Pressing response to withstand drought, El Niño effects

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BY EPHREM ANDARGACHEW

The Greater Horn of Africa has faced recurrent droughts. Every year, the drought-affected areas in East Africa have been demanding urgent government and concerned bodies’ support for humanitarian assistance and fodder.

The Horn countries have experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons that have had serious impacts on the lives of people, animals, and biodiversity. They also faced a prolonged drought and one of the driest periods in the region.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) 2023 report, “across the region, the drought affected 36.1 million people, including 24.1 million in Ethiopia, 7.8 million in Somalia, and 4.2 million in Kenya. It affects livestock production, livelihoods and brings heavy economic losses.

The negative effects of drought coupled with serious water shortages have forced hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes in search of water and food, leading to high levels of malnutrition. Additionally, hundreds of schools have closed down as attendance and dropout numbers have decreased and increased, respectively.

The Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) 2022 statement stated that the failed consecutive rainfall seasons were characterized by a delayed start, irregular distribution, and below-average cumulative seasonal rains, while the temperatures remained above average across the seasons.

This, in turn, creates preceding and compounding impacts such as food insecurity, desert locusts, conflict and insecurity over resources, floods, and macroeconomic factors. Because of the drought and its impacts, it was the longest drought period recorded in the region within 40 years. IGAD, as a regional institution, gave direction and established platforms to withstand and reverse the negative impact of drought.

Although member states usually recognized the harshness of the drought situation and reached an agreement to look for immediate assistance and rethink the region’s approach to resilience, they could not accelerate a long-term response to halt the impacts of the drought. They are also reluctant to implement drought-resilience programs and initiatives. As a result, rain-fed agriculture, water, tourism, and forestry become vulnerable in the region.

Currently, IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) also states the June to September 2023 forecast. Accordingly, the forecast indicated that high chances of drier-than usual conditions across the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) would likely occur. Hence, Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Uganda, and much of South Sudan and Sudan are expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the season.

Besides, ICPAC’s analysis confirms an increased likelihood of warmer than usual conditions over the entire region, particularly over northern Sudan, parts of southern and central to western Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya, central and northern Somalia, and coastal parts of Tanzania.

Indeed, the June-September rainfall season is very necessary for the northern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, where it contributes to more than 50% of the annual total rainfall. Losing this season’s rain will greatly affect the region.

ICPAC Director, Guleid Artan said that “as the conditions we forecast could increase, food security in the region faces acute problems. Depressed rainfalls, coupled with warmer temperatures, are likely to affect crop productivity, with the risk of crop wilting and a hastened decline in pasture and water availability.”

He appealed to IGAD’s partners to “stay mobilized and continue to respond to the crisis where 49 million people are still highly food insecure in the IGAD region.” In most parts of the region, above-average rainfall was recorded during the March to May 2023 season, bringing some respite to the communities most affected by five consecutive failed rainfall seasons in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, he stated.

ICPAC Climate Modeling Expert Hussen Seid explained that “it is now very likely that we will transition from La Niña to El Niño between July and September. At this stage, there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño, but in general, it is associated with depressed rainfall between June and September in the north of the region and wetter conditions between October and December in the equatorial parts. So, we must get prepared for much wetter weather towards the end of the year. We encourage our users to consult our weekly and monthly updates that have a high degree of predictability.”

Many areas of Ethiopia, especially the Borana, are indeed affected seriously, and the impact was worse than before at the end of 2022. The Borana and some parts of the country’s livestock, including cattle, goats, and sheep, were severely affected by the drought. The drought that occurred in the Borena Zone caused great damage to people and animals. It exposed over 807 thousand people to emergency aid, and over 3.3 million animals have died. Hence, due to the lack of rain in the last three years, more than 800,000 people have been exposed to severe problems.

Despite the seriousness and severity of the problems caused by the drought, Ethiopia has made various efforts to save the lives of its people. The government, the people, and the stakeholders have collaborated to save the people. The country also made various efforts to utilize this year’s February-May rain. Hence, the people in Borena secured fodder and cultivated crops.

According to Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahamed, animal fodder and sesame have been extensively cultivated in Borena, utilizing the recent rains. The transformation from a site of drought to productivity in less than a year is promising. “If we are wise in conserving water, we will overcome times of crisis.”

The people, the government, and the concerned bodies indeed combined efforts helped to pass the drought and the effects of climate change this and last year in the Borena area in particular, and the Horn in general. These efforts should continue in the coming rainy season in water management and conservation tasks to withstand the negative impact of the rainfall problems that occur due to the shortage of rain from June to September. It is also important to accelerate the building of small dams in the area that can retain rainwater to alleviate the water shortage in the local community.

Furthermore, it is vital to be prepared for the negative impact of El Niño since it causes floods and related problems. Following the forecast attentively is significant since it indicates that high chances of drier-than-usual conditions across the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are likely to occur.

The Ethiopian Herald June 4/2023

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