The Horn of Africa has been deprived of peace and stability due to armed conflicts, violent crimes, religious extremism, social violence and political instability. Conflicts and instability in the region are mainly concentrated on or near the border areas spreading out into the hinterland by warlords. Ethiopia has been confronted with these agents of war and terror.
Being located at a strategic area in the Horn and as the most populous country in the region, Ethiopia has a relatively stronger power than the neighboring countries. Its influence is, therefore, growing through time as its economic and political potential developed. As to some scholars, the countries of the region do recognize the leading role of Ethiopia due to its historic link with nearly all of them. The Horn countries respectfully entitle Ethiopia with the privilege of patrolling the region for maintaining peace and order. This is an immense responsibility as the region is prone to violent conflicts.
The Horn is known for various forms of cross border disputes and security threats. For years, the region has been exposed to conflicts, skirmishes and wars between countries. It has also experienced secessionist movements, intrastate conflicts, foreign intrusions, terrorist attacks and piracy.
On the other hand, most countries in the Horn have authoritarian and autocratic systems of government. These governments lacked popular legitimacy, cultures of democracy, human rights and rule of law. Some of these countries also pursued national and regional policies that gained mistrust of neighboring countries. They also engaged in political rivalry with the countries of the Horn. In some of these states, institutions are weak and unstable. Also, undefended territorial boundaries invited external and internal challenges. Such challenges are known to have weakened the Horn countries.
The Horn region is faced with contentions over the territories of countries, leading to regional insecurities. These in turn are causing problems for human lives and economic viability. There are also some regional conflicts, skirmishes and insecurity in the Horn area that arises from failed states in the region that are poorly governed. The border areas of these countries tend to be out of the control of the authority of central governments.
In its peacekeeping role, the Ethiopian government has been consistent in enhancing peace, law and order in these countries. Some neighboring countries have been immersed in civil wars, border disputes and civil disorders in the past decades. These countries also faced problems of sharing trans-boundary resources, including rivers. The challenges to peace and security in the Horn countries include issues of pastoral and ethnic conflict over resource. These challenges include water sharing, fishery, access to ports and climate changes.
The most serious contention is related to interstate disputes over “water sources.” The resolution of such dispute is time consuming and difficult to settle fairly. Those contesting countries have different water requirements related to their population size. Even if there is consent on the sharing of river waters, the right amount of distribution to each country seems to be difficult. Also the fair management of access to trans-boundary water requires special scientific skills.
Even then, there may be unique and hidden political disputes related to water sharing. The tension between Egypt and Ethiopia, for example, has entered a new critical phase. Following the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt expressed its opposition to the project. This has led to rising tension between the two countries with huge implication to their relations. The construction of the dam has been progressing though there is a conspiracy on its progress. The Egyptians have done what they could to impede the construction of the dam. Despite being provoked by alien forces, Ethiopia continued its commitment to peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
The major challenges for peace and security in the Horn have been cross-border and regional land use conflicts. Other challenges include migration and settlement issues and cross border disputes over contested regions. Cross-border conflict is becoming a great threat to peace along the borders of Ethiopia, which may provoke the peace keeping force of the country in the Horn area.
Other problems include environmental and health susceptibilities that have made the Horn people unable to produce agricultural outputs enough to feed themselves. Also, climate variations, ecological ruins, forced migration, and financial and social downgrading have led to social conflicts.
The use of food and land as political weapons are other problems of peace in the Horn region. People starved to death because of shortage of food due to drought and shortage of rain. These natural disasters subjected the people of the Horn countries to look for external aid.
Social conflicts and fights in the countries of the Horn affect neighboring communities, including pastoralists. Also health related problems in these countries affect most of the youth and productive labor force. This results in the loss of financial and social standing of the young people of the region. The existence of unruly youth within communities causes fear that lead to conflicts.
Internecine social conflicts that are not resolved by the governments in time may challenge peace and security in the Horn. The major cause of conflict is related to “center–periphery” confrontation with most communities facing economic marginalization and political exclusion. Related to this, there is inequitable sharing of national resources, accompanied by lack of representation in the structures of governments.
