Horn of Africa in foreign eyes

The Horn of Africa is a region of several geopolitical unrests that resulted from natural and manmade crises. The natural crises include pandemics, climate changes, floods and storms, droughts, and huge forest fires. The manmade crises involved geopolitical shifts, including border disputes, global terrorism, the media, and financial entities. These entities have immense power and proved to be more powerful than some of the countries of the Horn.

Experts assert that when these natural and manmade forces operate jointly, they become immensely difficult for any country, including Ethiopia, to deal with. In foreign eyes, the Horn countries are, therefore, gullible, susceptible, and dependent on the level of support they get from the big powers. Due to internal conflicts, the Horn is credulous and trusts the donors that offer it assistance to overcome political, economic, and social crises. These crises are actually initiated by would-be donors of aid. This donation is a trap that is enclosed in diplomatic language.

The capacity of countries of the Horn that developed their own socioeconomic policies and programs has been undermined by donors. Aid recipients have no alternative but accept policies revised by donors. The purpose of the revision is to ensure that the interests of donors are incorporated in the development plans and programs of aid recipient countries.

The donor countries have institutional instruments such as international banks and financial institutions. These institutions seem to face the fact that borrowing countries are usually unable to meet their financial obligations. Some of these borrowers fail to service their debts, in which case the lenders reschedule debt repayment modalities. This measure further subdued the borrowing countries of the Horn region to the lending global financial institutions. Since some of these countries responded to the reality in different ways, they ended up economically stagnant or became aid dependents. These countries, including Ethiopia, seem to lead others in the field of economic development financed by foreign financial sources that have hidden interests.

Those agents of global financial institutions have targeted the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, for geopolitical and economic dislocations. They used natural and manmade crises as points of entry. The natural crises are sometimes uncontrollable, inaccessible, and too difficult to grasp. But donors and global financial institutions evade these crises and focus on manmade crises. Experts are of the opinion that the extent to which the change is made by financial institutions is related to geopolitical power play.

A decision by the Horn country depends on the quality of leadership it has. This, in turn, relies on the ability of leaders to notice the changes and on their vision of how to handle these changes. The main concern with handling changes is its unpredictable consequences. The leaders of the Horn countries should, therefore, have to come out with an overall “grand strategy”. In this strategy, the actors would be well-versed, highly experienced and knowledgeable experts about the political, economic and social issues in the region.

These leaders may anticipate events, and then prepare for the possible negative impacts related to the Horn countries. These leaders will be prepared to protect and advance their collective regional interests by fixing their alien forces and contenders. They will be emerging as defenders of the people they lead as beneficiaries of socioeconomic development.

However, not all countries of the region are able to benefit because they do not have visionary leaders who have the capacity to predict the dangers they would face. But, most of them, including Ethiopian leaders, are able to seize arising opportunities, and build confidence in the people they lead. This capacity depends on the advancement of technology and the growth of the economy, political stability, and “moral capital” of the people.

An intellectual capacity that depends on common sense is capable of designing and advancing the interests of the Ethiopian people. These people want to be engaged in the process of the economic development of their country, and generate income. They may save or invest income for creating productive capacity that generates employment and income.

In the field of politics, it is reported that a few Africans of the Horn region keep changing at points of political or socio-economic convenience. In times of conflict, these people tend to extend instability that begins in their country and extends to another. These countries of the Horn have yet to respond to the challenges of “multiple loyalties” and how to respond to them.

Also, there exist uncontrollable agents of disorder that engage countries of the Horn in terrorism. These agents may be global institutions that engage in anti-social activities that do not respect the Horn states, including Ethiopia. These states are supposed to be at the mercy of those agencies of neocolonialism that tend to have more resources and power than several African countries combined. These agencies tend to be located in and are protected by global powers. This revealed their hidden evil intent that is seriously affecting the African countries. Consequently, those agencies begin to dictate what small countries should do.

Few countries have the capacity to defend themselves against external forces. The Horn countries, therefore, have to look for guidance on what to do and how to devote time and resources to achieve all types of external guidance. This guidance emanates from those financial institutions located and operating in the developed countries.

Experts point out that it means nothing to weak power holders who just wait for external guidance. Experts reveal that ignoring research on geopolitics countries in the Horn region have become susceptible to external manipulators. This event will definitely continue if there is no change that may confront external agents.

If the region continues to be dependent on alien powers on various issues, it will be incapacitated to determine its future. Thus, countries of the Horn tended to repeatedly fail to fulfill their duties to the regional financial agencies. In some cases, these countries do not expect other entities to pay their debts. They, therefore, end up begging for “aid” from global donors or “development partners” that enjoy putting severe conditions.

The Horn countries, however, would be “forced” to prepare development projects instantly as they do not have visionary long-term plans during conflicts. Yet, the planners have the capacity to forecast the dangers, see opportunities, and instill confidence in their countries.

The Horn countries, including Ethiopia, tend to follow socioeconomic guidelines designed by external financial institutions, which intend to spread conflicts. This leads the Horn countries to several clusters of conflicts which are both distinct and similar. These conflicts are within the Horn region and are guided by the search for a common identity. This has become difficult to achieve as the peoples in each country of the Horn refuse to be united.

Experts point out that the artificiality of the borders is reinforced by having common people who live in two or more states of the Horn. They often do not recognize those borders. Each country, therefore, has the problem of acceptability within itself, within the Horn, and within the continent of Africa.

The Horn region has its distinctive attraction to the global powers because of its strategic location. These powers have intentions for controlling access to the region’s resources. It links different continents through the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Mediterranean Sea. The challenge, however, is whether the countries of the Horn have distinct, similar, and positive prospects to advance their interests.

Generally, they started badly due to disasters such as droughts, floods, and contagious diseases. Also, experts point out that power rivalries, envy, and suspicions within the Horn are factors that contribute to difficulties. These difficulties may lead to unhappy and miserable situations in the region and the countries in it. The region is filled with promises in terms of natural wealth, and it is of strategic interest mainly to global forces. However, it suffers multiple conflicts within each country, including Ethiopia, and across the various countries.

The Horn countries, particularly Ethiopia, host the AU institutions that should promote regional peace and economic growth. But the Horn region enjoys neither peace nor development, mainly because of interrelated factors. There is, for example, intense rivalry, envy, and competition that negate cooperation. Also, problems of acceptability, internal conflicts, and frictions with neighboring countries deter peace and security in the region. Studies reveal that people in the Horn region, particularly those at the borders, refuse to identify with the government of the country in which they live.

Consequently, their loyalty to the given state “disappears or it never existed.” In this situation, there are people at the border whose citizenship loyalty is not guaranteed. There is, therefore, a need to link loyalty of the people through development cooperation and aid or assistance. Thus, aid becomes an instrument for geopolitical power and turning states into proxies. But aid increases dependency that perpetuates regional instability at the Horn.

BY GETACHEW MINAS

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 2025

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