و إن هذا الإجراء جزء مهم من خفض التضخم بشكل مستدام.
وفي نفس السياق إن الميزانية التي أقرها البرلمان للاستثمارات التي تديرها الدولة أقل من الميزانية السابقة وبناءا على هذا من غير المرجح أن تقوم الحكومة باستثمارات في هذه السنة المالية الإثيوبية ووستخفض انفاقها.
وإن عجز الميزانية الحالية لإثيوبيا يمثل أقل من 4 في المائة من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي ، مشيرا إلى أن العجز لم يخرج عن السيطرة.
ومن تدابيرالسياسة النقدية الثانية التي اتخاذها البنك الوطني الإثيوبي يتمثل في السعرالفائدة الذي تدفعه البنوك التجارية للبنك الوطني للحصول على قرض طارئ لأجل التسهيلات وبناءا على القرار الجديد ستزيد من 16 في المائة إلى 18 في المائة.
ومن تدابيرالسياسة النقدية الثالثة تتمثل في القطاعات التصدير الرئيسية، وخاصة بالنسبة للمصدرين المنخرطين في التصنيع،و سيتم تحسين متطلبات تسليم العملات الصعبة من 70% للبنك و30% للعميل ,بينما القرارالجديد 50% للبنك و%50 للعميل.
وأخيرتحتاج الحكومة إلى إعطاء الأولوية لمعالجة انخفاض احتياطيات العملات الأجنبية وأسعار الصرف بالإضافة إلى مشاكل التضخم التي تقف شامخة من بين العوامل التي تسهم في اختلال التوازن الاقتصادي الكلي.
ويجب على الحكومة أيضًا تعظيم صادراتها من حيث الحجم ونوع العناصر ، وتقليل الاستيراد ، وخفض معدل التوظيف ، وإجراء إصلاحات في السياسات ، وتحرير قطاعي البنوك والاتصالات ، ومعالجة الفساد وتحسين سهولة ممارسة الأعمال التجارية.
ويجب أيضا حسم التحديات الأمنية من خلال محادثات السلام والحوار لتعظيم الإنتاج الزراعي ولزيادة الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر .
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