Throughout the Horn region, political conflict is defined by identity politics. Being committed to peace and stability in the region, Ethiopian troops have been participating in peace-keeping mission to resolve identity issues.
One of the reasons for lack of peace in the Horn region has been social identity. This has been politicized around ethnic, tribal, and clan differences not just to contest democratically but to challenge the political entities. The Horn region is prone to identity based trans-border disputes, crime, piracy, terrorism, and insurgency. It is also a center of violent extremism which includes organized crime, mobilization of armed groups, and illicit trade and trafficking. Experts have identified it as a region exposed to external terrorist groups due to negligent border controls by underpaid security forces.
Consequently, the Horn region has become a major scene of war and terror. The common people, who are farmers, pastoralists, traders and peaceful residents, have been scared of living in their place of origin due to the war on terrorism. The peacekeeping forces, including the Ethiopian forces, have been trying to control the terrorist acts in the Horn region.
Experts have noted that failed or weak states are assumed to be safe for terrorists. It is a fact that a few countries in the Horn are examples of failed states. They are a focus of attention in the fight against terrorism. The proximity of the Horn region to the Middle East has attracted counterterrorism operations across the sea. These operations have become major challenges to Ethiopia that wants to keep peace and security in the Horn area.
One of the major challenges is internal financial problem that constrains Ethiopia. It is one of the countries with low per capita income in the region. Also, high cost of food, rising prices of raw materials for the manufacturing sector, and imported inflation are causing economic difficulties in the country. The country is endeavoring to overcome all its economic and financial difficulties accumulated in previous and current years. Moreover, it is facing internal social skirmishes, conflicts and wars the effects of which are impediments to economic growth and development.
According to the UNDP report and the Human Development Index, Ethiopia is among the poor countries in the world. However, several international economic institutions predicted that Ethiopia will have high economic growth in the coming few years. It is predicted that it will also be one of the fastest growing economies compared to the other non-oil producing African countries. This prediction is based on the post-war situations in the country. During the internecine conflicts and wars, Ethiopia’s economic and social infrastructures, including some manufacturing enterprises have been destroyed. These negative impacts on the economy have also caused low production and productivity, unemployment, low income along with inflation.
However, these negative effects have resulted in serious challenges including social dissatisfaction due to lack of opportunities for the new labor force. Those seeking jobs continue to be dependent on their families for a certain period of time. These negative economic and social trends will be reversed with commitment to peace, stability and order in the Horn region. Ethiopia is doing its best in reversing the negative factors that destabilize this region.
Ethiopia has experienced that conflicts in the Horn countries hinder developmental aspirants. These conflicts are mostly interlinked, calling for mutual peace initiatives. Consequently, weaker states are against any conflicts that affect their socioeconomic progress. They try to counter states that are stronger in the Horn region such as Ethiopia. As a result, the power of Ethiopia in the region is opposed by the combined efforts of smaller states near and around it.
Also, regional players and alien powers attempt to weaken the country through their proxies and bandas. Ethiopia’s commitment to peace and stability in the region is an obstruction to alien forces that are interested in the exploitation of the natural resources of the Horn region. These powers also engage the countries of this region in long lasting confrontations, social conflicts and even wars. In so doing, they sell arms to warring factions or countries with the objective of weakening each and every one of them. Weak nations are exposed to exploitation of their resources by the powers or their proxies.
Ethiopia’s commitment to the stability of the Horn is an obstacle to the fulfillment of the goal of alien forces of subjugating the region. Moreover, the country has one of the biggest military forces in the region making it capable of defending itself and the Horn area. Its army is experienced and hardened by wars as a result of protracted battles.
Moreover, it is the second most populous country in Africa, making its armed strength formidable. However, it has been facing political instability due to the interference of alien powers in its internal affairs. These forces have been using chaotic neighboring countries as excuses for encouraging disputes along its borders. But, Ethiopia has been defending its border while maintaining law and order as well as providing services to the people that are engaged in economic activities. Simultaneously, it has been observing peace and stability in the neighboring countries of the Horn of Africa.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
BY GETACHEW MINAS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SATURDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2024
